The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Nick Senzel ($2,700): Third Baseman, Washington Nationals
Nick Senzel went hitless in his last outing but was scorching hot before that. He had four home runs in the four games prior, totaling 75 DraftKings points over the stretch. The sample size has gotten big enough for Senzel where he looks like a problem for left-handed pitchers. In 139 at-bats against lefties, he has a .300 ISO and .445 wOBA.
Andrew Heaney has question marks surrounding him, as righties have roughed him up over the past month to a .237 xISO and .334 xwOBA. His fastball has especially been an issue, as he throws it over 50% of the time to righties and has allowed a .247 xISO.
Senzel has lofty numbers against lefties this year, with a .626 xISO and .526 xwOBA, and he has a .519 xISO and .491 xwOBA against the fastball. The sample size is fairly small, but he had great numbers last year as well.
Senzel leads the slate in bargain rating.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Corbin Burnes ($9,400) vs. New York Yankees
Corbin Burnes checks in with the top ceiling projection on the slate today, but I have my worries. He’s only truly flashed his ceiling in one of six starts this year while posting another solid start against the Red Sox in early April.
He’s averaged 16.07 DraftKings points over his past three starts, failing to top 20 in any contest. Burnes is still a great real-life pitcher but likely not the dominant ace we saw in 2022. This Yankees lineup also isn’t packed with strikeouts, as they sit at just over 23% as a team.
Righties have also roughed up Burnes, as he’s allowed a .265 xISO and .365 xwOBA to right-handed hitters over the past 30 days. Sadly, this Yankees lineup has six righties, including Anthony Volpe, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres.
I understand the ceiling projection on Burnes, but I’m likely to look elsewhere.
Hitter
Kyle Tucker ($5,900) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Triston McKenzie’s velocity has dipped, and his control is slipping. I rarely need to be convinced to play Kyle Tucker, and his leading the slate in ceiling projection is just the cherry on top.
McKenzie has gotten ravaged by lefties over the past 30 days, allowing a .232 xISO and .380 xwOBA. His fastball is the main culprit, as he’s thrown it just under 60% of the time, and he is allowing a .328 xISO and .427 xwOBA on the pitch.
Tucker has a .404 xwOBA against righties on the year and has crushed righty fastballs to a .401 xISO ad .484 xwOBA. Tucker is also riding high coming into this matchup, with 51 DraftKings points over his last three games.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Shota Imanaga ($9,800) vs. New York Mets
Shota Imanaga may not boast the highest ceiling, as his pitch count seems capped at about 90. However, he’s posted solid outings this year, limiting damage while flashing upside with 34.3 and 26.7 DraftKings points.
We’ve already poked holes in Burnes, so Imanaga not being able to match Burnes’ hypothetical ceiling isn’t much of a concern for me.
Imanaga doesn’t allow much power, allowing just a .114 xISO to lefties and .164 xISO to righties over the past 30 days. The ballpark factor and his elite control should help him cruise to a solid outing.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Yordan Alvarez ($5,600) vs. Cleveland Guardians
All of my gushing over Kyle Tucker also applies to Yordan Alvarez. McKenzie has allowed a .232 xISO and .380 xwOBA over the past 30 days, and his fastball has gotten killed.
Alvarez has a .406 xISO and .471 xwOBA against righties this year and .293/.479 marks against righty fastballs. He had equally impressive numbers last year, with .387/.467 marks against righties as a whole and .439/.508 numbers against righty fastballs.
Alvarez is tied for third in ceiling projection.
Tyler O’Neill ($5,500 DraftKings) vs. San Francisco Giants
The Giants are starting Daulton Jefferies tonight, who hasn’t been great in a small sample size this year, allowing a .242 xISO to righties. We saw him for a fairly large sample size in 2022, where righties still gave him a ton of trouble with a .201 xISO and .336 xwOBA.
Enter Tyler O’Neill, who has pulverized righties this year with a .357 xISO and .429 xwOBA. Jefferies also throws the sinker about 50% of the time to righties, and O’Neill sports a .353 xISO and .536 xwOBA against sinkers this year.
O’Neill ranks inside the top ten in ceiling projection, and it doesn’t look like he’s garnering much ownership.
