The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3,200): Outfielder, Toronto Blue Jays
Gurriel Jr. is coming off his best performance of the season yesterday against Houston, including his first home run in 2022. He is hitting .283 on the year with a .321 xwOBA.
His stats won’t blow your socks off, but Gurriel Jr. is near the top of the slate in Projected Plus/Minus with a reasonable salary against Boston right-hander Nathan Eovaldi.
Toronto has one of the highest implied run totals, and Gurriel Jr. could be a low-ownership bargain for lineups.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Jeremy Pena ($2,900): Shortstop, Houston Astros
Pena has shown some pop in his bat in his rookie campaign with four 20-plus FanDuel point performances. The 24-year-old Houston shortstop has posted a strong .376 wOBA with three home runs and a 17.1 barrel %.
His salary has steadily risen from $2,000 to $2,900 since Opening Day, but his potential still makes him a value play against Dane Dunning. The Texas right-hander has struggled with a 5.68 ERA and .411 wOBA through his first three starts.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Jose Berrios ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox
Value pitchers with high upside are often the key to a successful daily fantasy lineup. Berrios has the makings of that magic combination today against Boston. He is well down the salary order for pitchers on the slate but is projected in the top-five in terms of ceiling.
Berrios rebounded against this same Red Sox team last week after two difficult outings to open the season, where he gave up seven earned runs in just 5.1 total innings. He posted a 20-plus point DraftKings total against Boston, allowing just one run over six innings.
This could be a great buy-low opportunity. His DraftKings salary has plummeted from $8,900 at the start of the season, even with a solid performance in his last outing. If he can return to his career 23.8 K%, Berrios could have a high-scoring night.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($4,900 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Betts finally exploded for a big game on Friday with two home runs and 39.0 DraftKings points, by far his highest total of the season.
Struggling to put the ball in play this year, Betts’ 25.8 K% is his highest rate since 2015, and his .301 wOBA is well below his career average. The turnaround could just be starting for Betts, who has posted three positive Plus/Minus performances in his last four games.
Despite a tough matchup today with Arizona’s Merrill Kelly, who has given up just one earned run in 15.1 innings this season, the boom potential is there for Betts.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool comes from the Los Angeles Dodgers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
An everyday stack favorite for THE BAT, the Dodgers again have three of the top five highest ceilings on the slate in Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts.
Turner comes into today’s game with five single-digit DraftKings point results in a row. He consistently eats up right-handed pitching, a plus for today’s matchup. Turner hit .329 last season against right-handed pitching with the Dodgers.
On the other hand, Freeman continues to put up consistent production at the plate in his first season in Los Angeles. He is in the top-10% of hitters with a .423 xwOBA and 112.3 max EV, according to Baseball Savant.
Betts may be the best value play of the stack as he has dropped to his lowest salary of the season and seems to be turning things around at the plate.
Justin Turner and Max Muncy round out the stack as dart throws, though they are on the higher salary end for their production thus far in 2022. Turner excels against right-handed pitching with a .353 wOBA, and Muncy has one of the highest BB% in the league to give his floor some padding.
The Dodgers will face right-hander Merrill Kelly for Arizona. The 34-year-old spent nearly a decade in the minor leagues and the Korean Baseball Organization before making his major league debut in 2019. He has a career 24-27 record and 4.13 ERA. He is off to the best start in his career, but his track record suggests the Dodgers have some upside.
