MLB

MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for May 22

By Ben Strunk @
May 21, 2024

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Jordan Beck ($2,300): Outfielder, Colorado Rockies

The 23-year-old Jordan Beck made his major league debut for the Rockies on April 30. The rookie outfielder is batting .212/.212/.348 through 66 big league at bats with two home runs and two stolen bases.

Beck had his best performance yet on May 15 with 30 DraftKings points. He notched three hits including both a home run and double with five RBI. He followed that up with another home run on May 17 for a 14 points DraftKings total.

At $2,300, Beck is an interesting dart throw at the back end of lineups against fellow rookie Mitch Spence. The Oakland righty is 3-2 with a 3.90 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 12 appearances. He makes his second start of the season tonight.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Tyler Glasnow ($10,600) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Tyler Glasnow leads the National League with 81 strikeouts and sits fourth with 62 innings pitched in 2024. The Dodgers workhorse boasts a 6-2 record with 2.90 ERA and minuscule 0.90 WHIP.

On pace for the best season in his nine-year career, Glasnow is allowing a .258 xwOBA with a 33.8 K%. He does come off one of his worst starts of the season, allowing four earned runs and six hits in five innings on May 16. He still managed eight punch outs in the game to save his fantasy day and has reached that threshold in each of his last six starts.

Using PlateIQ, the projected Diamondbacks lineup has a .142 ISO and .310 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a low run and fantasy point projection tonight, but their home run potential is slightly elevated, as Glasnow has allowed six long bombs on the season.

Hitter

Bryce Harper ($5,800) vs. Texas Rangers

It’s difficult to find hitters near the top of the ceiling projections that have performed well over the last couple weeks. Superstars like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Mookie Betts each have negative Plus/Minus ratings over the last 10 games. Bryce Harper fits the bill of a high ceiling and a +3.18 average Plus/Minus over that span.

Harper is batting .280/.388/.537 on the season with 11 home runs and 36 RBI. He has shredded in May with a .359/.455/.656 batting line with five home runs and 18 RBI. He has three double-digit DraftKings results in a row with six hits and four RBI in the last three games.

The Phillies take on Dane Dunning tonight. He has a 3-2 record and 4.10 ERA. Dunning has allowed a 48.9 hard hit % and .501 xSLG this season.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Chris Bassitt ($7,200) vs. Chicago White Sox

The model likes the veteran Chris Bassitt tonight despite a rough start to his 2024 campaign. Bassitt currently sits at 3-6 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. He has a 21.2 K% and 40.8 hard hit rate on the season.

At $7,200, Bassitt is a value play tonight against a struggling White Sox lineup. Chicago has a .107 ISO and .273 wOBA against right-handed pitching in their projected lineup.

Bassitt should work late into the game with his 96 pitch count average to accumulate strikeouts and fantasy points. The White Sox have four batters who strike out at better than a 30% rate.

Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

MLB DFS Hitter

Davis Schneider ($4,300) vs. Chicago White Sox

A newcomer to the top of the projections, Blue Jays outfielder Davis Schneider is the top-rated hitter on the main slate. He is a value play with high offensive expectations for Toronto tonight. They have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate against rookie hurler Nick Nastrini.

Schneider is batting .246/.343/.458 on the season with five home runs and 17 RBI. He has struggled lately with just one hit in his last 17 at-bats.

In his first two big league starts, Nastrini is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. He has allowed seven earned runs in eight total innings. Expect high ownership rates on the Blue Jays today, but Schneider may be a sneaky start with his recent cold snap scaring away fantasy owners.

Luis Arraez ($4,200) at Cincinnati Reds

Luis Arraez showed his new team his lofty potential with four hits in his Padres debut on May 4. He has continued to impress with two hits in each of his last six games.

Overall, Arraez is batting .318/.363/.383 on the season and leads the league with 201 at bats. The fantasy ceiling is capped with his lack of power and base running speed, but his track record for hitting the ball to holes in the defense is undeniable.

The Padres face Reds right-hander Nick Martinez with his 1-2 record and 4.23 ERA. He allows a low 27.6% hard hit rate and 3.0 BB%, but Arraez does not use either of those tactics to produce anyway.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.