The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Eddie Rosario ($2,600): Outfielder, Washington Nationals
Eddie Rosario is on one of the better hot streaks in his 10-year major league career. Over the last seven games, he has four home runs, seven RBI, and four stolen bases. He has double-digit DraftKings points in every game during the span with a massive +8.28 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
Overall, Rosario is batting .174/.252/.370 on the season with five home runs and 10 RBI. He had just three hits in 57 at-bats for a .053 batting average in April. So far in May, he is swatting .417 with a 1.491 OPS.
The Nationals face White Sox righty Chris Flexen tonight. Flexen is 2-3 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.21 ERA in eight appearances. At the price, fantasy owners should be excited to stay in the flames with Rosario in their lineups.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500) at San Francisco Giants
The ceiling better be high for Yoshinobu Yamamoto since he has by far the highest salary on the main slate. Thus far, the new Dodgers star has earned that pricing with a +1.02 average Plus/Minus through eight starts.
Yamamoto is 4-1 overall with a 2.79 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. After a rough major league debut in Seoul on March 21, he has rebounded with four scoreless starts in his last seven. He had a 2.45 ERA in April and is working on a 1.29 ERA so far through two May starts.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Giants lineup looks ripe for the picking with a .074 ISO and .227 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have an incredibly low run projection with low park ratings from both sides of the plate.
Hitter
Kyle Tucker ($6,100) vs. Oakland Athletics
The Astros outfielder is off to another great start at the plate for Houston. He is batting .271/.397/.590 and sits second in the American League with a .987 OPS.
Kyle Tucker produces fantasy points in a variety of ways. He has shown increased power this season, with 13 home runs and 28 RBI through 39 games. He has also tacked on 30 free passes, 28 runs, and six stolen bases to the stat line.
Tucker has five home runs in his last six games and sees a plus matchup against Ross Stripling today. The Athletics’ veteran right-hander is 1-6 with a. 5.14 ERA on the season. He has allowed the most hits and second-most runs in the American League this season.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
George Kirby ($9,000) vs. Kansas City Royals
Mariners right-hander George Kirby lands high on the projections tonight against Kansas City. He has managed a 3-3 record with a 4.15 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this season through eight starts.
Kirby holds an impressive 2.8 walk rate to minimize unforced errors and allows a .292 xwOBA and 25.6 K%, both better than league average. Before allowing four runs in his last start, Kirby allowed just three total runs during four outings from April 15 through May 3.
The model likes Kirby against a Royals squad with a low park rating in Kansas City tonight. Their projected lineup does have a low 17.8 K% against right-handed pitching this season, which could limit Kirby’s upside.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,400) vs. Colorado Rockies
The matchup may not be in Colorado, but Vegas still likes the Padres to put up runs tonight with one of the highest implied run totals on the slate. Fernando Tatis Jr. is in rhythm to make good on that projection, with a +1.08 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
Tatis Jr. is batting .257/.335/.449 on the season with eight home runs and 22 RBI through 43 games. His advanced stats indicate he has hit better than his stat line, with a .303 xBA, .536 xSLG, and .393 xwOBA.
The Padres take on Rockies righty Dakota Hudson, who is still looking for his first win on the season. He is 0-6 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.79 WHIP through seven starts. He is better away from home, with a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in three starts.
Corbin Carroll ($5,000) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The American League Rookie of the Year has yet to find his 2023 form thus far through 39 games. He has struggled to a .201/.287/.266 batting line with just two home runs and 14 RBI.
Corbin Carroll has managed a .258 wOBA in 2024 after posting a sky-high .370 wOBA last season. His sweet spot rate has fallen from 32.7% to 26.6%, and his barrel rate has dropped from 5.3% to 3.4%. He is still making contact at the plate with a low 17.8 K%, but the quality of contact has been disappointing.
At his current salary, Carroll is into bargain territory if he can regain some of his rookie-year magic. The model likes that thinking tonight against Graham Ashcraft and the Reds. Ashcraft is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in seven starts.
