MLB

MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for May 24

By Ben Strunk @
May 23, 2024

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Seth Brown ($2,500): Outfielder, Oakland Athletics

Fantasy players looking for dollar bin bargains may have a winner in Seth Brown today with his recent production. His season-long numbers are nothing to sneeze at, but Brown has scored at least 16 DraftKings points in four of his last six games.

Overall, Brown is batting .206/.254/.357 with five home runs and 13 RBI on the season. He strikes out far too much with a 32.8 K% and has a .270 wOBA on the season. He has a current six-game hit streak with three long bombs in that span.

Brown will try to stay hot today against veteran Justin Verlander of the Astros. The 41-year-old is 2-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Corbin Burnes ($10,600) at Chicago White Sox

The Orioles righty has impressed thus far in 2024 with a 4-2 record and 2.41 ERA. Corbin Burnes has maintained a 25.6 K% and .262 wOBA through 10 starts while allowing as many runs (5) in the first inning as the second through fifth innings combined.

Burnes has a +0.61 average Plus/Minus on the season and notched 11 strikeouts in his last start on May 19. Expect high ownership for him against a lackluster White Sox lineup today.

Using PlateIQ, the projected White Sox lineup has a strikingly low .109 ISO and .282 wOBA against right-handed pitching. They have one of the lowest projected run totals despite a positive park rating. Burnes is a strong lineup option today with high upside.

Hitter

Shohei Ohtani ($6,600) at Cincinnati Reds

Shohei Ohtani continues to land at the top of ceiling projections as some of his superstar counterparts have struggled in the early season. He deserves every inclusion in this spot and in fantasy lineups, with the incredible April and May he’s put together.

With an amazing .348/.418/.641 hitting line, Ohtani has amassed 13 home runs, 34 RBI, and 17 doubles on the season. He’s even added 13 swiped bags on the base paths to his stat line. He has an insane 60.8 hard hit % and .452 wOBA.

Ohtani has a +2.14 average Plus/Minus on the season and two 24-point DraftKings results in his last three games. He will face Graham Ashcraft, who has a 3-3 record and 4.25 ERA through nine starts. Ashcraft has allowed three earned runs in each of his last three starts.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Justin Verlander ($8,600) at Oakland Athletics

At some point, age will catch up to the 41-year-old Justin Verlander, but he’s still proving to be an effective starting pitcher for the Astros thus far in 2024. He currently sits at 2-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.

The strikeouts have come down for Verlander in his 19th season to 18.7%. His hard hit rate has also come down from 41.3% in 2023 to 29.6% in 2024. He showed he still has high ceiling potential with 32.75 DraftKings points on May 12.

The Athletics face a low park rating from both sides of the plate against Verlander tonight. They have a .181 ISO and .322 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have four hitters in today’s lineup with strikeout rates above 30%.

Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitter

J.T. Realmuto ($5,400) at Colorado Rockies

J.T. Realmuto stands out among catchers on the main slate with the Phillies’ sky high implied run total in Colorado. In his 11th season, Realmuto is off to one of his best starts, with a .285/.331/.461 hitting line and seven home runs in 41 games.

The Philadelphia catcher is by far the highest rated at his position today and comes in with a +2.08 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He is having a great month with an elevated .349/.397/.524 batting line in May.

Expect lots of action on Philadelphia hitters in lineups against 33-year-old Ty Blach and his 1.43 WHIP. Blach has a critically low 11.4 K% and allows a .327 xBA.

Jarren Duran ($4,600) vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Red Sox center fielder has only hit the ball over the fence three times in 2024, but that hasn’t stopped him from making many laps around the base paths. At a value price tag, Jarren Duran sits in the top-10 in the the American League in total bases, doubles, and triples.

Overall, Duran is swatting .270/.339/.461 with 21 RBI and 31 runs scored. He continues to score fantasy points in a variety of ways, with a +1.13 average Plus/Minus on the season and a +4.04 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games in his recent tear.

Duran and the Red Sox enter a matchup tonight against Bryse Wilson. The Brewers’ right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.