The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Otto Lopez ($2,500): Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Miami Marlins
Recent moves in Miami have made room for Otto Lopez to see regular at-bats for the big league club. He had 10 total at-bats with Toronto in 2021 and 2022 and has earned 50 at-bats so far in 2024 with the Marlins.
Lopez has taken advantage of the opportunity with a .300/.345/.540 hitting line this season. His ceiling is relatively low, with three home runs and nine RBI, but he does hold a respectable .569 xSLG and strong .396 wOBA. In the last 10 games, Lopez has a +3.31 average Plus/Minus with three double-digit DraftKings results.
The Marlins face right-hander Joe Ross tonight in Miami. The Brewers veteran has a 2-4 record with 4.61 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this season. Lopez is an interesting bargain proposition in lineups.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($8,800) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Framber Valdez has the sixth-highest salary on today’s main slate, but the model gives him the highest projected ceiling against the Angels. At 3-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, the Astros lefty has a high variance in fantasy outcomes this season.
A 59.4 hard hit rate makes him susceptible to big innings, but he has manages to keep many of those balls on the ground with an impressive 68.3 ground ball %. Valdez is one of the softest throwers in the league, but still posts a 25.1% whiff rate.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Angels lineup has a .175 ISO and .365 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have a low 19.2 K%, but Valdez is a throw-to-contact pitcher who excels without gaudy strikeout numbers.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Even without his pitching prowess this season, Shohei Ohtani remains one of the best fantasy performers in the league. The model pegs him as the highest ceiling on today’s slate after his first walk-off hit in Dodger blue yesterday against the Reds.
Ohtani is batting a ridiculous .353/.423/.658 this season with 13 home runs and 33 RBI through 47 games. He even adds value on the base paths with 11 stolen bases on the season. His 1.081 OPS, .486 xwOBA, and .363 xBA are all above last year’s marks that earned him the American League MVP award.
The ceiling is sky high for Ohtani today against Diamondbacks lefty Joe Mantiply. A well-traveled bullpen arm, Mantiply makes just the fourth start of his seven-year big league career. He has a 2-1 record with a 4.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 21 relief appearances this season.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($9,500) at Washington Nationals
The model loves Pablo Lopez as a strong starter on the road in Washington. He has the second-highest projection and ceiling on the main slate, but expect him to be highly owned in lineups.
The Twins’ righty is 4-3 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP through nine starts this season. He sits in the top 10 in the American League, with 58 strikeouts, but he has allowed seven home runs already on the year.
Lopez has the best xERA of his career (2.88) and an above-average 28.7 K%. The Nationals’ projected lineup has a low run projection tonight with a 24.3 K%. The model expects Lopez to improve on his +0.38 average Plus/Minus rating tonight.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitter
Kyle Tucker ($6,100) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Fantasy players have a handful of high implied run totals on today’s main slate to choose from. The Astros are one of those offensive targets, and Kyle Tucker is their hottest lineup option.
Tucker is off to the best start of his career, with an insane .287/.417/.623 batting line. He leads the National League with 15 home runs, 104 total bases, and a 1.040 OPS.
He has been a fantasy juggernaut with a +4.57 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and a +2.24 average on the season. He showed his ceiling potential yesterday with 32 DraftKings points on the back of two home runs and four RBI.
The Astros have a juicy matchup against Reid Detmers and the Angels. Detmers is 3-4 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this season. He has allowed seven home runs and 31 runs scored through 50.1 innings pitched.
Maikel Garcia ($4,300) vs. Detroit Tigers
Maikel Garcia has been one of the hottest hitters in the league, with four straight double-digit DraftKings performances. He has a +3.23 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and comes into tonight with a seven-game hitting streak.
Overall, Garcia is batting .249/.294/.402 with five home runs and 30 RBI on the season. He’s added 11 stolen bases and 12 doubles to his tallies with a .323 xwOBA.
The ceiling may not be as high as the likes of Mookie Betts and Bobby Witt Jr., but Garcia is a great value option on the slate against Reese Olson. The Tigers’ right-hander has been unlucky with zero wins on the season despite a strong 2.09 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
