The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Enmanuel Valdez ($3,100): Second Baseman, Boston Red Sox
Enmanuel Valdez has been on another level since returning to the Boston Red Sox lineup at the end of May. The second baseman was called up from Triple-A last week, joining the active roster after Tyler O’Neill went down with a knee injury. Although his salary doesn’t reflect it yet, Valdez has cemented himself as an integral part of the Red Sox lineup.
Granted, it’s a small sample size, but Valdez is putting up MVP numbers since the calendars flipped to June. Over that modest stretch, the 25-year-old is 6-for-14, with two doubles, two homers, five RBI, and four runs scored. More importantly, his underlying metrics support ongoing success for the left-handed hitter.
Through 113 plate appearances on the season, Valdez sits on the elite end of the spectrum in several key categories. Specifically, he’s put together 10.4% barrel, 46.8% hard-hit, and 36.4% sweet spot rates, resulting in an average exit velocity of 90.8 mph, also putting him in the upper echelon of batters.
Finally, Valdez has the added advantage of batting against a righty. Literally, all of his production has come off right-handed pitchers, including all ten of his extra-base hits on the season and the entirety of his .432 slugging percentage. Jake Woodford got beat up in his first start of the season, and Valdez should extend that misery as a top value player on Thursday night.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Sonny Gray ($9,500) vs. Colorado Rockies
Through the first few months of the season, Sonny Gray has asserted himself as a Cy Young frontrunner. The St. Louis Cardinals ace has seven wins through ten starts, posting a 3.00 ERA, 12.2 K/9 rate, and 1.05 WHIP. He’s poised to maintain that torrid start with another strong showing against the lowly Colorado Rockies on tonight’s main slate.
As good as Gray has been, we could see him ratchet his traditional benchmarks even lower. Currently, the three-time All-Star is toting around a 2.65 FIP, implying that we could see his ERA drop further. That’s validated with his most recent efforts, as Gray has allowed just nine hits across his last 15.2 innings pitched. Predictably, this correlates with fewer earned runs against, with Gray allowing just four over that stretch. The resulting 2.87 ERA could be foreshadowing what to expect from the righty over his coming starts.
Of course, the Rockies will offer little resistance as Gray looks to sustain his current form. Collectively, Colorado hitters rank in the bottom half of the MLB in OPS and runs, posting respective benchmarks of .690 and 4.1 (runs per game). They’ve set the bar even lower over their more recent sample, falling to .641 and 2.7 since May 31.
Fantasy-wise, Gray will set himself apart from the rest of the starting pitchers with his sterling strikeout stuff. He sits in the 95th percentile with a 33.5% strikeout rate, fanning 24 batters over his last three outings for an eye-popping 13.8 K/9 rate. Combined with the Rockies’ free-swinging mentality, there will be no stopping Gray from reaching his fantasy ceiling at Busch Stadium.
Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,100) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to salvage the finale of their three-game set versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. LA has dropped the first two games of the inter-divisional showdown but gets to tee off a regression-bound Bailey Falter on Thursday night. It might not mean great things for every Dodger in the lineup, but surely, Mookie Betts will benefit.
Betts has one of the most disciplined approaches at the plate. The former MVP sits in the 96th percentile in whiff rate, 98th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 97th percentile in walk rate. And as we are seeing, he’s translated that to impressive on-field results from the leadoff spot. The Dodgers’ recently crowned shortstop ranks top ten in the majors in OPS and runs scored, complementing that standing with 26 extra-base hits, 32 RBI, and nine stolen bags.
However, Betts has fallen off that pace over the past week, suggesting that he’s due for a breakout performance. We’re expecting that to happen against Falter and the Pirates. At first glance, Falter appears to be on the verge of a breakout campaign, but his underlying metrics suggest otherwise. The former fifth-round pick is operating well above his 4.27 expected ERA and .268 expected batting average, posting marks of 3.22 and .197. Inevitably, Falter is due for regression.
Betts and the Dodgers can facilitate that correction in tonight’s series finale. Not surprisingly, Betts’ slugging percentage jumps ten points against lefties, with nine of his 26 extra-base hits coming in just 81 at-bats versus southpaws. We wouldn’t be surprised if he ends the night as the top performing fantasy batter on any slate.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($8,500) vs. New York Yankees
Losers of three of their past four, the Minnesota Twins are looking to pump the breaks on an underwhelming stretch. Thankfully, they have the right guy for the job in Pablo Lopez. The 28-year-old is coming off his most dominant start of the campaign. That could be the start of meaningful progression for an All-Star caliber pitcher who is operating below career norms and expected values.
Entering tonight’s tilt against the New York Yankees, Lopez has an inflated 4.84 ERA with only five wins across his first 12 starts of the season. That puts him well ahead of his career average of 3.95 and even further off his expected ERA of 2.99 this season. After two rough starts in the middle of May, we should see those numbers move back toward normal ranges.
In his last start, Lopez held the Houston Astros to just one earned run across 7.0 innings pitched, giving up just six hits while fanning six. Based on his current metrics, we’re expecting a similar performance in the Bronx. The hard-throwing righty rates in the 69th percentile or better in whiff rate, strikeout percentage, and expected ERA. That supports that we should continue to see the best he has to offer as actual stats balance with expected values.
It’s a daunting position to take against a scary Yankees lineup, but we like Lopez to build off his most recent start and put together another elite outing on Thursday night.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,500) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Fernando Tatis Jr. has re-asserted himself as a dynamic fantasy contributor, amplifying his profile with his recent performances. The two-time Silver Slugger has put up MVP-worthy numbers over his recent schedule, a standard he should maintain in Thursday’s clash versus the Arizona Diamondbacks.
No hitter can match Tatis’ recent efforts. He enters tonight’s AL West battle on an 11-game hitting streak, recording 19 hits, four extra-base knocks, six runs, and six RBI over that stretch. In doing so, the Padres slugger has raised his OPS to 1.408 in the month of June, a benchmark that should continue to climb.
Heading into tonight’s action, Tatis Jr. is still well below his expected metrics. His .443 slugging percentage is almost 100 points lower than his expected mark of .525. Likewise, he’s coming up short relative to his expected weighted on-base average of .386, posting a .352 OBP.
We’re betting that Tatis Jr. maintains his current pace well into the future. As such, we’re recommending him as one of our preferred plays on tonight’s docket.
TJ Friedl ($4,500) vs. Chicago Cubs
Injuries have slowed TJ Friedl’s start to the season, but the Cincinnati Reds outfielder has come back with a vengeance to start the month. Friedl has totaled 75.0 fantasy points in five games since the start of the month and should push that average even higher with another solid showing against the Chicago Cubs.
Friedl was hit by a fastball back on May 12 and initially expected to miss up to five weeks. He cut that recovery time in half, returning two and a half weeks later, on May 29. It took him a few games to get acclimated, but Friedl has recaptured his elite form.
The four-year pro enters the NL Central showdown on a four-game hitting streak, totaling five hits and two homers over that stretch. As expected, that renewed performance at the top of the lineup has yielded improved run production, with Friedl accounting for six RBI and five runs scored across that sample.
Javier Assad doesn’t offer anything to slow Friedl or the Reds. He’s a contact pitcher with sub-optimal barrel and hard-hit rates and his operating substantially ahead of his expected ERA (2.27 vs. 3.72). The left-handed batting Friedl should feast on Assad’s offerings, continuing his ascent up the fantasy leaderboards.
