The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Tyler Soderstrom ($2,300): First Baseman, Oakland Athletics
A rare Oakland Athletics sighting near the top of the bargain ratings, Tyler Soderstrom is a unique value with his strong recent performance and low $2,300 price tag.
This season, Soderstrom’s numbers are mediocre, with a .232/.330/.432 batting line with five home runs and 13 RBI in 34 games. He has turned it on in June with a .275/.351/.529 mark and four of his long bombs coming in the month. He has an awesome +4.29 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games, including two 20+ DraftKings point results.
Oakland faces right-hander Chris Paddack and the Twins today. Paddack is 5-3 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 14 starts.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Dylan Cease ($10,00) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
A 6-6 record and 3.95 ERA won’t blow the socks off of most fantasy owners, but Dylan Cease continues to amass big fantasy totals with his strikeout potential. He is second in the National League with 106 punchouts through 86.2 innings for a 29.9 K%.
Cease is coming off the worst performance of his season on June 16, where he allowed seven earned runs. His numbers have tailed off a bit after a brilliant month of April, with only one 25+ Draftkings point total in his last four starts.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Brewers lineup has a .148 ISO and .331 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Petco Park is brutal for right-handed hitters, and the Brewers have a low hit and run projection tonight. Cease is a solid option with high strikeout upside.
Hitter
Tyler O’Neill ($5,000) at Cincinnati Reds
After Shohei Ohtani, two Red Sox hitters top the ceiling projections on the main slate. Tyler O’Neill is a little cheaper than Rafael Devers and has stronger recent production with three home runs in his mid-week series against the Blue Jays.
O’Neill has topped 14 home runs on a season just once in his seven-year big league career. He already has 15 long bombs this season with 26 RBI in 51 games. He has a .258/.353/.543 stat line with a .531 xSLG and 50.0 hard hit %.
With a +3.93 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, O’Neill looks to continue his hot streak against Andrew Abbott and the Reds. The 25-year-old left-hander is 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 14 starts.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
George Kirby ($9,400) at Miami Marlins
George Kirby continues to produce for fantasy owners with four straight positive Plus/Minus results. Without a crazy strikeout rate, Kirby succeeds by keeping hitters off balance and limiting free base runners.
In 15 starts, Kirby is 6-5 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He allows an insanely low 2.6 BB% to pair with a moderate 24.0 K%. Hitters have a .239 xBA and .278 wOBA against him this season.
Miami has a low .132 ISO and .288 wOBA against right-handers this season. Only three of their hitters have a high wOBA, and two have a high ISO in today’s projected lineup. Expect another consistent performance from Kirby, but his ceiling is somewhat limited.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
CJ Abrams ($6,200) at Colorado Rockies
With the Colorado bump, the Washington Nationals have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate and CJ Abrams gets the largest boost in today’s projections. He is listed as day-to-day with a cyst on his wrist, but is a great lineup option if he gets the start.
The 23-year-old is batting .261/.313/.478 on the season with 11 home runs and 36 RBI. His speed adds some value on the base paths with five triples and 10 stolen bases. In June, he is batting .314/.386/.569 with two home runs and 10 RBI.
The Nationals travel to the best hitter’s park in the league tonight to face Dakota Hudson. The Rockies righty is 2-9 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
Ryan McMahon ($4,800) vs. Washington Nationals
Expect a lot of attention on the Nationals and Rockies tonight in Colorado. For the price, Ryan McMahon is an interesting value option to take advantage of the high upside matchup.
McMahon is batting .274/.349/.477 on the season with 13 home runs and 40 RBI. He has a strong 54.5 hard hit % and 93.9 mph average exit velocity. One the last 10 games, McMahon has a +3.51 average Plus/Minus with five 16+ DraftKings point returns in that span.
The Nationals trot out rookie DJ Herz today at Coors Field in his fourth career start. Herz is 1-1 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through his first three outings.
