MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for May 7

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Tyler Black ($2,900): First Baseman, Milwaukee Brewers

After bursting onto the scene with a two-hit performance in his MLB debut at the end of April, Tyler Black has cooled off over his subsequent outings. Nevertheless, we like the Milwaukee Brewers infield to put together an elite performance on Tuesday night against the Kansas City Royals.

A first-round pick from 2021, Black has spent the past few seasons honing in craft in the Brewers’ minor league system and flashing his power at every level. Before being called up to the big club, the Canadian was dazzling with a career-best .525 slugging percentage in 117 plate appearances. Naturally, that correlated with solid run production, with Black accumulating 20 runs and 18 RBI over that stretch.

Although he’s been mired in a tepid stretch, we like Black to break out against Seth Lugo. Lugo is operating well outside expected levels, putting together a 1.60 ERA compared to his expected benchmark of 4.16. Moreover, he ranks in the bottom 30% of pitchers in barrel rate and whiff percentage.

Black has some growing to do as a major league player still, but he’ll get his fair share of hittable pitches against Lugo at Kauffman Stadium. We’re betting he reaches his fantasy ceiling, making him one of the best value players on the board.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,100) vs. Miami Marlins

It’s safe to say that Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s foray into the MLB level has been a resounding success. The Los Angeles Dodgers ace has sensational in seven starts, punching out 42 across 34.0 innings pitched to go along with a 3-1 record and 2.91 ERA. He’s primed to continue that onslaught with another dominant performance against the Miami Marlins.

Of course, Yamamoto’s dominance is also reflected in his underlying metrics. He mixes his five-pitch repertoire flawlessly, inducing a 30.0% chase rate and 29.2% whiff rate. Predictably, Yamamoto’s four-seamer has been the least effective pitch at getting batters to swing-and-miss, but he’s above 33.0% with his other four offerings. That makes it nearly impossible for opposing hitters to look for anything other than a fastball without striking out.

Yamamoto has the added advantage of throwing versus a lackluster Miami Marlins side. The Fish sit second to last in the majors in OPS, accumulating a dusty .624 rating in 37 outings this season. We’ve also seen an uptick in Marlins’ strikeouts over their recent sample, walking back to the dugout 40 times over their past six games.

Miami doesn’t possess the offensive firepower to knock Yamamoto off his stride. The 25-year-old is riding a 12-inning scoreless streak into tonight’s inter-divisional battle, and it’s entirely possible that he extends that into his next start. We’re expecting Yamamoto to reach his ceiling and end the night as one of the top-performing pitchers.

Hitter

Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,200) vs. Boston Red Sox

It’s been a while since we drank from the Ronald Acuna Jr. fountain, but it’s time to quench our thirst on Tuesday’s main slate. The reigning NL MVP has recaptured that top-end form early in May, and we expect him to build off his recent performances versus the Boston Red Sox.

Including Sunday’s hitless effort, Acuna Jr. has been proliferating. His .647 slugging and .444 on-base percentages this month have dragged his season-long OPS rating up 54 points over a matter of days. Over that modest stretch, Acuna Jr. has seven hits, two extra-base hits, four runs, two RBI, and a stolen base. Altogether, the Atlanta Braves slugger is averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game from his usual spot atop the lineup.

More importantly, Acuna Jr. remains a progression candidate over the coming games. He’s 30 points shy of his expected slugging percentage and well below normal ranges across the analytics board. We should see more robust performances from Acuna Jr. as he gets back into his MVP zone, bringing his stats and analytics back where we expect them to be.

We’ve seen a slight dip in Acuna Jr’s salary over the past few games. Based on his current form and anticipated progression, it’s unlikely to drop any lower. That means that now is the time to buy low on Acuna Jr. as he’s certainly on his way to recapturing his MVP form.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Bailey Ober ($7,600) vs. Seattle Mariners

After an ineffective start to the season, Bailey Ober and the Minnesota Twins are quietly asserting themselves as a force in the AL Central. We’re expecting Ober and company to continue that upward trajectory with a strong showing against the Seattle Mariners at home.

Ober was torched for eight runs in 1.1 innings pitched in his first start of the season, but has settled into his groove since then. Over his last five starts, the 28-year-old has allowed eight runs over 30.1 innings pitched for a much improved 2.37 ERA. As expected, he’s been much more effective at limiting baserunners, holding opponents to just 0.76 walks and hits per inning pitched.

We also can’t look past the fact that the Mariners have been the worst-hitting team in the MLB over the last couple of weeks. Mariners hitters have combined for a disappointing .645 OPS with a laughable 139 strikeouts in 13 games.

Target Field has been a safe haven for Ober this season. He’s put together a 1.61 ERA while striking out 13 over 11.0 innings pitched. His salary doesn’t do him justice tonight, and that’s reflected in our projections. Ober is our median and ceiling leader and should have no problem testing the upper boundary of what he can contribute.

Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

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MLB DFS Hitters

Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,000) vs. Chicago Cubs

Luis Arraez has seemingly made all the difference for the San Diego Padres. His arrival spurred a whole new level of production from the rest of the lineup, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has been one of the most prominent beneficiaries.

Lining up next to Arraez has afforded Tatis Jr. some new opportunities. The Padres shortstop turned outfielder has hits in five of his last six games, totaling eight hits, eight runs, and four RBI. Just as impressively, Tatis Jr. has eclipsed 10 fantasy points in four of those six outings while averaging 12.5 fantasy points throughout.

Granted, tonight’s showdown against Shota Imanaga is a daunting matchup. Still, Tatis Jr. reserves his best performances for left-handed pitchers. His OPS jumps nearly 80 points versus southpaws, representing a notable advantage in rostering him tonight. We’re taking a firm stance on including Tatis Jr. in any format or tournament.

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Thairo Estrada ($4,200) vs. Colorado Rockies

Our final pick comes from the fertile fantasy grounds of Coors Field, where we’re looking to capitalize on a visiting player. Thairo Estrada has been swinging a hot bat lately, and we expect him to maintain that production into Tuesday’s affair versus the Colorado Rockies.

The San Francisco Giants’ second baseman is leading the team over his recent sample. Estrada has hits in five of his last six, accumulating eight hits, two doubles, and a home run over that stretch. Those improved efforts correlate with run production, as Estrada has come around to score in three straight games while driving in six from the meaty part of the Giants’ order.

We’re going to have to start calling Dakota Hudson the chef with the way he’s serving them up for opposing hitters. Although most Giants hitters will benefit from Hudson’s generous approach, we like Estrada’s ceiling the best. Given his recent form, we’re expecting Estrada to reach- if not exceed- his ceiling on the main slate.