The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
TJ Friedl ($2,100): Outfielder, Cincinnati Reds
Getting his first significant big league action, Friedl has impressed over the last 10 games with a +5.62 Plus/Minus rating.
In 41 games this season, Friedl has a .252 batting average with 16 RBI and two long bombs. He had his best game of the year on Saturday with three hits and a homer for a total of 24 DraftKings points.
The Reds face right-hander Miles Mikolas on the mound, who is 10-10 with a 3.35 ERA. Give Friedl a shot tonight at the end of your lineup for an upside play.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Jon Berti ($2,700): Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Miami Marlins
The speedy middle infielder will not launch many balls out of the ballpark, but he is a versatile weapon for the Marlins.
He leads the majors with 31 stolen bases on the season to go with his .259 batting average and .709 OPS. His FanDuel salary has dropped $800 over the last month, putting him in potential bargain territory.
Berti’s ceiling is capped, but he prefers right-handed pitching and gets righty Tony Gonsolin on the mound for the Dodgers tonight. Gonsolin has had an incredible year with his 16-1 record and 2.10 ERA.
Berti may be an interesting contrarian value tonight for tournament formats.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Corbin Burnes ($10,400 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Burnes leads the National League with 190 strikeouts and has defended his Cy Young Award from last season with a 9-6 record and 2.84 ERA.
He will need to shake off the disaster of a start he experienced against the Dodgers on August 23. Burnes gave up six hits and seven earned runs in less than four innings to post a negative fantasy score.
Expect better results against the Pirates tonight, who are near the bottom in team batting and home runs. Burnes will be motivated to reach the high ceiling his strikeout rate provides.
Hitter
Paul Goldschmidt ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) at Cincinnati Reds
Twelve years into his major league career, Goldschmidt is still getting better with age. The seven-time All-Star is leading the major leagues with a .338 batting average and 1.051 OPS.
Goldschmidt has an insane .595 wOBA against right-handers this season but also does pretty well against lefties, with a .405 wOBA and .255 ISO.
The Reds have not announced a starter as of this writing, but Goldschmidt will be ready and waiting. He has a +5.35 Plus/Minus rating over his last 10 games, including a 41-point bonanza last Thursday against the Cubs.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Phillies.
When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Phillies travel cross-country for an early-week series in Arizona tonight. They will face veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner, who has struggled mightily this season with a 6-13 record and 4.53 ERA. Bumgarner would be a fantasy lineup avoidance in his prime, but his best days are well behind him now.
Kyle Schwarber leads the stack in salary and continues to lead the National League with 35 home runs and 162 strikeouts. He has been more bust than boom over his last 10 games with a -2.43 Plus/Minus rating.
Standout catcher J.T. Realmuto has jumped $900 in salary since mid-August. He has seven double-digit DraftKings totals in his last 11 games. The most expensive catcher on the slate is worth the price tag tonight.
Bryce Harper notched a single in all three games against Pittsburgh in his first series back from injury. Look for a little more power production tonight from Harper, who had 15 home runs in his first 64 games of 2022.
Rhys Hoskins and Nick Castellanos round out the stack, and both prefer left-handers on the mound. Hoskins has a .416 wOBA and .284 ISO vs. lefties, and Castellanos is just a bit lower with a .351 wOBA and .190 ISO.
If the Phillies can shake off the jet lag early, look for them to put up some runs in Arizona with a juicy matchup against Bumgarner.
