The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house an abundance of data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Target
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. The percentage you see for the Bargain Rating indicates the percentile rank of a player based on how much of a bargain he is in a specific slate when considering historical pricing data across sites.
Bargain Rating has a strong correlation with player value, which you can easily see with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary projects them to score, this is good company for Bargain Rating to be in.
DraftKings Bargain
Eddie Rosario ($4,200): Outfield, Atlanta Braves
After being acquired at the trade deadline, outfielder Eddie Rosario spent only 33 games with the Atlanta Braves last season. Still, the Puerto Rican made a big impression with the team re-signing Rosario to a two-year deal part way through Spring Training.
It was a minimal sample, but Rosario scored a career-best .537 slugging percentage in 106 plate appearances with the Braves. He put up seven home runs in his first 78 games of the season with the Cleveland Guardians, matching that in 33 games with Atlanta.
Rosario thrived in the supporting role with the Braves and will be insulated next to some of the top bats in the National League. The 30-year-old could have been just scratching the surface last year and could set the bar even higher in 2022, batting ahead of Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, and eventually Ronald Acuna Jr.
The Braves outfielder rates as a bargain option on DK and should easily surpass his implied value batting at the top of the World Series-winning lineup.
FanDuel Bargain
J.D. Davis ($2,100): Third Base/Outfield, New York Mets
The New York Mets project as one of the favorites in the NL East and are legitimate World Series contenders entering the season. J.D. Davis was in and out of the lineup with injuries last season, managing to put up solid production metrics when healthy. We like Davis to build off his strong season in 2022, starting with an Opening Day matchup against the Washington Nationals.
In 73 games, Davis finished with the second-best on-base plus slugging percentage of his career last season. His hard-hit rate dropped slightly in 2021, but Davis still finished with a 42.5% rating. He’s in an ideal spot to improve that on Thursday, batting against left-hander Patrick Corbin. Historically, Davis has been better against southpaws, posting a .452 slugging percentage and a 4.3% home run rate.
Corbin was not good last year, finishing the year with a 5.82 earned run average, 1.47 walks and hits per inning pitched, and an expected slugging percentage of .494, ranking in the bottom 6% of the league. The Mets could start 2022 with a bang, and Davis should be a significant contributor.
Ceiling Projection Standouts
Pitcher
Shane Bieber ($8,300 DraftKings, $10,400 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber is rated as a top option against the Kansas City Royals on Opening Day. The former Cy Young winner was limited to 96.2 innings in 2021, but his strikeout metrics make him a pitcher worth including in your DFS lineups on either platform.
Bieber has some of the best put-away stuff in the bigs, making him a top fantasy option every time he toes the rubber. Last season, the 27-year-old struck out 12.5 batters per nine innings, with a 33.1% strikeout percentage, ranking in the top 6% of MLB pitchers. The Guardians ace has a five-pitch mix that keeps hitters off-balance, inducing a whiff percentage that puts him in the 97th percentile.
Strikeouts are the best indicator of a pitcher’s ceiling, and Bieber is one of the best in the business. Bieber’s fantasy ceiling is among the best on Thursday’s slate.
Hitter
Juan Soto ($5,00 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets
The Nats were initially tasked with getting to Max Scherzer on Opening Day; however, the three-time Cy Young winner is unavailable, and the Mets are sending Tylor Megill to the mound instead. That elevates Juan Soto‘s fantasy upside as the Nats’ slugger gets a more ideal pitching matchup.
It’s hard to believe, but at 23-years-old Soto is already entering his fifth season in the MLB. The two-time Silver Slugger is coming off a second-place finish in MVP balloting last year, posting robust analytics. Soto had a .545 expected slugging percentage last season, ranking as an elite hitter but still finishing below his career average of .553. That suggests that Soto is a progression candidate this season and could see his metrics climb even higher.
Soto doesn’t miss, and he has an ideal matchup against Megill to pick up where he left off last season. Megill gave up a hard-hit percentage of 42.0% while getting barrelled 10.0% of the time, which won’t fool Soto. Washington’s franchise cornerstone could send a few balls into orbit.
Top Stack from THE BAT
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is you can purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone, or create your own aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by Projected Plus/Minus in our stacking tool, is the San Diego Padres. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Padres kick off the season against the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks, getting to tee off on southpaw Madison Bumgarner who finished last season with an expected slugging percentage putting him in the 30th percentile.
It may seem counterintuitive to include left-handed bat Trent Grisham in the stack until you consider his splits versus lefties. Grisham finished last season with a .825 on-base plus slugging percentage against southpaws compared to .712 against righties. Twenty-four of his 62 runs batted in came against lefties, despite Grimsham making over 250 fewer plate appearances versus same-handed pitchers. The 25-year-old projects as a top-of-the-order bat, maximizing his fantasy value.
Grisham will be surrounded by Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Luke Voit in the batting order. Machado led the Friars in runs batted in last season and had the second-best slugging percentage. The former Silver Slugger will be a regular at the top of the Padres’ order and worth inclusion on most San Diego Stacks.
Cronenworth enters his second full season with the Padres and should build off his impressive 2021 campaign. The former seventh-round pick is a contact hitter with above-average power and will have plenty of productive at-bats slotted between some of the best hitters in the game.
The same is true for Voit, who joined the Padres this off-season but will typically be used in the four-slot to drive in runs. If Voit can recapture the magic from his 2020 season in San Diego, there will be no stopping the Padres this season.
Mix in Wil Myers, who slugged .449 against southpaws last year and will bat mid-order, leaves DFS players with the ideal stack for Opening Day 2022.
