The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Heston Kjerstad ($2,200): Outfielder, Baltimore Orioles
One of the countless young Orioles talents, Heston Kjerstad, notched his best big league performance at the plate last night against the Rangers. He scored 25 DraftKings points with a home run, three RBI, and two runs scored.
Kjerstad rejoined the Orioles on June 24 and has four hits in the last four games. In 55 total at-bats over the last two seasons, he is batting .236/.311/.436 with three home runs and six RBI.
Kjerstad is a lottery ticket with a lot of upside for the price tag. He and the Orioles will face veteran Max Scherzer tonight in his second start of the season. Scherzer threw five scoreless innings in his only outing of 2024.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Bailey Ober ($8,800) at Seattle Mariners
Despite a mediocre ERA, Bailey Ober is the highest projected ceiling on the main slate today. The Twins righty is 7-4 on the season with a 4.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
Ober has a +0.56 average Plus/Minus in 15 starts this season. He has a 25.2 K% and has run into some big innings, allowing 14 home runs on the season.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Mariners lineup has a .158 ISO and .306 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a low park rating from both sides of the plate but an elevated home run projection due to Ober’s track record. If he can avoid the long ball, Ober is a solid play.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,700) at Toronto Blue Jays
Will Aaron Judge hit another home run tonight? That has been the determining factor for his fantasy results over the last few weeks. He has only reached double-digit DraftKings points once since June 8 without hitting a ball over the fence.
Thankfully for fantasy owners, he keeps hitting home runs. Judge had an incredible May with 14 home runs and a .361/.479/.918 batting line. He followed that up in June with 10 home runs thus far and a .382/.495/.868 line.
The Yankees face left-hander Yusei Kikuchi tonight with a 4-7 record and a 4.00 ERA. The price tag is sky-high for Judge, but with five home runs in his last nine games there is a strong chance he lives up to that salary.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Logan Gilbert ($9,900) vs. Minnesota Twins
The model expects a pitching duel in Seattle, with Logan Gilbert and Bailey Ober topping the projections on the main slate. Gilbert has four straight positive Plus/Minus starts with two 30+ DraftKings point outings in a row.
On the season, Gilbert is 5-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He allows a .251 wOBA and 36.3% hard-hit rate.
The Twins lineup has a relatively low 20.9 K% against right-handed pitching this season, but they have a low park rating and hit projection tonight in Seattle. Gilbert has 17 strikeouts over his last two starts. If he can continue that trend, the model likes him to have another strong result.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Jarred Kelenic ($3,600) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
In his first season with Atlanta, Jarred Kelenic has posted the best numbers of his career with a .278/.320/.453 hitting line. His power numbers do lack start status, with eight home runs and 25 RBI in 66 games.
Kelenic has a +2.21 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games with six hits and four RBI over his last three games.
The Braves boast a high implied run total tonight against the Pirates and Martin Perez. The left-hander is 1-3 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 11 starts this season.
Ketel Marte ($5,100) vs. Oakland Athletics
Ketel Marte had an incredible 2019 season with 187 hits and 32 home runs. He has not come close to those numbers since, but 2024 may certainly be the year with his current pace.
The Diamondbacks second baseman is batting .282/.345/.518 with 17 home runs and 47 RBI. He sits fourth in the National League with 158 total bases and 54 runs scored. He had a pair of 21-point DraftKings results in their mid-week series with the Twins.
Oakland will send JP Sears to the mound tonight with a 4-7 record and a 5.04 ERA. He has a 1.33 WHIP and a very low 15.4 K%.
