The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lars Nootbaar ($2,300): Outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals
Finding a min-priced player at Coors Field will always be a great value. Lars Nootbaar fits that description on Tuesday. He’s projected to bat sixth for the Cardinals, who have a slate-high 6.4 implied run total. In his second year in the major leagues, Nootbaar has a .155 ISO and five home runs over his 150 plate appearances. His 8.3% barrel percentage nearly doubles what he had last season, so he is a strong bat in this powerful lineup.
Nootbaar has a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his last 11 games despite not recording too many DraftKings points. A few hits for Nootbaar, and he could certainly be in the optimal lineup due to his meager price. The Rockies will start right-hander Ryan Feltner, who is making his ninth start this season. More on Feltner and the Cardinals matchup later, but Nootbaar is one of three batters who will get the platoon split advantage.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Max Muncy ($2,700): Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Several Cardinals batters are bargain values on FanDuel as well, but Max Muncy also has a 91% Bargain Rating. Having dual eligibility at a cheap price will increase his ownership, but Muncy has been hitting very well lately. He has a positive Plus/MInus in seven-straight games with two home runs and at least one hit in six of those seven games. Muncy continues to bat in the heart of this Dodgers lineup.
The Twins will trot out Joe Ryan, who leads the team in wins, strikeouts, and quality starts. His numbers have decreased since last season, especially against left-handed batters. Ryan is striking out just 16.9% of left-handed hitters compared to 30.4% of right-handed hitters. The Dodgers are implied for 4.9 runs in this matchup, and Muncy is in a particularly great spot on FanDuel as he is tied for the lowest price in this lineup.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani ($10,300 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel) at Oakland Athletics
Leading THE BAT ceiling pitcher projections is Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani. With Mike Trout injured, Ohtani is the only player keeping this team afloat. He has recorded double-digit strikeouts in six of his last seven games while averaging 10.6 strikeouts per game over that time. Ohtani has also allowed just 12 earned runs in his last 57.2 innings pitched. Ownership is expected to be spread out at pitcher tonight, but Ohtani barely comes in as the highest-owned.
The Athletics own the seventh-highest strikeout rate and the second-lowest wOBA. Ohtani has a career-high 35.9% strikeout rate this season as THE BAT has him projected for 7.41 strikeouts in this matchup. A 2.8 implied run total for the Athletics is the lowest on the slate as the Angels are -185 road favorites. The price tag has risen, but Ohtani is still in a fantastic spot tonight.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) at Boston Red Sox
Ronald Acuna Jr. comes in at a very reasonable price on both sites as the Braves open up a series at Fenway Park against the Red Sox. On this sizeable 14-game slate, the Braves have the third-highest total at 5.4 runs. Acuna’s slow start has led to just a .139 ISO, which is by far the lowest he has had in the major leagues. However, his 49.3% hard-hit rate and a 13.1% barrel percentage are still very high, and he has averaged 13.5 DraftKings points per game over his last four games.
While Acuna continues to heat up, a matchup against 42-year-old southpaw Rich Hill awaits him. Hill has not even sniffed 90 MPH on his fastball since 2019. His 1.32 WHIP and 4.52 ERA are the highest they have been since the 2014 season. Acuna’s ISO has risen to .191 against left-handed pitchers this season, so getting the platoon split is a fairly significant advantage. Overall, it’s an excellent matchup for one of the league’s best hitters.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the St. Louis Cardinals. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Cardinals have seven batters in the top eight in projected ownership. They’re not sneaking up on anyone tonight.
The Cardinals have won seven-straight games and are leading the NL Central by two games over the Brewers. This stack will be very popular for the next three games as they open up a series in Coors Field. Expect the Cardinals’ run totals to continue to rise as they have averaged 5.6 runs per game during their winning streak.
Lead-off hitter Dylan Carlson only has a 26.4% hard-hit rate this season, which has led to a career-low .159 ISO. He has done most of his damage against left-handed pitchers, but Carlson is still tough to ignore at a reasonable salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Nolan Gorman is also relatively cheap and comes in with the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Gorman has a .213 ISO and a 15.2% barrel percentage in his rookie season, and those numbers increase against right-handed pitchers.
Now we get into the high-priced players with Paul Goldschmidt, who leads the Cardinals in nearly every hitting statistic. The veteran has a career-high .282 ISO and .437 wOBA. Being the highest-priced player on DraftKings may be intimidating, but Goldschmidt is arguably the best hitter in the best spot on this slate.
In his second season with the Cardinals, Nolan Arenado has a .250 ISO and a career-high 8.6% barrel percentage. He has hit a home run in four of his last eight games and is now hitting over .300 for the first time since June. Arenado is batting .476 in August, so he’s red hot at the moment.
Tyler O’Neill may be the player of choice to avoid in this stack and go with a cheaper option, especially on DraftKings. He has a career-low .124 ISO and a 28.6% strikeout rate. However, his double-digit barrel percentage is still respectable, and he is projected to bat No. 5 for this powerful Cardinals lineup.
Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner is in for a tough night against this Cardinals team who ranks bottom five in strikeout rate and seventh in runs scored. Fletner has surprisingly pitched better at Coors Field but has a 5.75 ERA through eight starts this season. The Cardinals will have no trouble getting to Feltner and right into the Rockies bullpen that ranks last in K/9.
