The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Juan Yepez ($3,400): First Baseman, Washington Nationals
The 26-year-old joined the Nationals on July 5 after spending the first few months of the season back in the minors. Since the call-up, Juan Yepez has excelled at the plate for fantasy owners with a moderate price tag.
Yepez is batting .361/.407/.583 with two home runs and 14 RBI. He has a 37.1% sweet spot rate and 38.7 hard hit %. Over the last 10 games, Yepez has a +5.67 average Plus/Minus and seven double-digit DraftKings results over his last 12 games.
The Nationals face Arizona lefty Jordan Montgomery today in Phoenix. Montgomery has a winning record at 7-5 but an elevated 6.11 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Paul Skenes ($10,500) at Houston Astros
What an incredible start to a career for the rookie sensation Paul Skenes. The Pirates right-hander is 6-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through the first 12 starts of his career.
Skenes was allowed to pitch deeper into games so far in July with all three outings lasting at least seven innings. Amazingly, he has yet to allow more than three runs in a game and limits free base runners with a low 4.6 BB%.
Using Plate IQ, the Houston Astros projected lineup has a .156 ISO and .328 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Skenes raises his fantasy ceiling through his strong 34.2 K%, but faces a lineup tonight stingy in allowing high punch out marks. The Astros have a 21.2 K% against righties coming into the game.
Hitter
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,400) at Chicago White Sox
Bobby Witt Jr. is continuing his 2024 tear after the All-Star Break with a +3.37 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has a .543/.579/.886 batting line after the break with a pair of home runs and eight RBI.
He continues to rank in the top-5 of American League hitters with 144 hits, 85 runs scored, 29 doubles, and 10 triples. On the season, he is batting .341/.387/.585 with 18 home runs and 23 stolen bases.
The model pegs Witt Jr. with the highest ceiling potential on the main slate as the Royals open a series in Chicago. The White Sox will start Chris Flexen with his 2-10 record and 5.25 ERA. Fantasy owners should be excited about inserting Witt Jr. into lineups today.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Nick Pivetta ($8,500) vs. Seattle Mariners
The pitching options after Paul Skenes are wide open on the main slate. Nick Pivetta may have a 4-7 record in 2024, but the model likes him to produce positive fantasy results tonight against the Mariners.
Pivetta has a 4.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season in 16 starts. He allows a .425 xSLG and .312 wOBA with a respectable 29.5 K%. He looks to rebound today after allowing seven runs in his last outing against the Rockies on July 24.
The Mariners projected lineup has a .174 ISO and .324 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They strike out at a 27.4% clip with six high-strikeout batters in the order. The model likes Pivetta as a strong value play today.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Ketel Marte ($5,600) vs. Washington Nationals
The Diamondbacks land high up in the implied run totals tonight at home against the Nationals. Ketel Marte has been a bright spot this season in Arizona with a .296/.365/.535 batting line with 23 home runs and 68 RBI.
Marte is on pace for career highs with a 53.5 hard hit %, .536 xSLG, and 93.6 average exit velocity. He has three 20+ DraftKings point totals in his last five games, with three home runs and eight RBI in those outings.
The Diamondbacks will take on rookie left-hander Mitchell Parker tonight. Parker is 5-6 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He has struggled in July with a 9.18 ERA and 17 runs allowed in four starts.
Elly De La Cruz ($6,200) vs. Chicago Cubs
A human highlight reel, Elly De La Cruz continues to amaze at the plate and on the base paths. The Reds shortstop has already swiped nine bases after the All-Star Break with a +4.04 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
De la Cruz is batting .263/.352/.490 on the season with 18 home runs and 45 RBI. His speed creates ceiling potential on a nightly basis, but if he can improve on his elevated 30.8 K%, he could become an even bigger fantasy superstar.
Jameson Taillon gets the nod for the Cubs tonight with a 7-5 record and a strong 2.96 ERA. He is below a 20% strikeout rate this season but does limit extra baserunners with a 5.1 BB%.
