The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Ryan McKenna ($2,000): Outfielder, Baltimore Orioles
As we are seeing, most players can step into the Baltimore Orioles lineup and succeed. The O’s have a dangerous lineup of skilled players from top to bottom, insulating the lesser-skilled players throughout. Although not everyone has excelled, we are expecting to see the best Ryan McKenna has to offer on the early slate.
McKenna has seen just a handful of pitches in the MLB this season, but he’s part of the Triple-A crew that’s doing damage on a nightly basis. The 27-year-old recorded 11 hits in 12 games, including three doubles and two homers, resulting in an above-average .444 slugging percentage.
Now we get to see McKenna apply that craft at the MLB level. The O’s outfielder recorded a hit in his lone at-bat earlier in the week, and he has some noteworthy underlying metrics that should help him translate his minor league success to the bigs. Throughout his career, McKenna has 8.0% barrel and 36.3% sweet spot rates, putting him in the upper echelon of MLB hitters.
McKenna should get his chance to make an impact at the bottom of the order in today’s series finale versus the New York Yankees. And he’ll certainly get some pitches to look at as Carolos Rodon pitches around the rest of the O’s lineup. Consequently, we’re expecting McKenna to be one of the top values on today’s early slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Edward Cabrera ($9,700) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Miami Marlins are looking to complete the three-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies in Thursday’s matinee. Thankfully for Marlins fans, Manager Skip Schumaker is sending the right arm to the mound to make that happen.
You wouldn’t know it from his 1-1 record or 5.28 ERA, but Edward Cabrera is throwing smoke from the mound. The hard-throwing righty was roughed up in his last start but has maintained his elite form from last season.
Cabrera is a master at inducing soft contact, sitting in the 87th percentile with a 30.0% rate. Further, he confuses batters with his five-pitch mix. Cabrera has accumulated a 34.1% chase rate and 29.6% whiff rate, ranking in the 90th and 74th percentile, respectively. This has led to a 31.3% strikeout rate, the best it has been throughout his career.
We’re expecting Cabrera to continue his upward trajectory against one of the worst-hitting teams in the league. The Rockies have the sixth-most strikeouts in the MLB while also sitting with the 11th-worst OPS. Watch Cabrera’s traditional stats improve over the coming games as he continues to dominate from the bump.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,000) vs. Baltimore Orioles
It’s probably not the start to the season that Aaron Judge envisioned. As of April 26, the former AL MVP had a .356 slugging percentage and .317 OBP, representing nearly half of his OPS from his MVP-winning season. However, we’ve seen renewed effort from Judge, and he should maintain that form into today’s series finale versus the Orioles.
Judge has turned a corner with his recent efforts. Since bottoming out at the end of April, the Yankees outfielder has six hits over his last five games, including two home runs, five RBI, and three runs scored. His OPS has jumped nearly 60 points over that modest stretch and should continue to increase thanks to his stunning analytics profile.
You don’t see it in his traditional stats, but Judge remains an elite hitter. He sits in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 95th percentile in hard hit rate, and 89th percentile in barrel percentage. Moreover, those numbers have started to climb over his recent sample and should continue to work even higher as Judge works his way back into normal range in expected slugging percentage.
The Yankees slugger leads our median and ceiling projections, but his anticipated dominance is also reflected in his PlateIQ profile. We’re anticipating a monster performance from Judge as he lives up to those lofty standards.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Nathan Eovaldi ($9,100) vs. Washington Nationals
Earlier this season, the Texas Rangers proved that championship hangovers are a real thing. Still, the defending World Series champs have turned the corner with their recent efforts, winning three of their past five. Nathan Eovaldi continues to be their most reliable arm this season and should have no problem getting past an underwhelming Washington Nationals side.
Eovaldi has tormented opposing hitters all season. The veteran righty has pitched into the sixth inning in every outing this season, earning three quality starts in six contests. Although walks have been an issue over his last two starts, Eovaldi has been effective at inducing outs while also improving his strikeout metrics relative to past seasons.
So far in 2024, the two-time All-Star has 33 strikeouts in 30.0 innings pitched for a 9.9 K/9 rate. Moreover, his supporting metrics suggest that this is a sustainable position. Eovaldi ranks in the 77th percentile in chase rate and 83rd percentile in whiff percentage, implying that his 24.3% strikeout rate should continue to climb.
That’s an ideal profile for DFS punters to hang onto, particularly against a weak Nats team. Washington sits in the bottom half of the league in OPS and have just eight hits through the first two games of the series. Eovaldi can expose those weaknesses en route to one of the best pitching performances of the day.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Marcus Semien ($5,300) vs. Washington Nationals
It’s not just Nathan Eovaldi who is expected to shine versus the Nationals. Marcus Semien has tormented Washington through the first two games of the series, and this should continue on Thursday afternoon.
Semien has three hits in this series so far, including a double and a triple, churning out two runs. In doing so, the Rangers’ second baseman has cemented himself among the top 15% of MLB batters in doubles, triples, and run production. But we’re expecting an even more robust performance against southpaw Mitchell Parker.
Predictably, the right-handed Semien does his best work versus lefties. So far this season, Semien has a .500 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers, representing four of his 13 extra-base hits in just 32 at-bats.
The cherry on top is that Semien’s stats are grounded in sustainable metrics. He rates on the elite end of the spectrum in expected slugging percentage, batting average, and weighted on-base average. All of those factors support another solid showing from Semien against the Nats.
Jazz Chisholm ($5,400) vs. Colorado Rockies
We’re approaching our final play from a similar angle, pointing to Jazz Chisholm Jr. as a potential boom candidate, albeit in a lefty-versus-righty matchup.
The left-handed batting Chisholm is hitless in his last seven at-bats, but historically does his best work against righties. His slugging percentage jumps 122 points against conventional arms, going from .355 to .477. Further, 47 of his 57 career homers and 138 of his 172 RBI have come off righties.
Recent downturn be damned, we’re looking at Chisholm Jr. as a potential x-factor on today’s early slate. Peter Lambert loves pitching to contact, and Chisholm Jr. should have no problem taking those offerings for a ride. From his usual spot in the heart of the order, the Marlins slugger is poised to break out in a big way on Thursday.
