The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Connor Joe ($3,100): First Baseman/Outfielder, Colorado Rockies
After losing the season opener, the Colorado Rockies have won three-straight games as they play the Texas Rangers again tonight. Connor Joe is off to a quick start as he is 5-for-16 with two home runs, three RBI, and one steal. He has scored in every game this season, with the lowest output being seven DraftKings points. Joe has been very consistent thus far and provides value at this salary on DraftKings.
The Rockies get a matchup against veteran left-hander Martin Perez who is back with the Rangers after stints with the Twins and Red Sox over the last three seasons. Perez has yet to have a season with a 20% or higher strikeout percentage. He is known for nibbling the corners and keeping hitters off balance. Perez allowed a 42% hard-hit rate last season and struggled against right-handed batters like Joe.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Brad Miller ($2,700): Third Baseman/Outfielder, Texas Rangers
After switching clubhouses five times over the last three seasons, Brad Miller may have finally found the right fit with the Texas Rangers. Miller is off to an incredible start as he went 4-for-11 from the plate with two home runs and five RBI in their three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays. The sample size is small, with only 13 plate appearances, but Miller is tied for third in ISO and has a very impressive .550 wOBA.
Miller is projected to bat leadoff against right-hander Chad Kuhl, who has one of the worst projections for a pitcher tonight. The Rangers are implied to score a slate-high 5.6 runs, making Miller one of the best values on the slate. Kuhl is making his Rockies debut as their fifth starter. He had a 4.20 ERA or higher in each season with the Pirates, as he has allowed 1.54 HR/9 and a 5.02 xFIP to left-handed batters in his career.
Miller is also a strong play on DraftKings, where he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus. He is expected to come with high ownership on both sites tonight.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Yu Darvish ($10,100 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) at San Francisco Giants
The highest ceiling pitcher on the slate is right-hander Yu Darvish. Andrew Heaney isn’t far behind in our projections, but his pitch count along with weather concerns, is worrisome. Darvish threw six hitless innings in his first outing against the Giants. He only had three strikeouts but was able to throw 92 pitches which are tied for the third-most in a game. That high of a pitch count provides a high ceiling in this matchup.
Darvish is coming off of his worst season in his career as he posted a career-high 4.22 ERA in 30 starts. He had a career-low 13.6% strikeout percentage while allowing a career-high 40% Hard-Hit rate. Darvish is a slight underdog in a road matchup against the Giants, who are still only implied to score 3.9 runs. With question marks at pitcher tonight, expect Darvish to carry the most ownership on the slate.
The Giants come in with the seventh-highest strikeout percentage and rank 20th in wOBA as an offense. They only have 10 RBI making Darvish a safe pay-up option tonight.
Hitter
Mike Trout ($5,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Miami Marlins
After sitting out last game with an illness, Mike Trout is feeling better per reports and is expected back in the lineup against the Miami Marlins and left-hander Jesus Luzardo. Often referred to as the best hitter in baseball, Trout has only played a combined 89 games in the last two seasons. His play hasn’t diminished as he has had above a .600 slugging percentage in five-straight seasons. The upside remains incredibly high.
After looking at Luzardo’s stats against right-handed batters, no wonder why Trout is “feeling better.” Last season, Luzardo allowed a 2.26 HR/9, a .522 xFIP, and a 45.2% fly-ball percentage to right-handed batters. Luzardo has above a 6.4 ERA in the last two seasons. Trout also benefits batting behind Shohei Ohtani, who is a major weapon. Make sure Trout is in the lineup, but what a great matchup to return to.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected ceiling in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are off to a slow 1-2 start as they look to rebound and capture another World Series Championship like they did just two years ago.
Weather is the main concern in this game. Stay up to date in our lineups page to make sure this game is a go before deploying this Dodgers stack.
If the weather continues to look like an issue, just head back into our stacking tool and find the next-best stack.
Adding Freddie Freeman this offseason almost feels unfair. Free-money Freddie is as consistent as they come. He has a .300 or higher batting average in five of his last six seasons.
Max Muncy is another hard-hitting, left-handed batter who gets the platoon advantage tonight. Muncy’s stats actually diminish against right-handed pitchers as his pull percentage increases to 47.4% compared to 35.2% against left-handers. That can get him in trouble, but he still has upside in this spot.
The veteran Justin Turner continues to thrive with the Dodgers. His career stats across the board have been much better against right-handers. He still has pop even at 37 years old.
Trea Turner was a fantastic addition last season as he batted .338 with 10 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 52 games with the Dodgers. He can capture fantasy points in a plethora of ways.
Mookie Betts has seen a dip in production with the Dodgers compared to his Red Sox days, but the upside is still there. Betts has the highest ceiling in this stack, according to THE BAT.
The Twins signed long-time Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Chris Archer in the offseason, hoping to bolster their starting rotation. Archer finished last season with a career-high in xERA and xFIP. He isn’t the same pitcher as he used to be. Archer also posted a career-high in Hard-Hit rate and a career-low in his fastball velocity.
The weather is cold and rainy in the Twin Cities tonight, but this Dodgers stack has a ton of upside if the game plays.
