The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Stuart Fairchild ($3,500): Outfielder, Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds have been one of the most prolific teams over the past week. As a team, the Reds have an eye-popping .788 OPS totaling 32 runs across six games, including 13 in last night’s series opener versus the Colorado Rockies. We’re anticipating another robust showing on Tuesday, this time with Stuart Fairchild getting in on the action.
Fairchild has been deployed intermittently but is projected to be in the starting lineup for tonight’s inter-divisional tilt. Moreover, he’s a natural progression candidate and should benefit from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field.
Heading into Tuesday’s showdown against the Rockies, Fairchild is operating below all of his expected metrics. His actual slugging percentage of .376 is nearly 30 points lower than expected (.404), while he remains shy of his expected weighted on-base average as well. Still, we’ve seen the best Fairchild has to offer over his recent sample. Since the start of May, the 28-year-old is contributing a .523 slugging percentage, with five of his 11 hits going for extra bags.
That upward trajectory is projected to continue into tonight’s contest in the thin mountain air of Denver. Fairchild leads our Projected Plus/Minus ratings with a tempting 2.65 rating. The Reds have been raking, and Fairchild will get in on the action tonight.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Fried ($9,000) vs. Boston Red Sox
The Atlanta Braves travel to Beantown for a classic showdown against the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night. The Braves are turning to their ace for the series opener, sending Max Fried to the bump for this inter-league showdown.
After missing the bulk of last season with a forearm injury, Fried is showing no ill effects of the injury. The former All-Star has a Cy Young-worthy 2.97 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through his first 11 starts of the campaign. More importantly, his analytics suggest that he’s poised to continue that run for the foreseeable future.
Fried has mastered inducing soft contact. The former first-round pick ranks in the 99th percentile with an average exit velocity of 84 mph. Similarly, he checks in with 4.3% barrel and 28.6% hard-hit rates, putting him in the 86th and 95th percentile, respectively.
Don’t let Fenway Park scare you away from rostering Fried on Tuesday night. The Red Sox have been one of the worst hitting teams in the majors, stringing together a lackluster .663 OPS and 25.9% strikeout rate. Likewise, they can’t figure things out against southpaws, combining for a .692 OPS and 32.2% strikeout rate on the season.
Fried is in need of a new contract, and he’s pitching like it. We’re betting that elite play continues into tonight’s contest, with Fried reaching the upper echelon of the fantasy spectrum against the Red Sox.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,400) vs. Minnesota Twins
If Aaron Judge maintains his current pace, there will be no denying him his second AL MVP award in three years. Judge has been on a Barry Bonds-esque pace over the past month, and based on his current metrics, he’s showing no signs of slowing down any time soon.
Since the start of May, Judge has an asinine .932 slugging percentage. Over that stretch, he’s clubbed 15 homers and 12 doubles, accounting for 27 of his 29 hits. However, the Yankees slugger is still operating below his expected level, with his .658 slugging percentage nearly 100 points off the expected benchmark of .749.
Inherent in that expected slugging percentage are several other noteworthy benchmarks. Judge is toting around an eye-popping 29.6% barrel rate and 63.2% hard-hit percentage, both of which put him in the 100th percentile. Combined with his top-end bat speed and velocity, we should see Judge set the standard even higher over the coming weeks.
There’s nothing that Bailey Ober can offer to slow Judge down. The Minnesota Twins starter ranks in the ninth percentile with an 11.9% barrel rate. Predictably, that correlates with a sub-standard expected ERA, with Bailey hovering around the 4.01 mark.
Judge has the highest fantasy ceiling of any batter on the main slate and by a wide margin. We’re expecting him to continue his fierce pace with another elite showing against the Twinkies.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
George Kirby ($8,800) vs. Oakland Athletics
May was a sub-optimal month for George Kirby. The Seattle Mariners’ flamethrower went a disappointing 1-3 last month with a 4.00 ERA, giving up four or more runs on three occasions. Thankfully, an intra-divisional tilt against the lowly Oakland Athletics should help Kirby get back on track and bolster his All-Star resume ahead of July.
Kirby is coming off arguably his best start of the season. The Cy Young contender held the Houston Astros to just one run over 6.0 innings pitched, striking out eight and allowing a paltry six base runners in the contest. Although he was ineffective at times, that was the fifth time over his last eight starts in which he held opponents to one or fewer runs.
Kirby is better than his 4-5 record implies, and that’s also reflected in his underlying metrics. The Mariners’ cornerstone is 50 points above his expected ERA of 3.56, while his 1.02 WHIP is the tenth lowest among qualified AL starters.
There’s nothing we can say about the Athletics that you haven’t already seen on your own. They remain one of the worst hitting teams in the majors, and there’s no reason to believe they snap out of that funk against the M’s. Add Kirby to your DFS rosters tonight and ride him to fantasy glory as he begins his ascent back to All-Star candidacy.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Cody Bellinger ($5,000) vs. Chicago White Sox
With some of the other MLB stars working their magic, it’s been easy to lose sight of Cody Bellinger. Still, the Chicago Cubs outfielder has been heating up over the past week, and should sustain that form into Tuesday’s clash against their crosstown rival the Chicago White Sox.
Bellinger is coming off a three-hit performance last time out against the Cincinnati Reds. In that contest, the former MVP swatted one double while driving in one, being responsible for most of the Cubs’ production. However, that was the sixth time in nine games in which Belli had recorded multiple hits. More importantly, he’s set himself apart with his resurgent power across that sample.
Dating back to the start of the nine-game sample, Bellinger has 14 hits, three doubles, and a homer, with all of the extra-base hits coming over his last five. As expected, the improved plate performances correlate with solid run production, with Bellinger accounting for five RBI and four runs scored.
We’re expecting Bellinger to replicate those performances against Chris Flexen. The White Sox righty has been one of the worst analytics arms in the majors this season, playing into Belli’s power stroke versus right-handers.
Bellinger’s salary has crept up since the end of May, but he’s worth the investment on tonight’s main slate, as he reaches his fantasy ceiling yet again.
Christopher Morel ($4,200) vs. Cincinnati Reds
You don’t have to take Bellinger alone- you can include Christopher Morel into a Cubs’ stack. These two batters are projected to bat third or fourth, letting DFS punters take advantage of what’s sure to be a one-sided affair.
Morel’s traditional stats don’t do his analytics profile justice. The Cubs’ third baseman rates as one of the top hitters in the bigs, sitting in the 92nd percentile in expected weighted on-base average and 97th percentile in bat speed. We’re also seeing a power stroke that has yet to translate to top-end production, with Morel posting a .503 expected slugging percentage, substantially ahead of his actual .371 benchmark.
Like Belli and the rest of his Cubs’ teammates, Morel gets to take advantage of an underwhelming White Sox starter. Flexen sits in the 46th percentile or worse in expected ERA, barrel rate, and strikeout percentage, illustrating that pitching to contact isn’t working for him.
Morel’s position near the top of our median and ceiling projections is validated by his PlateIQ profile, rating him as a top-end hitter. That makes Morel worth including on any format as he shows fantasy players just how high he can fly.
