The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Franchy Cordero ($2,000): First Baseman/Outfielder, Boston Red Sox
Franchy Cordero has a great track record for hitting the ball hard, but that’s not reflected in his salary on Wednesday’s docket. The Boston Red Sox first baseman carries a bargain salary of $2,000 tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays, making him our top bargain option at DraftKings.
Analytically, Cordero has some noteworthy benchmarks. The soon-to-be 28-year-old delivers a 12.0% barrel rate and 44.4% hard-hit rate, resulting in a respectable .405 expected slugging percentage. Still, Cordero is below is career norms and should deliver quality plate appearances to end the season.
More recently, he’s been able to translate his metrics to productive at-bats. All of Cordero’s last four hits have gone for extra bases, including three doubles and a home run. Moreover, three of those hits have come at home, elevating his slugging percentage to .418 at Fenway Park, compared to just .320 everywhere else.
There are a few factors working in Cordero’s favor tonight, none of which are reflected in his salary. As such, he’s our preferred play on DK slates, leading the way in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Joey Gallo ($2,500): Outfielder, Los Angeles Dodgers
Not that the Los Angeles Dodgers needed it, but Joey Gallo has been a revelation since being acquired at the trade deadline. In 13 games with the NL West leaders, Gallo has a .645 slugging percentage and is expected to continue his tirade Wednesday against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Gallo couldn’t figure things out with the New York Yankees, compiling a .660 on-base plus slugging percentage in two seasons in the Big Apple. Still, that didn’t diminish his advanced metrics, as Gallo ranked among the elite hitters in a few noteworthy categories.
The two-time All-Star ranks in the top 2% of MLB hitters in barrel rate and top 6% in hard-hit percentage while putting up one of the best walk rates at 14.5%. Although it didn’t work for him in New York, everything’s turning up Gallo in LA.
That’s bad news for Adrian Houser, who has been serving taters for the Brew Crew all season. Houser is getting knocked around to the tune of a .422 expected slugging percentage, 39.9% hard-hit rate, and 4.69 expected earned run average. All of which is contributing to Gallo’s top-tier fantasy ceiling at a discounted price.
According to THE BAT X projections, the Dodgers’ outfielder is the top bargain available at FanDuel.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shane McClanahan ($10,900 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Shane McClanahan‘s breakout season continues Wednesday when he takes to the mound against the Los Angeles Angels. The Tampa Bay Rays ace leads our median and ceiling projections and is the premier pitching option available.
Through the first five months of the season, McClanahan ranks third among American League pitchers with a 2.29 earned run average, allowing the second-fewest walks and hits per inning pitched in the majors. More importantly, he has the analytics to back up sustained production.
McClanahan rates among the game’s best in several benchmarks, ranking in the 93rd percentile in strikeout rate and expected earned run average and the 96th percentile in whiff rate. He has an unforgiving four-pitch mix, inducing a 30.2% whiff rate on three of his offerings.
The Halos have been one of the worst teams in the league, thanks in large part to their ineffective approach at the plate. To this point in the season, Angels hitters have accumulated the most strikeouts in the bigs, adding to McClanahan’s ceiling on Wednesday. McClanahan is deserving of the distinction, ranking as the best pitcher available on both platforms tonight.
Hitter
Kyle Schwarber ($6,000 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Philadelphia Phillies have the pleasure of taking the field against T.J. Zeuch and the Cincinnati Reds, leading to some gaudy projections for several players. Amongst those is Kyle Schwarber, who is our top hitter on tonight’s docket.
Schwarber has been mangling the ball all season, but somehow his already impressive actual metrics still don’t live up to his analytics. The Phillies’ outfielder sits in the 100th percentile in barrel percentage, getting barrel to ball 21.4% of the time. Similarly, his expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate put him in the top 3% of hitters; however, Schwarber is still coming up short relative to his expected .538 slugging percentage. It’s a scary thought, but we could actually see more impressive metrics from him to end the season.
Zeuch will offer little to no resistance tonight. The tall righty has allowed four home runs in 8.0 innings pitched, for an absurd 4.5 home runs per nine innings. Worse, he’s allowed 17 hits and 12 earned runs over the same span, giving hitters a batting practice look at balls.
Not surprisingly, that gives Schwarber an unneeded advantage tonight against the Reds. That’s reflected in our projections, which rate Schwarber as the pre-eminent batter available on the mains slates.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT X using median projections belongs to the Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Gallo isn’t the only Dodger who gets to take advantage of an ideal matchup tonight, as the top five hitters rate as the best stacking option against the Brewers.
Mookie Betts has been one of the best leadoff men in the game, and that’s been amplified over his recent sample. Betts has a .923 on-base plus slugging percentage over the past week, coming around to score seven times. He’s the table setter for the rest of the Dodgers lineup and is an integral part of their stack tonight.
He’s followed by Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith through the power spots, all of whom have delivered exceptional at-bats throughout the season. Turner leads the team with 85 runs batted in, with Freeman a close second with 78. Both players benefit from batting behind Betts in the lineup and should produce against Houser tonight.
Arguably, Smith has been the best hitter over the last little while, driving in eight runs with one long ball and one double over the last seven days.
That home run count falls short of Max Muncy‘s, rounding out the Dodgers’ stack. Muncy is finding his power swing, swatting five dingers and eight extra-base hits over his last 13 games.
The Dodgers are a powerhouse tonight and lead THE BAT X projections with the best-rated stack.
