The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Xavier Edwards ($2,300): Second Base/Shortstop, Miami Marlins
We’re expecting some fireworks on the 4th of July, and we’re expecting Xavier Edwards to light some of the fuses. The Miami Marlins shortstop is an underrated infielder worth rostering on Thursday’s early slate, with a fantasy ceiling violently surpassing his salary expectations.
The Marlins have shielded their young prospect for most of the season but decided to take the training wheels off at the start of July. The NL East basement dweller designated Tim Anderson for assignment, acknowledging that Edwards is the future of the franchise.
So far, the Marlins have to be pleased with their decision. The 24-year-old has recorded a hit in each of the two games since being recalled from Triple-A, including notching a double on Wednesday night. That elevates Edwards’ barrel rate to an exceptional 11.1%, an indicator of what to expect from the switch-hitter.
It’s worth noting that all of Edwards’ damage has come as a left-handed batter. The former 38th-overall draft pick is 4-for-13 off righties, representing a .462 slugging percentage and .819 OPS. Boston Red Sox probable starter Nick Pivetta has been hit hard in each of his past three outings, a trend that will continue thanks to Edwards and the Marlins.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Bailey Ober ($8,700) vs. Detroit Tigers
The early slate features a bevy of mid-range pitching options, with Bailey Ober standing above the rest. The Minnesota Twins starter gets an ideal matchup at home versus an ice-cold Detroit Tigers squad, ensuring Ober reaches his fantasy ceiling on Independence Day.
Reaching his ceiling has been a consistent endeavor for Ober lately. The soft-throwing righty has mixed five-pitch repertoire flawlessly over his last three starts, limiting opponents to four earned runs across 21.1 innings pitched. That’s dropped his season-long ERA to 4.30, but there’s still room to go.
Heading into today’s intra-divisional battle, Ober has an above-average 3.63 expected ERA and 4.02 FIP, both of which substantiate ongoing progression. Moreover, Ober has been a master at inducing soft contact, ranking in the 68th percentile in average exit velocity and 62nd percentile in hard-hit rate.
Those metrics will continue to improve against a toothless Tigers side. At their best, Detroit is a middling offensive team, accumulating a .665 OPS on the season. Somehow, that’s fallen even further over the past week, dipping to .605.
The Twins enter Thursday’s series finale as steep -200 chalk, validating Ober’s position atop our projections. The Twins starter should have no problem reaching his full potential, perpetuating his elite run against the lackluster Tigers.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($6,400) vs. Chicago White Sox
Jose Ramirez has re-entered the AL MVP conversation. The Cleveland Guardians third baseman has been in full-send mode over the past few weeks, a position that should continue in Thursday’s showdown versus Jared Shuster and the Chicago White Sox.
Although he’s been held hitless through the first two games of the series, there are several indicators supporting renewed confidence in Ramirez. First, he’s been mashing the ball of late. Eight of Ramirez’s last 13 hits have gone for extra bases, including five home runs. Over that 11-game span, Ramirez has an MVP-worthy .689 slugging percentage, bringing his season-long average up to .545. Secondly, the four-time Silver Slugger rakes versus southpaws. Ramirez’s slugging percentage jumps to .680 off lefties this season, 200 points above his .482 benchmark against right-handers.
Lastly, Jared Shuster has been an unadulterated mess every time he steps onto the mound. The lefty ranks in the 14th percentile with a 4.94 expected ERA and sixth percentile with a .291 expected batting average. Predictably, his poor analytics don’t end there, with Shuster allowing a disastrous .436 expected slugging percentage.
There’s a lot to like about Ramirez’s fantasy profile. That’s reflected in our projections, placing him as the median and ceiling leader, but also captured in his elite PlateIQ profile. You can rely on Ramirez to deliver your team to fantasy glory on Thursday’s early slate.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Chris Bassitt ($8,000) vs. Houston Astros
Consistency continues to limit the Toronto Blue Jays team’s success, but they continue to get the most out of Chris Bassitt. The former All-Star capped an otherwordly June with another masterful performance, an upward trajectory that should continue in Thursday’s tilt versus the Houston Astros.
Bassitt stymied the New York Yankees for 6.0 innings giving up a lone unearned run in earning his first victory since June 2. Across all six starts in June, Bassitt was a sterling 2-0 with a 1.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9. Continuing to rate with above-average hard-hit and barrel rates, Bassitt is positioned for success moving forward.
Bassitt has a seemingly neverending repertoire of pitches to choose from, keeping batters guessing every time he sets on the mound. The Jays righty has eight pitches to choose from, relying on his four-seamer least of all. Bassitt throws his heater just 3.3% of the time, preferring to sink and cut his fastball. That has elicited sterling results, with Bassitt ranking on the top end of the spectrum with a .396 expected slugging percentage.
Although Bassitt’s run will inevitably come to an end, we’re anticipating one more elite performance before heading into a correction (regression) phase. He should get the better of the Astros on a quick turnaround from night to day game, delivering another standout effort.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Anthony Volpe ($4,300) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Lost in all the hoopla of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and the New York Yankees dominance is Anthony Volpe. The Yankees shortstop has flashed his power more recently and has plenty of opportunities to score from the top of the order. That leaves him with fantasy potential above the implied value of his $4,300 salary.
Lately, Volpe has been swinging with confidence. Five of his last 13 hits have resulted in extra bases, correlating with improved run production. Over that 13-game stretch, Volpe has come around to score seven times, adding three RBI to go with it.
Volpe should have no problem maintaining that standard against Frankie Montas and the Cincinnati Reds bullpen on Thursday. Montas gives up more hard contact than most pitchers, sitting in the 29th percentile with a 41.7% hard-hit rate. As expected, that’s contributing to an underwhelming 4.53 expected ERA and .416 expected slugging percentage.
As is the case with most young hitters, Volpe’s best efforts come in his friendly confines. The 23-year-old has an improved .399 slugging percentage and .727 OPS at Yankees Stadium, compared to his respective road benchmarks of .373 and .668. With no shortage of power behind him, we like Volpe’s run to continue with another monstrous performance against the Reds.
Bo Bichette ($4,200) vs. Houston Astros
We’re taking a contrarian angle with our last play, expecting Bo Bichette to reverse course on a recent downturn. Altogether, 2024 has been unkind to the Blue Jays shortstop, but nearly every indicator supports that greener pastures await Bichette on the horizon.
For starters, Bichette isn’t nearly as bad as his traditional stats imply. He’s operating below his expected slugging percentage by nearly 70 points and is 140 points off his career average. That anticipated progression is also reflected in his splits versus lefties. Throughout his career, Bichette has a tidy .498 slugging percentage off southpaws, significantly ahead of this year’s .193 standing.
Moreover, Bichette is just 4-for-27 since returning from injury at the end of June, giving him enough time to get up to game speed before Thursday’s battle against Framber Valdez and the Astros.
We’ve been waiting for Bichette to pop off since the start of the season, but we still have faith in the former second-round pick. He enters the early slate on favorable terms, with progression at the front of mind. Hopefully, Thursday’s performance is a sign of things to come from Bichette.
