The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Value Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Ben Gamel ($2,600): Outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates
Several Pirates rate highly as value plays on tonight’s slate, but we like Ben Gamel‘s ceiling the best. Gamel has three hits and four runs batted in over his last couple of games and will be on the positive side of his splits vs. Josh Winckowski.
Analytically, Gamel is having a career year. The Pirates’ outfielder has a career-best hard-hit rate of 41.5% and his second-best barrel percentage. Still, Gamel is short of his expected slugging percentage and should continue his recent improved play, as evidenced by his .462 slugging percentage in August.
Winckowski has labored through 11 big-league starts. The 24-year-old ranks in the league’s bottom half in hard-hit and barrel percentages, resulting in a .431 expected slugging percentage and a suboptimal 4.64 expected earned run average.
Gamel projects well, ranking among the top options in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary. His hot play gives him an advantage over Winckowski, which isn’t reflected in his salary. Gamel is our favorite bargain play on DraftKings slates.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Brandon Lowe ($2,800): Second Baseman, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays host the Royals on Monday night, affording Brandon Lowe a chance to get his season back on track. Injuries have impacted Lowe’s effectiveness throughout the season, but a few indicators suggest he’s due for a breakout performance.
Lowe has bottomed out with his metrics, recording just one hit over his past six games, but he has maintained his strong analytics. The Rays’ second baseman performs better than most in virtually every advanced category, including expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, sweet spot contact, and launch angle.
Although his efforts have been inconsistent lately, Lowe continues to put a charge in the ball. Six of his last 13 hits have been extra-base hits, including two home runs.
Tropicana Field has been a safe haven for Lowe, as he’s put together a .505 slugging percentage at home compared to just .336 as a visitor. Lowe’s salary has fallen lately, and now is the time to buy low on the Rays’ slugger.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Yu Darvish ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
Some noteworthy pitchers are available on tonight’s slate, all of whom rate very highly in THE BAT X projections. However, we like Yu Darvish‘s circumstances the best, and we’re highlighting him as the preeminent pitcher.
Darvish is in a bounce-back spot against the same Nationals team he faced last time out. The five-time All-Star has been exceptional at home, twirling a 2.17 earned run average, allowing just 0.81 walks and hits per inning pitched, and sustaining his solid strikeout metrics.
Across the season, Darvish is striking out 9.0 batters per nine innings, although that metric has climbed over recent performances. The 36-year-old has improved struck nine or more per game in six of his past nine starts, equalling 11.6 punchouts per nine innings.
Darvish wields his splitter unmercifully, inducing a 38.5% whiff rate. That’s terrible news for the Nats, who have been sat down 56 times over their last six games. The Padres’ ace ranks among the best in median and ceiling projections and is our preferred pitcher on Thursday night.
Hitter
Rafael Devers ($5,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
With the number of talented players in the American League, it’s easy to look past Rafael Devers, but don’t look past him on tonight’s docket. The Silver Slugger sits near the top of our algorithm and is a worthy inclusion on any roster.
Three of Devers’ last four hits have gone for at least a double, with one leaving the park altogether. He’ll have more chances to send balls into orbit against JT Brubaker, who has struggled to contain hitters this season. Brubaker ranks in the 37th percentile or worse in expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, leading to a 4.39 expected earned run average. Things will get worse against Devers, who has been one of the best batters in the league this year.
The two-time All-Star ranks among the top 1% of hitters in average exit velocity, and Devers also ranks in the 97th percentile in expected slugging percentage. Further, he’s delivering 52.1% hard-hit and 12.6% barrel rates, putting him in the 95th and 86th percentiles, respectively.
Brubaker’s ineffective pitching is incompatible with Devers’ sensational metrics, giving the Red Sox third baseman a substantive edge in tonight’s matchup. That’s reflected in our metrics, which rank him as of the premier hitting options on both platforms.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT X using median projections belongs to the Padres. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
Darvish isn’t the only Padre with an elite fantasy ceiling tonight, as the San Diego stack dominates our lineup builder.
Since they acquired Juan Soto, there’s no refuge for opposing pitchers atop the Padres lineup. Soto is back to his old ways, with a .947 on-base plus slugging percentage over the last couple of weeks. He’s also insulated Manny Machado in the order, forcing pitchers to throw to the six-time All-Star. That’s not working out for opponents, as Machado has crushed the ball to the tune of a .648 slugging percentage since August 3. Soto and Machado are projected to bat second and third.
Their production metrics have increased thanks partly to Jurickson Profar, who is doing his part to get on base. Profar is second on the team among qualified hitters, posting a .742 on-base plus slugging percentage. Forty of his 105 hits are extra-base knocks, leading to 67 runs scored and 47 batted in.
Brandon Drury and Jake Cronenworth round out the top-rated Padres combination, batting fourth and sixth. Low-key, Cronenworth has been one of San Diego’s best bats, sitting second to Machado in runs, RBIs, and hits. Drury has also excelled with the team. In 14 games, he’s driven in 14 and come around to score eight times.
According to the Derek Carty projections, there’s no better option than the Padres tonight, and the above-noted lineup projects as the best available.
