The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Vaughn Grissom ($2,600): Second Baseman, Boston Red Sox
A hamstring injury kept Vaughn Grissom out of the Boston Red Sox lineup through the early part of the season, but the second baseman has had ample time to get up to game speed. Now, we’re expecting more meaningful production from Grissom, starting with tonight’s AL East clash versus the Tampa Bay Rays.
An off-season acquisition and part of the Chris Sale deal, Grissom has been ineffective early in his tenure in Beantown. Currently, he’s toting around deflated .182 slugging and .152 on-base percentages, operating well below expected. Thankfully, his metrics support that he’s a solid progression candidate over his coming sample.
Specifically, Grissom’s expected slugging percentage is nearly 200 points higher than actual. Further, he has an ideal 40.7% sweet spot rating, implying he’s making solid contact with the ball at an optimal launch angle. Those metrics support that it’s just a matter of time before Grissom breaks out.
The Red Sox will have plenty of opportunities to produce against Aaron Civale. The Rays’ probable starter ranks in the 30th percentile or worse in barrel rate and ground-ball percentage, leaving little doubt that they will send many balls into the night sky. Count on Grissom to get in on the action as one of the top value bats on the main slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Dylan Cease ($11,000) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies had their fun last night, but we’re not anticipating a repeat performance on Tuesday, particularly with Dylan Cease on the mound. The hard-throwing righty has been a revelation in a San Diego Padres uniform, and he should have no problem mowing down the Rockies’ lackluster lineup.
Cease rates as one of the top analytics arms in the bigs. His .186 expected batting average, 34.1% whiff rate, and 32.4% strikeout percentage put him in the 93rd percentile or better. Moreover, he has an elite 2.77 expected ERA, which is within range of his actual value of 2.19, implying that he’s on a sustainable path.
Tonight, the former Cy Young runner-up gets to pick on an underperforming Rockies squad. So far this season, Colorado has compiled the fifth-fewest runs, fourth-most strikeouts, and 12th-worst OPS, giving them no shot at getting to Cease in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park.
Cease leads our median and ceiling projections by a wide margin, but he also has a favorable PlateIQ profile validating that position. We’re leaning into those favorable ratings and recommending Cease as the must-roster pitcher on Tuesday’s main slate.
Hitter
Kyle Tucker ($6,100) vs. Oakland Athletics
It’s been a hell of a week for Kyle Tucker. The Houston Astros slugger has been one of the most dominant forces in the MLB recently. Tucker will face little resistance from JP Sears on Tuesday night, as he continues his onslaught over the major league.
Tucker has totaled seven hits over his previous seven outings, recording a base knock in all but one of those contests. But even that stat doesn’t do him justice. The two-time All-Star has sent five of those balls into orbit, adding a double for good measure for a jaw-dropping .958 slugging percentage across the seven-game sample. Still, Tucker is performing below his expected slugging percentage, suggesting that he has not yet reached his pinnacle.
DFS punters might have some apprehensions about rostering the left-handed batter against a southpaw. But let me alleviate those concerns. So far this season, Tucker has a 1.063 OPS versus lefties compared to a .953 mark versus righties. Five of his 13 homers and nine of his 21 extra-base hits have come in nearly half the at-bats off of southpaws.
JP Sears loves pitching to contact, and that will be his undoing against Tucker and the Astros. We’re betting the Astros outfielder ends the night as the top-performing fantasy player of any slate.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Joe Ross ($5,200) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
It might be tough to rationalize rostering the aforementioned Dylan Cease at his $11,000 salary; however, you can offset that slate-high salary with one of the lowest, adding Joe Ross to your stable of secret weapons on Tuesday.
A couple of six-run outings are tanking Ross’ early-season stats, but he’s been more effective lately. The former first-round pick has allowed three or fewer runs in three of his last four while making it into the sixth-inning in two of those contests. Included in that sample is a quality start against the Chicago Cubs two games ago.
More importantly, we’re expecting sustained success from the Milwaukee Brewers pitcher over his coming starts. His 4.75 ERA remains above expected 4.12, and Ross has been above-average in average exit velocity, chase, and whiff percentages.
Ross’ ceiling looks even more appealing when we factor in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ free-swinging lineup. They’ve accumulated the fifth-most strikeouts with the fourth-worst OPS in the bigs, setting Ross up to continue his recent ascent. This salary doesn’t do him justice. Ross is the top value arm on the board.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Kyle Manzardo ($2,200) vs. Texas Rangers
There’s another Kyle to add to your fantasy coffers, this one of the Manzardo variety. The Cleveland Guardians’ first baseman is slowly finding his footing in the major league but will benefit from an ideal pitching matchup on tonight’s main slate.
After failing to record a hit in his first two MLB games, Manzardo went on a modest spree totaling three hits including a double over his next four. Since then, he has only made one start, an 0-for-3 appearance on Monday night.
Nevertheless, the left-handed batting Manzardo gets to tee off combustible right-hander Jack Leiter at Globe Life Field. All of Manzardo’s production has come off righties, and Leiter can’t miss opponents’ bats. The Texas Rangers’ starting pitcher has given up a 15.2% barrel rate in limited action this season, contributing to one of the worst expected ERAs (7.61) in the majors.
Circumstances favor Manzardo in this matchup, and he’s poised for his best effort as a big league player. Don’t pass him up as a premier value option against the Rangers.
Yandy Diaz ($4,100) vs. Boston Red Sox
Lastly, consider the value Yandy Diaz brings to the stage in tonight’s showdown versus the Boston Red Sox. Diaz has been one of the top hitters in the MLB over the last week and can facilitate some of Nick Pivetta’s anticipated regression.
Since May 7, Diaz has an otherworldly 1.495 OPS. Across that sample, the Tampa Bay Rays’ first baseman has totaled ten hits, including three doubles and two home runs, while driving in three and coming around to score seven more. Still, his actual metrics remain below expected across the board, implying that we should expect more of the same over his coming games.
That position is reinforced when we consider Pivetta’s current profile. The Boston Red Sox pitcher ranks in the 23rd percentile with a 4.72 ERA, but he has been getting by with a current benchmark of 3.60. We’re anticipating struggles from Pivetta over his next few starts.
Last year, Diaz ended the campaign as one of the preeminent lead-off hitters, and he’s slowly getting back to that level. Include him on all of your rosters to maximize fantasy production on Tuesday’s main slate.
