The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Andrew Benintendi ($2,500): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
Our bargain rating is popping off on Thursday’s early slate, with a number of players projected to outperform market expectations. Among those stands Andrew Benintendi, who has had a resurgent few games since returning from an Achilles injury.
In limited action this month, the White Sox outfielder has been a game-changer. Benintendi has totaled five hits in 13 at-bats this month, including two homers and a double. The ensuing .923 slugging percentage puts him substantially ahead of his season-long benchmark of .307. But Benintendi is still operating well below expected levels, implying that more growth is anticipated over his coming games.
That torrid pace should continue against Spencer Arrighetti. The Houston Astros probable starter has struggled this season, ranking in the 24th percentile in expected ERA, thanks in part to his 7.8% barrel and 39.6% hard-hit rates. Arrighetti has already given up four long fly balls in just 10.0 innings pitched this month and will be serving up meatballs for Benintendi and the rest of the White Sox lineup.
Benintendi’s rostering percentage typically hovers below 2.0%. As such, he can be a low-key catalyst against inferior pitching on Thursday, setting your roster apart on the early slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Seth Lugo ($9,500) vs. Oakland Athletics
Seth Lugo has been one of the most unexpected surprises this season. The former 34th-round pick has already exceeded his career-high, winning 10 games through his 15 starts of the season. Combined with his sparkling 2.40 ERA, that league-leading benchmark gives him the inside track in making his first All-Star Game appearance of his major league career. More relevantly, he’s poised to sustain that elite performance in Thursday’s battle against the Oakland Athletics.
Lugo has been unstoppable all season. Eleven of his 15 starts have been of the quality variety, with the tall right-hander allowing a career-best 1.05 walks and hits per inning pitched. Moreover, the 34-year-old has allowed more than two earned runs just three times this season. Still, we’re anticipating an uptick in strikeouts from Lugo, who is operating below normal ranges in strikeout percentage and K/9 rates.
That position is also validated by his insane eight-pitch repertoire. Lugo can throw everything but the kitchen sink at batters, keeping them off-guard with his smattering of offerings. Outside of his sinker, he induces a whiff rate above 16.0% with all of his pitches, with his curveball and slurve coming in at 34.3% and 32.8%, respectively.
Lastly, Lugo’s fantasy ceiling is impacted by the Atheltics’ free-swinging lineup. Oakland has accumulated the second-most strikeouts this season, walking back to the dugout 29.1% of the time.
This pitcher-friendly matchup should let Lugo continue his early-season onslaught and reach his full fantasy potential, validating his position atop our median and ceiling projections.
Hitter
Jose Altuve ($5,200) vs. Chicago White Sox
We are heading back to the Houston Astros versus Chicago White Sox for our premier hitter. This AL showdown features one of the highest totals on the board, implying that runs should be plentiful when these squads take to the field for the matinee. The Astros are seeing the best Jose Altuve has to offer lately, and he should carry that momentum into Thursday’s series finale.
Consistency issues have kept Altuve out of the MVP conversation this year, but when he’s at his best, the Astros second baseman shows that he’s still got league-leading capabilities. The former MVP had a sterling first month of the season, ending April with an OPS above 1.000. Although he fell off that pace in May, he’s recaptured that form with his latest efforts.
Heading into today’s action, Altuve has hits in eight of his last 11 outings. Over that stretch, the six-time Silver Slugger has totaled 16 hits, including two doubles and two home runs. As expected, that’s yielded improved run production from his usual spot atop the Astros order, with Altuve driving in eight and coming around to score seven more.
Still, Altuve’s .800 OPS on the season puts him below his career standard of .833 and further off his .918 standing from the past couple of seasons. With Chris Flexen putting together one of the worst analytics profiles in the game, Altuve should have no problem maintaining his hot streak. While it may be tempting to look in other directions, Altuve has one of the most promising fantasy profiles available.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Zack Littell ($8,000) vs. Minnesota Twins
Wins have been sparse for the Tampa Bay Rays recently. The typically stout Rays currently reside in the AL East basement, sitting an uncharacteristically bad four games below .500. Thankfully, they can build off Wednesday’s extra-innings win, sending Zack Littell to the mound for today’s series finale against the Minnesota Twins.
Littell is poised for a bounce-back effort after his last disastrous outing. The righty lasted just 2.0 innings against the Atlanta Braves this weekend, getting roughed up for seven runs on eight hits and a walk. However, that ended a run of three straight quality starts, in which Littell had brought his season-long ERA down to 3.63. After his last start, that number has inflated back to 4.24, putting him above his expected ERA of 4.11.
Relying on a knee-buckling slider-split finger combination, Littell has been one of the best pitchers in the majors at getting batters to chase pitches outside the zone. His 31.4% chase rate puts him in the 78th percentile, putting him on track for the most strikeouts of his career. Sitting just three shy of that target, Littell could reach his goal against a Twins side that he started his career with.
You wouldn’t know it from his modest $8,000 salary, but Littell has one of the top ceilings. His latest setback notwithstanding, Littell has been trending in the right direction with his recent efforts. He can build off those performances and send the Rays into the weekend on a high note with a resurgent effort against his former squad.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Will Smith ($5,800) vs. Colorado Rockies
Not surprisingly, the ball has been flying out of Coors Field since the Los Angeles Dodgers came to down. LA and the Colorado Rockies have combined for 47 runs through the first three games of their NL West showdown, a total that should ratchet higher after Thursday’s finale. Will Smith has been ineffective to open the series, but should reverse course on that underwhelming production with a slate-best performance.
Although he was out of the starting lineup on Wednesday, Smith has recorded just one hit in ten at-bats this series. That drops his month-long OPS to a bench-worthy .652, but it’s time for the pendulum to start swinging in the other direction. Smith’s .354 slugging percentage this month puts him over 100 points off his season-long average of .479. Further, he continues to rate on the top end of the spectrum in barrel and hard-hit rates, coming in at 10.9% and 45.3%, respectively.
A date with Ty Blach should yield improved results. The Rockies’ southpaw pitches to hard contact, a combination that doesn’t play well in the thin mountain air in Denver. Blach bottoms out in the 10th percentile in expected ERA, posting below-average benchmarks in barrel and hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
Predictably, the right-handed batting Smith also reserves his best efforts for southpaws. In 78 plate appearances this season, his OPS jumps to an eye-popping 1.116, with 12 of his 24 hits going for extra bases. Combined with Blach’s ineffectiveness, Smith should have no problem reaching his ceiling and ending the day as one of the top-performing batters.
Julio Rodriguez ($5,000) vs. Cleveland Guardians
We’re taking a similar approach with our final selection, highlighting Julio Rodriguez as a batter to target. J-Rod has a favorable righty vs. lefty matchup against Logan Allen of the Cleveland Guardians, an advantage that he typically wields unmercifully.
Although it hasn’t been a spectacular start to the season for Rodriguez, we always see the best he has to offer against lefties. So far this season, his OPS jumps 130 points versus southpaws, which is an unsurprising outcome considering the usual advantages that come into play. But combined with Allen’s poor analytics profile and J-Rod’s expected progression, we should see Rodriguez exploit those advantages en route to a standout performance.
Analytically, Allen rates as one of the worst. He sits in the 18th percentile or lower in expected ERA, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and expected slugging percentage. None of which will stand up against Rodriguez’s hot bat versus lefties. However, the Mariners outfielder is operating substantially below expected levels, putting up a .315 OPB and .355 slugging percentage compared to his expected benchmarks of .331 and .438.
All signs point toward a renewed effort from J-Rod on Thursday. He’s amplified production over the past few weeks, but we should see just how hard Rodriguez can swing in today’s series finale.
