The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lenyn Sosa ($2,300): Third Baseman, Chicago White Sox
Lenyn Sosa is an interesting cheap flyer on a recent hot streak. The White Sox third baseman has two of his four home runs this season in his last five games. He has at least two hits in each of those five games, with six total RBI.
Sosa is batting .252/.287/.392 on the season with 15 RBI and a pair of stolen bases in 43 games. He has a +3.77 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games and a 44.9 hard hit % overall.
Bryan Hoeing makes his first start of the season tonight for Miami after 11 relief appearances. He has an impressive 1.83 ERA through 19.2 innings.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Tyler Glasnow ($10,800) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
In five June starts, Tyler Glasnow allowed one run or less in three outings and five runs each in the other two. He managed 12 strikeouts in one of the down games to save his fantasy day, but couldn’t save his latest start on June 29 and lasted just three innings with one strikeout.
On the season, Glasnow is 8-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. In 17 starts, he has a 33.9 K% and .194 xBA.
The model expects Glasnow to get back on track tonight against the Brewers. Using PlateIQ, the projected Milwaukee lineup has a .131 ISO and .340 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a low hit and run projection with a decent home run expectation.
Hitter
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,800) at Colorado Rockies
Lost of fantasy eyes will be on Bobby Witt Jr. tonight in Coors Field. He tops the ceiling rankings with a massive projection in the best hitter-friendly park in the league. The Royals star 24-year-old leads the American League with 113 hits and 24 doubles.
Witt Jr. is having the best statistical season of his young career with a .319/.369/.556 batting line. He has 14 home runs and 58 RBI with 22 stolen bases as one of the most versatile fantasy scorers in the league.
The model expects Witt Jr. to extend his 14+ DraftKings point game streak to five games tonight against Kyle Freeland. The Rockies lefty is 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA on the season.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($9,400) vs. Houston Astros
Pablo Lopez is an interesting option tonight with a low floor and high ceiling. The Twins right-hander has the fifth-most strikeouts (110) and the fifth-most runs allowed (52) in the American League.
Overall, Lopez is 8-6 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 17 starts this season. He was 3-1 in June with a 5.00 ERA and has similar splits for home/away games and against hitters on both sides of the plate. He has 23 strikeouts over his last two starts with 30.5 and 48.2 DraftKings points totals.
The Astros have two high-ISO hitters in today’s lineup, but are one of the toughest teams to strikeout in the league with a 19.1 K%.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Maikel Garcia ($5,400) at Colorado Rockies
Kansas City has the highest implied run total on the main slate as they visit Colorado this weekend. Friday’s matchup with Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is juicy for the visitors as Freeland still searches for his first win of the season. In six starts, he is 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA.
Maikel Garcia is the highest-rated Royals hitter in the model despite a -1.84 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. In his second full big league season, Garcia is batting .226/.279/.333 with five home runs and 40 RBI.
Garcia struggled in June with a .142/.209/.189 batting line and has just one hit so far in July. The model expects strong offensive output from Kansas City tonight, and Garcia should be a prime beneficiary.
Jonathan India ($4,000) vs. Detroit Tigers
The ceiling may not be sky high for Jonathan India with six home runs and 35 RBI on the season, but he has still reached 20+ DraftKings points three times in the last 10 games. He has a +7.60 average Plus/Minus over that span with just one long bomb.
India is batting .278/.383/.415 and has a knack for reaching base for free with 42 BB and seven HBP. He has a .284 xBA and a 41.6% sweet spot rate on the season.
The Reds take on right-hander Reese Olson tonight in Cincinnati. Olson is an unlucky 2-8 in 16 starts with a respectable 3.32 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
