The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
David Villar ($2,000): First Baseman, San Francisco Giants
This 27-year-old first baseman got the call-up yesterday back to the major leagues for his second stint of the 2024 season. In seven total games with the Giants, David Villar is batting .286/.273/.571 with a long bomb and four RBI.
Villar is batting .271/.363/.494 in 68 minor league games this season with 14 home runs and 52 RBI. He has some pop at the plate with a 42.9 sweet spot % and went 1-4 yesterday with a double in his first game back up in San Francisco.
With a minimum DraftKings salary, Villar is an interesting lottery ticket play for all formats. The Giants face Rockies veteran Kyle Freeland with a 2-3 record and a 5.63 ERA this season.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Freddy Peralta ($9,800) vs. Miami Marlins
The veteran right-hander sits fourth in the National League with 138 strikeouts after finishing fifth last season in that category. Freddy Peralta is 6-5 for the Brewers on the season with a 3.88 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
Peralta’s fantasy upside revolves around his 30.4 K%. He is consistent with eight strikeouts in three of his last six starts but has only reached double-digit punch-outs twice on the season. He has a slight positive Plus/Minus on the season and the model expects some strikeout upside tonight against the Marlins.
Using Plate IQ, the Marlins projected lineup has a .139 ISO and .304 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a 22.2 K% and three high ISO and high wOBA hitters. Miami has an extremely low run projection but slightly elevated home run expectations.
Hitter
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,300) vs. Chicago Cubs
Leading the ceiling projections is Bobby Witt Jr., with a massive +4.55 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. Since the All-Star break, he is batting an incredible .696/.731/1.174 with two home runs and seven RBI in six games.
The Royals superstar leads the American League with 141 hits, 243 total bases, and 83 runs scored. He is batting .344/.390/.593 on the season with 18 home runs and 70 RBI. He adds value on the base paths with 23 stolen bases and has a strong 50.7 hard-hit hit %.
Witt Jr. and the Royals open a weekend series at home against the Cubs tonight. They have a great matchup against the struggling Kyle Hendricks, who is hoping to better his 2-8 record in the second half of the season. He has a 6.69 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Kyle Harrison ($6,900) vs. Colorado Rockies
Down the salary chart on the main slate is Kyle Harrison, who is an interesting value pick tonight against the Rockies. Harrison is 5-4 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 17 starts this season.
The fantasy upside is capped for Harrison with a 20.3 K% and an elevated 44.9 hard hit %. That said, the expectations are lower and easier to exceed. He has two straight positive Plus/Minus games with one run allowed in 10.1 innings over those two starts.
The matchup looks solid against the Rockies’ offense, with a low park rating from both sides of the plate and very low home run projection. That said, Colorado does have five high ISO and six high wOBA hitters in the projected lineup.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Lawrence Butler ($3,900) at Los Angeles Angels
Is that an Oakland Athletics sighting up high in the implied run totals? Yes, your eyes do not deceive you, and Lawrence Butler is a big reason for those lofty expectations.
The 24-year-old outfielder is raking since the All-Star break with a .556/.625/1.111 batting line and two home runs in 27 at-bats. He has an insane +13.75 average Plus/Minus over his last ten games and still features a salary under the $4,000 mark.
Butler is likely to come back down to earth toward his .257/.329/.500 season-long marks, but he’s worth a shot today to stay in the flames against Angels’ righty Carson Fulmer on a spot start. Fulmer is 0-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 26 appearances.
Juan Soto ($6,000) at Boston Red Sox
One of the newest Bronx Bombers, Juan Soto, is endearing himself to Yankees fans this season. He can take that a step further by producing against the rival Red Sox in Fenway Park this weekend.
Soto is near American League leaders in most offensive categories with a .311/.435/.599 batting line, 26 home runs, and 72 RBI on the season. He has a .439 wOBA, 57.9 hard hit %, and an insane 18% walk rate to add to his fantasy floor.
The Yankees travel to Boston to face righty Brayan Bello who has an impressive 10-5 record. His numbers are not shiny, with a 5.27 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The model expects Soto to keep crushing the ball tonight for fantasy success.
