The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Michael Siani ($2,100): Outfielder, St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals outfielder is seeing semi-regular plate appearances for the first time this season at the big league level. In May, Michael Siani has earned more opportunities with a .367/.367/.400 batting line this month.
The ceiling remains low for Siani with zero home runs and just two extra-base hits in 98 career big league at-bats, but expectations do not need to be sky high at his price tag. Siani has a +0.75 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games and has at least one hit in nine of his last 11 games.
St. Louis takes on Boston right-hander Bryan Bello tonight with his 4-1 record and 3.13 ERA. The model likes Siani as an interesting low-ownership dart throw.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Cole Ragans ($9,200) vs. Oakland Athletics
Pitchers facing the Oakland Athletics often have elevated fantasy ceilings, and tonight is no different, as Cole Ragans tops the ceiling projections on the main slate. Ragans has gone through an up-and-down season with a 2-3 record and 4.22 ERA.
Ragans has allowed seven runs in two different starts this season, including his last start against the Angels on May 11. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his other seven starts. With a strong 27.3 K%, Ragans has the potential to score for fantasy owners on his good days.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Athletics lineup has a .194 ISO and .304 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. The model likes the low home run and hit projections today to boost Ragans’ fantasy potential.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,000) vs. Chicago White Sox
With most of the high-ceiling players on the slate in recent slumps, Aaron Judge sticks out as a ceiling pick with his recent hot streak. He has a massive +6.14 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
On the season, Judge is batting .262/.393/.555 with 11 home runs and 29 RBI. He ranks second in the American League with 91 total bases and third with a .948 OPS. He has taken off in May with a .396/.517/.896 batting line and five home runs. Judge has nine hits, five doubles, and two home runs in his last four games.
The Yankees open a home series against the White Sox, facing right-hander Mike Clevinger. Clevinger is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in two starts this season.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Chris Bassitt ($7,200) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The 35-year-old veteran has seen a resurgence late in his career with the Blue Jays. Chris Bassitt has double-digit wins over each of the last three seasons and reached the 200 innings mark for the first time in 2023.
This season, Bassitt has struggled a bit to a 3-5 record with a 5.06 ERA and 1.55 ERA. He is coming off a strong 23.24 DraftKings point performance on May 8 with six strikeouts in 6.1 innings. Bassitt is just behind Cole Ragans with the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
Bassitt faces a Tampa Bay Rays team with a .126 ISO and .304 wOBA against right-handers this season. The model expects Bassitt to return to form with a solid start.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitter
Marcus Semien ($5,600) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Marcus Semien is high in the projections today, with the Rangers having one of the highest implied run totals on the main slate. Semien is batting .276/.320/.464 with eight home runs and 31 RBI on the season.
Although Semien only has one stolen base in 2024, he is a stat stuffer at the plate and on the base paths. He sits second in the American League with 33 runs scored and third with 53 hits. He sees the ball well at the plate with a low 13.6 K% and has the highest xBA (.302) of his career this season.
The Rangers face veteran lefty Tyler Anderson for Los Angeles. He is 3-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.27 WHIP and has allowed at least three runs in each of his last three starts. Expect Semien to be a target for fantasy stacks tonight.
Tyler Freeman ($3,500) vs. Minnesota Twins
It takes a little scrolling to find batters with positive Plus/Minus ratings near the top of the main slate projections. Tyler Freeman is an interesting value play with a consistent +1.15 average Plus/Minus in his last 10 games and +1.10 average Plus/Minus on the season.
The overall batting numbers (.195/.306/.341) for Freeman are not impressive, but he has four double-digit DraftKings point totals over his last nine games. That’s two more than Ronald Acuna Jr. in the same span.
Freeman has four home runs and 13 RBI on the season. He may not lead the league in those areas, but he does have a league-leading eight hit-by-pitches this year.
Simeon Woods Richardson takes the bump for the Twins tonight against Cleveland. Woods Richardson has a 1-0 record with 3.24 ERA through five starts this season.
