The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Nicky Lopez ($2,200): Second Base, Chicago White Sox
Nicky Lopez comes in extremely cheap on tonight’s slate. He leads all batters in Projected Plus/Minus while being tied for third in Bargain Rating. He hasn’t been lighting it up, but he’s gotten on base in six straight games.
Lopez’s cheap salary will allow you to squeeze in more expensive bats and arms, and his matchup tonight is advantageous. Lefties have given Aaron Civale trouble over the past month, as he’s allowed a .261 xISO and .390 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. He’s not the sexiest click, but Lopez opens up roster construction tonight.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Chris Sale ($9,800) vs. Boston Red Sox
Chris Sale laps the field in ceiling projection on this slate, and he’s been pitching lights out lately. He’s topped 24 DraftKings points in each of his last three starts and hasn’t struck out fewer than six batters in any of his six starts on the year.
This Red Sox lineup struggles against lefties, and Sale has no pitch count to worry about. Sale also holds a 30.5% strikeout rate to righties on the year compared to 22.2% against lefties, and the Red Sox are expected to start seven righties tonight.
Expect Sale to mow down this Sox lineup tonight. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate with the highest ceiling projection, but he also ranks second in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary. He’s a smash all around.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,200) vs. Boston Red Sox
Sticking with this Braves/Red Sox game, Ronald Acuna Jr. looks like the top batter on the slate tonight. He has a ceiling projection four points higher than the next closest batter, and he gets a plus matchup against Nick Pivetta.
Pivetta has been a great pitcher the last few seasons, but it’s his first start off the IL, and he allowed a .239 xISO to righties this year before getting hurt. He also threw his sweeper almost 55% of the time to right-handed hitters, and Acuna owns a .617 xISO and .608 xwOBA against sweepers this year, with .422/.451 marks last year.
Pivetta could be rusty or have a short least, all of which is great news for Acuna. He’s my top batter tonight.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Chris Paddack ($6,500) vs. Seattle Mariners
Chris Paddack’s strikeout rate leaves a little to be desired, but that’s made up for against a Mariners team that strikes out at will. He’s a volatile pitcher; we’ve seen him flash a massive ceiling and an incredibly low floor. Three of his last four starts have been -10.4, 36.2, and 27.7 DraftKings points.
The low floor doesn’t concern me. It’s a long ceiling, and I’m playing to win tournaments. At such a cheap price, I’ll take the ceiling potential and plug him in. I often look to save money with at least one of my pitchers to allow me to play bats in great matchups. Paddack has a higher strikeout rate against righties and will see at least five tonight.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Aaron Judge ($5,900) vs. Houston Astros
I’m always a sucker for Yankees bats, but it’s hard not to get excited in this matchup. Spencer Arrighetti struggles with control and gives up a ton of fly balls. The Yankees lineup is full of power, and the low control plus the fly-ball tendencies of Arrighetti tells me there will be runners on base for some homers.
Arrighetti has been worse against righties than lefties, and he throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time. This leads me right to my good friend, Aaron Judge. Judge sports a .239 xISO and .360 xwOBA against righties on the year, with .291/.424 marks against fastballs. Judge ranks third in ceiling projection on the slate and is one of my favorite spends.
Michael Conforto ($4,900 DraftKings) vs. Washington Nationals
The Rockies have just one lefty in the bullpen tonight, which makes me less worried about the Giants’ lefties’ pinch hit risk. Peter Lambert has been getting ravaged by lefties over the past month, allowing a .320 xISO and .379 xwOBA.
Michael Conforto has great numbers against righties on the year, with a .234 xISO and .353 xwOBA. Lambert also throws his changeup and fastball over 80% of the time, and Conforto shells both pitches. He has .225/.346 marks against righty fastballs and .242/.337 marks against righty changeups on the year. Lamonte Wade Jr. is another bat I’m interested in, and plugging both into your lineup is a great path tonight.
