The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Paul DeJong ($2,500): Shortstop, Chicago White Sox
After a six-year run in St. Louis, Paul DeJong moved between three different teams in 2023. He landed in Chicago this offseason and is on pace for his best statistical production since 2020.
DeJong is batting .240/.283/.460 with five home runs and 11 RBI in 100 at bats. Advanced numbers show he may still have a higher ceiling with a low .198 xBA and career-high strikeout rate at 37.3%. He has four double-digit DraftKings point totals in his last five games with a +3.40 average Plus/Minus in his last 10.
The White Sox face long time Guardians righty Carlos Carrasco. The 37-year-old returns to Cleveland this season and is currently 2-2 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. DeJong is a solid bargain option with decent upside for the price.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Logan Webb ($8,500) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Logan Webb provides a unique upside proposition on the main slate with the highest-projected ceiling and the seventh-highest salary. The model loves him to produce tonight at home against the Reds.
On the season, Webb is 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He needs to improve on his .306 xBA allowed along with his career-low 18.3 K%. He comes in with two negative Plus/Minus starts in a row but has only allowed two long balls on the season.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Reds lineup has a .139 ISO and .280 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have three players with higher than a 34.0 K% in their lineup and a low projected run total in a pitcher’s park with low park ratings on both sides of the plate.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($5,900) at Chicago White Sox
High-ceiling players are often sporadic and Jose Ramirez has lived up to that billing this season. Since April 25, Ramirez has notched both a 25 and 33-point DraftKings game total. He has six games under 3.0 points in that same 14-game span.
Overall, Ramirez is batting .238/.282/.450 with eight home runs. He is third in the American League with 31 RBI and eighth with 25 runs scored. A consistent contact hitter, Ramirez has continued to keep a low strikeout rate while producing a .385 xSLG and .292 xwOBA.
The Guardians take on 24-year-old Garrett Crochet and the White Sox tonight. Crochet may be 2-4 with a 5.31 ERA, but his deeper numbers are strong at a 1.01 WHIP and .185 xBA allowed. His kryptonite has been the long ball this season, with seven home runs allowed through seven starts.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Charlie Morton ($7,900) at New York Mets
At 40 years old, Charlie Morton continues to impress with his consistency and longevity on the mound. The Braves righty is 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through six starts in 2024.
The ceiling may not be incredibly high for Morton with a 22.9 K%, but neither is his $7,900 DraftKings salary. He has produced three straight positive Plus/Minus outcomes and worked at least six innings in each of those starts.
The Mets lineup has a low strikeout rate at 19.6%, but the model does not expect those batted balls to do a ton of damage tonight. They have a low projected run total with a low park rating. Morton is a great value option for fantasy players on the slate.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitter
Nathaniel Lowe ($4,500) at Colorado Rockies
As always, the matchup in Colorado will be a fantasy target for lineup stacks. This game boasts by far the highest implied run total. Nathaniel Lowe may be the best value play on the Rangers’ side at $4,500 compared to the loftier price tags on some of his teammates.
Lowe joined the Rangers on April 20 this season and is batting .328/.438/.448 through 18 games. A better line drive hitter than long ball behemoth, Lowe has left the yard only once. His fantasy ceiling may be capped with a .347 xSLG and incredibly low 1.9% barrel rate, but Lowe has still managed a +1.44 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
The Rockies will start lefty Austin Gomber tonight at Coors Field. Through seven starts, he is 0-2 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. In four home starts, Gomber has a 3.68 ERA and four home runs. Vegas expects a run bonanza in Colorado tonight.
Jarren Duran ($4,700) vs. Washington Nationals
Jarren Duran has showed a new level of versatility this season for the Red Sox. On pace for his first full big league season, Duran leads the American League with six triples and sits fourth in the league with nine stolen bases through his first 37 games.
The overall batting numbers (.266/.337/.416) are not eye-popping, but Duran still manages to put points on the board for fantasy owners. He has a +1.99 average Plus/Minus over the last month with four extra-base hits in his last three games.
The Nationals start left-hander Patrick Corbin tonight with an 0-3 record and 6.45 ERA. He has allowed a sky high 1.81 WHIP with a .327 xBA and has a minuscule 14.4 K%. Corbin is on his way to a fourth straight 10+ loss season and the Red Sox should have plenty of opportunities to score tonight.
