The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Wyatt Langford ($3,200): Outfielder, Texas Rangers
The heralded Rangers rookie outfielder may have found his big league stroke in June with a .310/.355/.521 batting line this month. Wyatt Langford has two of his three home runs in his last five games with 10 RBI in that span.
Season-long numbers are not as strong for Langford, but that puts him in value territory with a $3,200 salary. Overall, he is batting .254/.312/.371 with a .405 xSLG and .300 wOBA. His recent success at the plate has turned into a massive +6.75 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
Langford will try to stay hot as the Rangers open up a series in Milwaukee against Freddy Peralta. The righty is 5-4 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.17 in 15 starts.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Justin Steele ($8,500) at San Francisco Giants
Justin Steele has been unlucky in the win column through 10 starts the season. The Cubs lefty is 0-3 but has posted respectable numbers with a 3.16 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 10 starts.
After a 16-5 mark last season, Steele’s stat lines are actually better in 2024, with a .277 wOBA and 3.02 xERA allowed. His strikeout rate has ticked down a little bit to 23.7%.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Giants lineup has a .181 ISO and .340 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have a low park rating from both sides of the plate and low hit and home run projections.
Hitter
Bryan Reynolds ($4,500) at Cincinnati Reds
A muddle at the top of the ceiling projections shines a value spotlight on Bryan Reynolds with a similar upside, but a much lower salary than the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the main slate. Reynolds is going off for the Pirates in June with a .350/.409/.650 line and three home runs in his last four games.
This season, Reynolds is batting .275/.343/.466 with 12 home runs and 43 RBI. He is currently on a 20-game hit streak with a +4.83 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games.
Reynolds routinely puts up double-digit DraftKings point totals, but the model likes his ceiling potential for a standout performance tonight in Cincinnati. The Reds will trot out Carson Spiers for his second start of the season. He is 0-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in six appearances this season.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Freddy Peralta ($9,500) vs. Texas Rangers
A model favorite, Freddy Peralta sits atop the aggregate projections with the fourth-highest salary on the slate. His 31.0 K% creates high fantasy potential on a nightly basis, but Peralta has been up and down on the year.
Overall, Peralta is 5-4 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through 15 starts. He ranks sixth in the National League with 106 strikeouts and has allowed 11 home runs thus far. He has struggled in four June starts with a 5.49 ERA and 1.53 WHIP.
The Rangers have only three high wOBA and high ISO hitters in the projected lineup tonight. They have a low 18.5 K% against right-handed pitching this season, but the model likes Peralta’s 28.9 whiff % to win the day for fantasy players.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,500) vs. Miami Marlins
The Kansas City Royals have by far the highest implied run total on the slate against the Marlins. The matchup is good news for their talented shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who is on a mini-slump amidst an incredible offensive season.
Witt Jr. has just three hits in is last six games and a -4.39 average Plus/Minus over the last 10. He still clears the .300 batting average mark for the season with his impressive production prior to the recent slide. On the season, Witt Jr. is hitting .311/.359/.531. He ranks in the top-5 of American League hitters with 20 doubles, 99 hits, seven triples, and 60 runs scored.
The Royals face rookie right-hander Roddery Munoz of the Marlins tonight. Munoz is 1-2 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in six starts. This is a good spot for Witt Jr. to get back on track.
Jarren Duran ($5,400) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Jarren Duran continues to produce for the Red Sox and fantasy players with his versatility at the plate. He leads the American League with 22 doubles and 10 triples and sits fourth with 20 stolen bases on the season.
Even without elite power numbers, Duran has six 20+ DraftKings point games thus far in June, with a +5.87 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has multiple hits in each of his last four and eight of his last 11 starts.
The Red Sox open the early-week series against the Blue Jays tonight against veteran Chris Bassitt. The 35-year-old righty is 6-6 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the season.
