The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jose Abreu ($2,400): First Baseman, Houston Astros
After a lengthy career with the White Sox, Jose Abreu has not found the same consistent production at the plate in the last two seasons with Houston. In 106 at-bats this season, Abreu is batting .132/.177/.208 with two home runs and seven RBI.
His DraftKings price has plummeted from his last White Sox campaign in 2022, where he hit over .300. Now in bargain territory on a short slate, Abreu showed some life over the weekend against the Angels with two 14-point DraftKings games in the three-game stretch.
The ceiling is limited, but Abreu has a +0.82 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He faces San Francisco lefty Kyle Harrison with a 4-3 record, 4.18 ERA, and 1.39 WHIP.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Dylan Cease ($10,300) vs. Oakland Athletics
The model loves all the Padres on today’s short slate. Dylan Cease looks to improve on his 5-5 record and 3.51 ERA today against an Athletics lineup primed to allow fantasy points.
Cease has the highest ceiling projection on the slate but has not lived up to that billing recently. He has allowed at least three runs in each of his last six starts. His last upside fantasy performance came on May 8, where Cease notched 12 strikeouts in seven scoreless innings.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Athletics lineup has a .156 ISO and .302 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Cease has a high 30.5 K%, and Oakland has a high 27.1 K% in the batter’s box. The model expects that combination to lead to a strong fantasy performance for Cease tonight.
Hitter
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($5,500) vs. Oakland Athletics
What a start to June for Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. The 25-year-old is batting .472/.537/.806 in nine games this month with three long bombs. He has a +4.19 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with two home runs over the weekend.
On the season, Tatis Jr. is batting .281/.359/.467 with 12 home runs and 34 RBI. His ceiling is sky high with a .557 xSLG, .307 xBA, and 53.6 hard hit %.
The Padres take on the Athletics in San Diego today with Joey Estes on the mound for the visitors. He makes his eighth big league start with a career 2-2 record and 5.35 ERA.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Logan Gilbert ($9,800) vs. Chicago White Sox
Logan Gilbert sits firmly in second in both projected fantasy points and the salary chart on the short slate. On the season, Gilbert is 3-4 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
Gilbert started the season with a strong April, allowing eight runs in the month. He then allowed eight runs in one start on May 9 and has struggled for consistency since.
With a moderate 23.6 K%, Gilbert needs to limit the extra-base hits tonight against the White Sox. The Chicago lineup certainly is capable of laying some eggs with a .148 ISO and .297 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Trevor Larnach ($4,000) vs. Colorado Rockies
The Twins welcome Colorado to town and have a lofty implied run total, even with the game in Minnesota. Trevor Larnach rises to the top of the projections with the short slate with a strong projected Plus/Minus.
Larnach is batting .265/.331/.444 in 36 games with six home runs and 18 RBI. He has a .378 xwOBA and .526 xSLG.
The ceiling is a bit capped for Larnach, but he should have some opportunities to produce today against Dakota Hudson. The Rockies righty is 2-7 with a. 5.25 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He is 2-4 with a 3.41 ERA in six road starts.
Anthony Volpe ($4,900) at Kansas City Royals
The Yankees shortstop has lofty expectations in New York, but Anthony Volpe is starting to live up to those in 2024. He is batting .280/.342/.428 on the season with six home runs and 25 RBI.
Volpe uses his speed to add fantasy scoring potential with six triples and 12 stolen bases. He is fourth in the American League with 76 hits and leads the league in at-bats in the leadoff spot.
He looks for his fourth double-digit DraftKings result in the last eight games today against Seth Lugo and the Royals. Lugo has been incredible at 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA in 13 starts.
