The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Darell Hernáiz ($2,100): Third Baseman/Shortstop, Oakland Athletics
The tumultuous Oakland Athletics added 22-year-old Darell Hernáiz to their opening day roster as a platoon player. The rookie has steadily earned more playing time aside from a week-long AAA stint in mid-April and now sits atop the bargain ratings on today’s short main slate.
He is batting .194/.261/.194 on the season with subpar power numbers. He has yet to hit a home run and has added just four RBI through 70 plate appearances. With that said, the youngster had his first three-hit game on Saturday and may be trending upward.
The Athletics have a plus matchup against Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney. Heaney is 0-4 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in six starts. Darell Hernáiz is an interesting low-ownership lottery ticket near the minimum salary threshold.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Luis Castillo ($9,600) at Minnesota Twins
Luis Castillo began the season with three straight starts allowing four earned runs in 5.2 innings or less. Since then, he has dropped his ERA from 6.89 down to 3.46 while allowing a total of four earned runs over his last four starts.
The veteran Mariners righty is allowing a .241 xBA and .287 xwOBA with a respectable 28.7 K%. He has a +1.39 average Plus/Minus on the season, despite the tough start.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Twins lineup has a .167 ISO and .320 wOBA against righties this season. They have kept the strikeouts in check with a 22.9 K%, but they have a relatively low park rating tonight and a low run projection.
Hitter
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,200) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
What can Bobby Witt Jr. not do on a baseball field? The third-year pro ranks in the top-3% of all major league players in hard hit %, base running run value, and fielding run value, according to Baseball Savant.
For fantasy players, Witt Jr. has been on a roll with 11 double-digit DraftKings point games in his last 13. He is batting .319/.375/.551 on the season with four home runs and 19 RBI. He is top 2 in the American League with 31 runs scored, 10 doubles, five triples, and 11 stolen bases.
It is easy to see why Witt Jr. is at the top of the salary chart, but his fantasy scoring versatility still warrants paying the price tag. The Royals take on right-hander Bryse Wilson for Milwaukee, who sits at 2-1 with an even 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in three starts and nine appearances.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Cole Ragans ($8,800) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
A part-time starter in 2023, Cole Ragans is back in the rotation full time and holding his own. He is 2-2 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.36 through seven starts for the Royals. He maintains a strong 28.9 K%, well above league average and providing higher fantasy upside.
Ragans has been hit-or-miss for fantasy owners this season. In his two negative Plus/Minus starts, he has allowed a total of 19 hits and 10 earned runs in 6.2 total innings. In his five positive Plus/Minus starts, he allowed 18 total hits and four earned runs.
Even with a couple dud games, Ragans has not allowed a home run since March. He looks to keep that streak alive against a Brewers lineup with a 48.6 hard hit % and 25.6 % fly-ball rate against lefties this season.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitter
Maikel Garcia ($4,700) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
With a short slate, fantasy owners looking for stack options may flock to the Royals with them having one of the highest implied run totals.
Maikel Garcia is a solid secondary piece to Bobby Witt Jr. and is high up in the model rankings. The third baseman is batting .232/.280/.377 with four home runs and 20 RBI. He’s added fantasy value on the base paths with eight stolen bases and six doubles. Garcia has a +0.55 average Plus/Minus on the season.
Garcia has a 50.5 hard hit % against right-handed pitching this season. He faces right-hander Bryse Wilson of the Brewers, who has allowed a .236 wOBA and .093 ISO against right-handed hitters.
Julio Rodriguez ($5,000) at Minnesota Twins
The Mariners superstar outfielder still lands near the top of today’s short main slate ratings despite a lackluster start to the 2024 campaign. After hitting 32 home runs and 103 RBI a season ago, Julio Rodriguez has just one long bomb and 11 RBI on the stat sheet thus far.
Overall, Rodriguez is batting .261/.308/.313 with seven stolen bases. He has just five extra base hits in 143 plate appearances. Obviously the lack of production at the plate has led to a lack of production for fantasy owners. Rodriguez has a -2.43 average Plus/Minus on the season and a -3.11 average Plus/Minus in his last 10 games.
At least his price has come down. Rodriguez started the year at $6,000 and has dropped a full $1,000 in just over a month. That price is a bargain if he can regain his 2023 form. Maybe that starts tonight in Minnesota against Simeon Woods Richardson. Richardson is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts.
