The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jacob Hurtubise ($2,500): Outfielder, Cincinnati Reds
Rookie outfielder Jacob Hurtubise was called up to the Reds on May 13 and has appeared in 12 games this season. In 32 plate appearances, Hurtubise is batting .280/.367/.320 with a double as his only extra base hit.
The ceiling may be capped for Hurtubise without strong power numbers. He hit just nine home runs over the course of four minor league seasons. With that said, the model has him high on both the overall rating and bargain rating today against St. Louis. He has two double-digit DraftKings results in his last four games and a solid 60% sweet spot rate.
The Reds face 37-year-old Lance Lynn and the Cardinals today. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 10 starts.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Joe Ryan ($10,300) vs. Kansas City Royals
Joe Ryan outpaces all pitchers on the main slate today in both salary and ceiling potential. The Twins right-hander is 3-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through 10 starts this season.
Ryan wins with his off-speed pitches and excellent control. He has one of the lowest walk rates (3.8%) in the league and allows a .218 xBA. He has a +0.83 average Plus/Minus on the season despite his salary creeping up $1,000 since the start of the season.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Royals lineup has a .152 ISO and .308 wOBA against right-handed pitching. They have a 21.3 K% and 46.7% hard hit rate. The model expects Ryan to use his 27.0 K% and 23.4% whiff rate to put up fantasy numbers today.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($6,400) at Colorado Rockies
The Guardians’ third baseman leads the ceiling projections on the early main slate with the Colorado boost and his recent hot streak. Jose Ramirez has a +3.33 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games with six home runs in that span.
On the season, Ramirez is batting .263/.316/.531 with 15 home runs and 52 RBI. He adds fantasy production on the base paths with eight stolen bases and 32 runs while continuing to post one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league (11.4%).
The Guardians have high offensive expectations with a day game at Coors Field against Austin Gomber. Gomber has gotten better throughout the season and only allowed two earned runs through four May starts. Overall, he is 1-2 with a 2.76 ERA with a 3.14 ERA at home.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Chris Bassitt ($8,200) at Chicago White Sox
Veteran Blue Jays hurler Chris Bassitt has recorded a win or loss in all 10 starts this season to the tune of a 4-6 mark. He has an elevated 4.39 ERA and 1.46 WHIP this season, but the model expects a strong performance today in a good matchup with the White Sox.
Bassitt does not have the highest ceiling given his 20.5 K%, but he has been better in May, with a 2.88 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last four starts.
The model relies on a plus matchup for Bassitt against a struggling White Sox lineup. The projected Chicago lineup has a .124 ISO and .307 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a relatively low run projection, but do have an elevated home run projection today.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitter
Tyler Freeman ($4,100) at Colorado Rockies
The Guardians have one of the highest implied run totals on the early main slate today in Colorado, and 25-year-old Tyler Freeman is a value option in stacks to take advantage of Cleveland’s expected offensive output.
Freeman is getting on track for his first full season in the majors. He has a .217/.317/.350 batting line with four home runs and 20 RBI through 47 games. His .252 xBA and 37.5 hard hit rate are just above league average.
On May 18, Freeman exploded for 33.0 DraftKings points in a 4-4 effort with a double and three RBI. He will try to replicate that type of performance today against Austin Gomber and the Rockies.
Masyn Winn ($3,200) at Cincinnati Reds
A sneaky value play today, Masyn Winn has been hot in May, with a +1.30 average Plus/Minus in the last month. The Cardinals shortstop is on a 16-game hit streak, but his power totals limit ceiling potential, with just two home runs on the season.
Overall, Winn is batting .301/.356/.438 on the season with a .344 wOBA and 41.9% sweet spot rate.
The Cardinals face lefty Nick Lodolo of the Reds today. Lodolo is 3-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He has a strong 30.7 K%, but Winn is a contact hitter who should still have plenty of opportunities to succeed at his price tag.
