The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Colt Keith ($2,800): Second Base, Detroit Tigers
Colt Keith is heating up with the summer temperatures, and he’s about to set a new high on Thursday. His Detroit Tigers open up a four-game set versus the Los Angeles Angels, and Keith is primed to continue his recent onslaught against Davis Daniel and the Halos bullpen.
After recording just one hit through his first eight games of the month, the Tigers second baseman has totaled 16 over his last 12. He’s been incredibly consistent throughout, recording a base knock in all but three of those outings and adding to four-hit outings. More importantly, Keith has re-discovered his power stroke, tallying three doubles and two home runs across that sample. Consequently, he’s toting around a .543 slugging percentage, but there’s more room to grow for the former fifth-round pick.
Heading into the second half of the season, Keith is performing below expected levels. His actual slugging percentage is 70 lower than expected, while his on-base percentage is 20 points off the mark. Expect both of his season-long averages to work their way back up ahead of the All-Star Break.
Keith has earned a promotion to the top of the Tigers batting order, enhancing his fantasy appeal. That factor hasn’t been priced into his salary yet, making him one of the top DFS values on the board. Our projections reflect as much, with Keith leading our Projected Plus/Minus on the main slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Jack Flaherty ($9,800) vs. Los Angeles Angels
With nine games spread out across four slates, there’s a limited amount of quality pitchers available. But small slate or not, Jack Flaherty has become a beacon of fantasy glory every time he steps onto the mound.
Flaherty has been a revelation this season. Across 14 starts, the former first-round pick has a minuscule 2.92 ERA and a corresponding .97 WHIP. Both of those metrics have come down over his recent sample, with Flaherty allowing just one earned run across his last four starts. Moreover, his analytics profile validates that success, implying that Flaherty is on a sustainable path moving forward.
The Tigers starter ranks in the 92nd percentile in several advanced categories, including expected ERA (92nd), strikeout percentage (95th), and whiff rate (95th). As implied, Flaherty has mixed his five-pitch arsenal unforgivingly, inducing swing-and-misses 34.2% of the time. That will cause issues for an ineffective Angels squad that ranks in the bottom half of the MLB in strikeouts and OPS.
Flaherty leads our median and ceiling projections by a wide margin. But with just one earned run allowed across his last 22.1 innings pitched and a 10.5 K/9 rate, we’re anticipating another game-changing performance against the lowly Angels.
Hitter
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,300) vs. Cleveland Guardians
The old saying is, “Chicks dig the long ball.” But as we’re finding out, it also wins MVP awards. Count us as cheerleaders in the Bobby Witt Jr. MVP parade, as the Kansas City Royals shortstop has cemented himself as the best player in the American League.
Witt Jr. is a true five-tool player, doing everything right on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Through the halfway point of the season, the former second-overall selection leads the AL in hits while appearing in all 82 games for the Royals. His 4.0 WAR nearly matches last year’s entire output of 4.4, and his analytics profile supports that we have yet to see him reach his peak.
Despite putting together an MVP-esque .537 slugging percentage, Witt Jr. is still a standard deviation away from his expected value of .598. We’re starting to see him take steps toward reaching that potential, with all four of his last hits going for extra bases. Included in that sample are two doubles, a triple, and a homer, highlighting Witt Jr’s elite combination of power and speed.
We’ll get to watch Witt Jr. flaunt those skills on Thursday night against Ben Lively and the Cleveland Guardians. Lively is a regression candidate, performing above his expected ERA and career norms. We’re starting to see that deterioration play out, with the Guardians’ probable starter giving up three long fly-balls over his past two starts.
Hop on the Witt Jr. MVP bandwagon and ride him to DFS glory.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Jose Berrios ($7,700) vs. New York Yankees
Nothing ever seems to go right for the Toronto Blue Jays. Either pitching is working, and the bats can’t get heat up, or the offense starts clicking, and the staff’s arms fall off. Irrespective of team success, Jose Berrios is an ideal buy-low candidate heading into Thursday’s main slate.
The Blue Jays righty has had an uncharacteristic June. Through four starts, Berrios is operating with a 5.56 ERA, allowing 30 baserunners and seven home runs over the 22.2 innings. Still, that’s not an accurate reflection of what we’ve come to expect from the two-time All-Star, and it’s time for his metrics to start falling back into normal ranges.
Since the start of last season, Berrios has an impressive 3.58 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 7.9 K/9 rate, all of which are better than what we’ve seen from him over his previous few starts. Further, the 30-year-old has a handful of top-end analytics supporting renewed success is on the horizon. Berrios has a 29.8% chase rate on the season and an optimal 6.9% barrel rate, both of which indicate that he’s better than his recent starts suggest.
Running into an ice-cold New York Yankees squad could be the confidence boost Berrios needs. The AL East leaders have a below-average .677 OPS over the past week, accumulating 52 strikeouts through six games. It’s unlikely they improve either of those benchmarks versus Berrios, who should start working back into his All-Star form in short order.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,500) vs. New York Yankees
Although we didn’t get to see them maintain their form after getting rained out on Wednesday night, the Blue Jays offense is showing signs of life. Led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Jays have totaled 20 runs over their last three games. They carry that momentum into tonight’s crucial AL East battle versus the Yankees, and we expect to see the best Vladdy Jr. has to offer.
Consistency has prevented Guerrero Jr. from unlocking his full potential, but he’s showing signs of sustaining his top-end performances. The former Silver Slugger has multi-hit efforts in three of his last four, totaling nine hits, three doubles, and three homers over that stretch. Those courageous efforts have elevated his season-long slugging percentage to .435, leaving him well short of his expected value of .530.
We’re anticipating that upward trajectory to continue into tonight’s showdown versus southpaw Carlos Rodon. At first glance, the Yankees ace appears to be performing well, but he’s operating substantially above expected levels. His actual ERA of 3.86 is nearly 100 points off expected (4.59), putting Rodon in the bottom 26% of MLB pitchers.
The right-handed batting Guerrer Jr. has an inherent advantage over the lefty, and both players are entering correction phases. The Blue Jays slugger is trending upward, while Rodon has allowed 12 earned runs over his past 8.2 innings pitched. Watch Guerrero Jr. take advantage of tonight’s matchup, easily surpassing his median projections and implied salary expectations.
Andres Gimenez ($4,500) vs. Kansas City Royals
The AL Central showdown between the Royals and Guardians has one of the highest totals on the board this evening. As discussed, Witt Jr. will do his part toward inching this one over the total, but the Guardians can deploy their own secret weapon to try and keep pace. Andres Gimenez has seen a dip in production lately, but he projects as a top value on Thursday’s main slate.
Totaling just one hit across his last 17 at-bats, Gimenez has watched his slugging percentage fall to .339, the lowest it’s been since the start of May. Thankfully, he gets to tee off changeup-heavy Michael Wacha, playing into Gimenez’s strengths.
Gimenez’s best work comes on offspeed pitches. His expected slugging percentage jumps to .449 versus offspeed offerings, above his overall benchmark of .366. With Wacha throwing his changeup 32.6% of the time, more than any other pitch, Gimenez will have plenty of solid looks to put the ball in play.
Predictably, most of the left-handed batting Gimenez’s best work has come off righties. Four of his five homers and 11 of his 16 extra-base hits have come off conventional arms, adding to his fantasy appeal against the Royals. Gimenez’s ownership numbers have dipped below 2.7% in five of his last eight, making him an ideal x-factor to separate your lineups on tonight’s small main slate.
