MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for May 16

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Jonathan Aranda ($2,800): First Baseman, Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have dealt with a rash of injuries early this season, but they appear to be getting healthy all at the same time. The latest player to return to the lineup is infielder Jonathan Aranda. The 25-year-old is hitless through his first two games back but is projected to do some damage in Thursday’s series finale versus the Boston Red Sox.

Naturally, Aranda’s metrics put him well above his hitless benchmark; however, there’s a more compelling case to be made for his inclusion on Thursday’s main slate. Specifically, the left-handed batting Aranda has done all of his best work versus righties with ineffective breaking pitches, which is Cooper Criswell to a tee.

Boston’s probable starter throws his sweeper 26.8% of the time, resulting in a disastrous .533 expected slugging percentage. Further, Criswell has been mostly ineffective with the rest of his repertoire, ranking in the 33rd percentile in barrel rate and 19th percentile in whiff rate.

Pitching to contact is rarely a successful endeavor at Fenway Park. With Aranda on the verge of a breakout and Criswell aiming for bats, we’re expecting a top-end performance from the Rays’ infielder on Thursday.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Tyler Glasnow ($10,400) vs. Cincinnati Reds

Tyler Glasnow is making a pretty convincing case for the Cy Young early in 2024. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ ace has been sensational, going 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through the first nine starts with his new team. He’s positioned to sustain that success in Thursday’s inter-divisional battle against the Cincinnati Reds.

Glasnow’s done his best work outside of Dodgers Stadium. In four road starts, the hard-throwing righty is a cool 2-0, allowing just four earned runs in 25.0 innings pitched for a 1.44 ERA. More impressively, he’s thwarted any and all offensive attacks, giving up just eight hits and nine walks for a tidy 0.68 WHIP.

Still, the most appealing part of Glasnow’s fantasy game is his strikeout stuff. He’s sitting down batters at a 33.6% rate, ranking in the 95th percentile among all MLB pitchers. Again, Glasnow’s strikeout splits are even more pronounced on the road, posting a 13.0 K/9 rate as the visitor compared to 10.4 at home.

The Reds have no plate discipline, benefiting Glasnow’s candidacy as the top-rated pitched on tonight’s slate. Their 400 strikeouts are the sixth-most in the MLB, while their 28.6% strikeout rate is fifth-worst.

Glasnow is far and away the most highly-rated pitcher on tonight’s slate. We expect him to live up to the hype against an ineffective Reds squad.

Hitter

Mookie Betts ($6,200) vs. Cincinnati Reds

On most nights, you could choose almost anyone from the top half of the Dodgers’ batting order and enjoy fantasy success. And tonight is no exception. LA kicks off a weekend set against the Reds, with several hitters featuring prominently in our projections. We’ve whittled it down to Mookie Betts as the preferred option, as he maintains his MVP pace early.

Betts has been one of the premier hitters in 2024. The six-time Silver Slugger is toting around a superb 1.007 OPS and sitting near the top of the leaderboard in every statistical category. Already this season, he’s totaled 62 hits, including 21 extra-base knocks with 37 runs scored and 28 RBI. As expected, that success is validated by his sterling analytics profile.

The Dodgers infielder has one of the most disciplined approaches at the plate. Betts ranks in the 94th percentile or better in whiff, chase, and strikeout rates, propping up other parts of his profile. Specifically, that’s contributing to a .326 expected batting average of .405 expected weighted on-base average, putting Betts in the 99th and 98th percentile, respectively.

Of course, that’s without even considering his power metrics, which are nearly just as impressive. Betts has a .503 expected slugging percentage, consistently using his speed for extra bases.

There’s no slowing down Betts in tonight’s battle against lefty Brent Suter and the Reds’ bullpen. Batting against a southpaw is not an advantage that the right-handed Betts needed, but DFS punters shouldn’t pass up the edge.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Cristian Javier ($7,800) vs. Oakland Athletics

There’s nothing like a date against the Oakland Athletics to snap out of a rut. After missing a few weeks with a neck injury, Cristian Javier returned to the Houston Astros lineup in a disastrous outing versus the Detroit Tigers. Now, the righty is set up for a bounce-back effort on Thursday night against the A’s.

Before the setback, Javier was off to a terrific start of the season. He hadn’t given up more than two earned runs in any of his four starts, pitching into the sixth inning in all but one of those contests. However, his dusty start against the Tigers sent all of his metrics into disarray. Thankfully, the 27-year-old can correct those benchmarks in Thursday’s series finale.

Although they went on a bit of a run up the standings, the Athletics remain a lackluster team. Their 427 strikeouts are the third-most in the majors, while their .677 OPS and 3.8 runs per game put them in the bottom half of the league. Worse, they’ve fallen off their unsustainable pace from a couple of weeks ago, watching their OPS dip to .597 over the last seven days, bringing their runs per game down to 2.7.

Unfortunately for whatever A’s fans remain, that downward trajectory should continue in tonight’s AL West showdown. Javier is positioned for renewed success, showing that his last start was the exception and not the rule.

Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

---

MLB DFS Hitters

Yordan Alvarez ($5,300) vs. Oakland Athletics

You wouldn’t know it from looking at his early-season stats, but Yordan Alvarez is just a season removed from finishing third in AL MVP voting. The Astros slugger had an injury-plagued 2023 campaign but has maintained his elite analytics profile throughout. As such, it’s just a matter of time before he breaks out, and he’s in the midst of adjusting his trajectory for the better.

Alvarez’s power hasn’t returned, but he’s been swinging a hot bat over his recent sample. Entering tonight’s contest against Oakland, the former Silver Slugger has ten hits over his last seven games, recording a hit in all but one of those contests. Still, there’s plenty of room to grow for Alvarez relative to his underlying metrics.

Three of those ten hits have gone for extra bases, but that still leaves Alvarez well short of his expected benchmarks. He sits in the 95th percentile with a .556 slugging percentage, which is substantially greater than his actual .437. Likewise, Alvarez is even further off his career average of .575, implying that aggressive growth is anticipated.

We’re seeing the green sprouts in Alvarez’s recent performances and it’s time for a full-on growth spurt. Watch Alvarez bloom into his MVP-esque self over his coming games, elevating his fantasy profile along the way.

---

Randy Arozarena ($4,400) vs. Boston Red Sox

We’re going back to the Rays well to quench our thirst for a value fantasy contributor. After a dreadful start in which he saw his slugging percentage dip to .231, Randy Arozarena has turned a corner since the start of the month. We’re expecting the Rays outfielder to continue walking that path back to fantasy relevancy with another strong showing in Boston.

In 58 plate appearances this month, Arozarena has elevated his production back to expected levels. His .870 OPS puts him much closer to career norms, but his season-long rating of .585 supports that he’s not done yet.

Seven of Arozarena’s nine hits this month have resulted in extra bases, including five home runs. As expected, that improved power swing correlates with run production, with Arozarena driving in nine and coming around to score eight more. The Rays continue to deploy their premier player in the heart of the order, setting Arozarena up for success in the long run.

The Rays are getting healthy and their offense is better because of it. Arozarena remains a catalyst and has benefited from the return of several key players to the team’s lineup. Criswell adds to that appeal, as Randy and the Rays maintain their current form.