The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
David Hamilton ($3,00): Shortstop, Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox continue to get everything they possibly can out of Rafael Devers, and they’re starting to get more robust production from top to bottom in their order. One of those players who have stepped up more recently is David Hamilton, who once again projects as a top value on Thursday’s main slate.
Technically in his rookie campaign, Hamilton is finding his rhythm as a full-time big leaguer. The 26-year-old opened the year on a tepid streak but is doing everything right over the past couple of weeks. Since June 2, Hamilton has delivered a .688 slugging percentage, recording multiple hits in five of nine contests. As inferred, there’s also been a surge in power, with Hamilton recording four doubles and two homers over that stretch.
Ongoing success is anticipated for the Red Sox shortstop. Hamilton ranks in the upper-echelon of MLB hitters in sweet spot contact rating, thanks to his disciplined approach at the plate. The youngster is looking for pitches inside the zone, and it’s obviously working.
All of that is without even considering his elite speed on the basepaths. Hamilton has four stolen bags over the same nine-game sample, bringing his season-long total up to 13 in 43 games. If you haven’t been paying attention already, now is the time to take note — Hamilton is turning into a top-end fantasy producer. For now, he remains one of the top values available.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Joe Ryan ($9,500) vs. Oakland Athletics
There aren’t any holes in the Minnesota Twins starting rotation, and that’s because they’re loaded with arms like Joe Ryan’s. The fourth-year major leaguer is a stalwart every time he’s toeing the rubber, and it’s about time that he starts getting rewarded for his elite efforts. We’re expecting that to come in Thursday’s inter-divisional battle against the Oakland Athletics.
Through 13 starts on the season, Ryan only has four wins to his name. This is despite operating a 0.97 WHIP and 3.30 ERA while using his five-pitch arsenal for a 9.7 K/9 rate. Combined with his spectacular underlying metrics, Ryan is poised to go on a heater ahead of the MLB All-Star Break.
Ryan continues to masterfully mix his five offerings. Relying primarily on a four-seamer, he also induces a 20.3% whiff rate on his slider, 26.6% with his splitter, and 31.8% with his sweeper while incorporating the occasional sinker to keep batters guessing. All told, Ryan has a 25.4% whiff rate and a more impressive 29.7% chase rate, putting him above average in both categories. Predictably, that correlates with an even tidier 27.4% strikeout rate, placing Ryan among the top 21% of MLB pitchers.
Since opening the year with 5.1 innings of one-run ball versus the Kansas City Royals, Ryan has rattled off quality starts in nine of his last 12 outings. Equally as impressively, the Twins righty has made it into the sixth inning in all but one of those contests. With the beleaguered A’s on deck tonight, Ryan should have no problem extending both of those trends into his next start. He leads our median and ceiling projections, making him the top pitcher available on Thursday night.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) vs. Texas Rangers
It’s already June, but we’re still not tired of talking about how great Shohei Ohtani is. The two-time AL MVP is looking to add an NL variety to his mantle. The way things are going, no one is going to deny him the accomplishment, as a designated hitter, no less.
Ohtani sets the standards in terms of analytics. He rates in the 99th percentile or better in nearly every offensive category, including expected slugging percentage, barrel, and hard-hit rates. Not surprisingly, the corresponding 94.8 mph average exit velocity also puts him at the top end of the spectrum relative to his MLB counterparts.
But more importantly, Ohtani has been able to translate those metrics to some of the best run production in the MLB while sitting in the heart of the Los Angeles Dodgers loaded lineup. Already, he’s accounted for 51 runs and 44 RBI while sending 17 balls into orbit. Those home run tallies factor into his 37 extra-base hits, which has contributed to a .587 slugging percentage. Still, that leaves him 60 points shy of expecting, implying that Ohtani could ratchet production even higher over the coming weeks.
Ohtani could be on the precipice of a breakout. Coming into tonight’s showdown against the Texas Rangers, he has homered in two straight games and extra-base hits in four of his last seven. With plenty of room to grow, Ohtani is expected to maintain that pace for the foreseeable future, a fact that is also reflected in his PlateIQ profile. No one is expected to exceed his production tonight, making Ohtani a must-roster in any format.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Luis Castillo ($8,500) vs. Chicago White Sox
Editor’s note: Castillo was scratched after this article was submitted. Check MLB Player Models for updates.
Heading into tonight’s tilt, Castillo has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. His most recent effort was his worst over that stretch, but was somewhat expected after throwing 7.0 shutout innings of two-hit ball in his previous start. The hard-throwing righty has had no issues getting length out of his outings either, pitching into the sixth inning in all but two of those outings across the 11-game sample.
Moreover, Castillo continues to set himself apart fantasy-wise with his solid strikeout metrics. The three-time All-Star forces batters to chase 31.8% of the time, ranking in the 81st percentile in chase rate, contributing to a 24.9% strikeout percentage. He’ll have an opportunity to improve on both of those metrics against a free-swinging Chicago White Sox side that has accumulated the tenth-most strikeouts in the majors.
It hasn’t been the start to the season that Luis Castillo envisioned. The Seattle Mariners entered the campaign as a frontrunner in the AL Cy Young futures market, but has stumbled to a 5-7 record out of the gates. Still, armed with one the nastiest sliders in the game, Castillo has turned a corner with his latest efforts.
Castillo perceived value has plummeted, making this the ideal time to buy low on the savvy veteran. He’s been rostered less than 7.8% of the time in his last two appearances, and that could falter further after his most recent showing. Nevertheless, he sits near the top of projections, making him the top bargain arm available on the main slate.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Corbin Carroll ($4,500) vs. Los Angeles Angels
After struggling for the first few months of the season, Corbin Carroll is rediscovering the form that made him last year’s NL Rookie of the Year. The Arizona Diamondbacks slugger should have no problem extending his recent hot streak and continuing his upward trajectory against the Los Angeles Angels.
Carroll is riding a modest four-game hitting streak into tonight’s inter-league affair versus the Halos, but he’s been much more productive since the calendars flipped to June. Since the start of the month, the 23-year-old has a .791 OPS, putting him substantially ahead of his .608 year-long average. But with Carroll remaining below his expected on-base and slugging percentages, more growth is anticipated.
As expected, we’re seeing better run production from Carroll with his improved efficiency at the plate. He’s come around to score nine times already this month, nearly matching last month’s 13 in his first 11 outings. Moreover, the D-Backs outfielder has totaled seven of those runs over his previous six, making him the fantasy force we expected him to be since the start of the season.
Analytically, Griffin Canning ranks as one of the worst MLB pitchers. Bad news for the Angels but a good omen for Carroll, who should have no problem reaching his fantasy ceiling on Thursday night. Combined with his modest $4,500 salary, Carroll could be the ultimate x-factor on the main slate.
Pete Alonso ($5,100) vs. Miami Marlins
With just a few weeks before the annual Home Run Derby, Pete Alonso is slowly starting to ramp into his usual All-Star capacity. Alonso has increased his slugging percentage to .486 in the month of June, putting him well ahead of May’s .439 benchmark. But with Roddery Munoz serving him up from the mound, the Polar Bear will be ready to feast against the Miami Marlins.
Alonso has had more success getting barrel to ball over his recent sample. Since the start of the month, five of his nine hits have gone for extra bags, totaling three doubles and two long fly balls. More importantly, he’s driven his barrel rate up to 13.1%, bringing him up to the 87th percentile. That correlates with an improved expected slugging percentage, but there’s still room to grow for Alonso.
That should come in tonight’s NL East battle against the Fish. Munoz’s ineffective style plays into Alonso’s strengths, as he bottoms out in the first percentile in barrel rate and expected ERA.
Munoz’s pitches will look like Home Run Derby balls to Alonso, and we’re expecting similar results. The two-time Home Run Derby Champ will proliferate tonight and maintain his current elite form. Don’t pass up Alonso in a dream main slate matchup.
