The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lenyn Sosa ($2,300): Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox third baseman was recalled from Triple-A on May 31. Lenyn Sosa appeared in 12 April games for Chicago and batted .132/.154/.184 in that stretch.
Since being recalled, Sosa has upped his production with a .400/.500/.600 batting line in five June games. He notched his first home run of the season on June 4 and has three straight positive Plus/Minus results.
The ceiling is low for Sosa, but the model expects him to make good on his salary level today against Cooper Criswell. The Red Sox righty is 3-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($8,200) at Los Angeles Angels
Without any $10,000 pitchers on the main slate, Framber Valdez edges out Garrett Crochet for the highest ceiling projection. Valdez has experienced mixed results so far in 2024, with a 4-3 record and a 3.95 ERA.
The strikeouts have been down this season for Valdez from a 24.8 K% in 2023 to a 18.9 K% this season. He has also struggled to get out of the fifth inning in some games. He has allowed 11 runs and four out of the five homers he’s allowed in the fifth frame.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Angels lineup has a .193 ISO and .354 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have a low home run projection and moderate park ratings from both sides of the plate tonight.
Hitter
Yordan Alvarez ($5,300) at Los Angeles Angels
Yordan Alvarez continues to be one of the highest ceiling hitters in the league with his power potential. He showcased those traits on June 1 with two home runs and a 35-point DraftKings game.
On the season, Alvarez is batting .285/.357/.485 with 12 home runs and 28 RBI. Thus far in June, he is on a .421/.476/.947 tear with a +1.86 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
The Astros head to Los Angeles for a weekend series with the Angels today. They have a plus matchup against right-hander Griffin Canning to open the series. Canning is 2-5 with a. 4.69 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 12 starts.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Chris Bassitt ($8,300) at Oakland Athletics
With a +1.24 average Plus/Minus over the last month, Chris Bassitt got back on track in May with a 3-2 record and a 2.40 ERA in five starts.
The other months of the season have not treated Bassitt as well. Overall, he is 6-6 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. In 12 starts, Bassitt allows a .330 wOBA and .402 xSLG with a 21.9 K%.
The model expects Bassitt to excel tonight against a mediocre Athletics lineup. Oakland strikes out at a 26.4% clip and they have a low park rating from both sides of the plate. He has a strong projection with an affordable price.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Julio Rodriguez ($5,100) at Kansas City Royals
The Mariners head to Kansas City with one of the highest implied run totals on the main slate. Their young superstar, Julio Rodriguez has largely been disappointing this season (.266/.312/.345) but may be starting to turn the corner.
Rodriguez has a +3.43 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He exploded on May 26 with 38 DraftKings points and has notched double-digit points in 50% of his games since that date.
After 32 home runs and 103 RBI last season, Rodriguez currently sits at five long bombs and 24 RBI through 64 games. The model likes him to add to those totals tonight against Daniel Lynch IV who has a 1.50 ERA in 12 total innings this season.
Nico Hoerner ($4,100) at Cincinnati Reds
Nico Hoerner is one of the better contact hitters in the league with a strikeout rate under 10%. If he can improve his 30.9 hard hit % to turn that contact into better production, Hoerner could be even more impactful for fantasy owners.
On the season, Hoerner is batting .252/.344/.352 with two home runs and 17 RBI. The lack of power caps his fantasy ceiling, but the model still loves him to make good on a $4,100 salary. He has exceeded his projection in 50% of games over his last 10 starts.
He will face Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo tonight in Cincinnati. Lodolo is 5-2 with a 3.11 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
