The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Bryce Johnson ($2,100): Outfielder, San Diego Padres
Here at FantasyLabs, we’re constantly looking for our in-road into value territory, and Bryce Johnson is the latest oasis that has captured our attention. The San Diego Padres outfielder is just 36 at-bats into his season, but he could be on the verge of a breakout versus the Washington Nationals on Thursday.
Granted, Johnson’s actual stats are underwhelming at best, but there are a few indicators supporting renewed optimism over his coming schedule. First, the 28-year-old is operating well below expected levels. His batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage all deviate from anticipated levels. Moreover, he presents with a top-end sweet spot rating, launching balls with an ideal trajectory 38.5% of the time. However, Johnson has been limited by an ineffective hard-hit rate and diminished bat speed.
Working into big-league form with just a few plate appearances has put Johnson at a disadvantage, but he’s garnered enough looks to start seeing an increase in his underlying metrics. We saw the tip of the iceberg in Wednesday’s tilt versus the Nats, and Johnson should have no problem building off that momentum on in today’s series finale.
Our projections put Johnson near the front of the pack in terms of value. His $2,100 salary, combined with low roster percentage and mid-level ceiling, make him one of the top performers in Projected Plus/Minus. We’re expecting him to reach the upper limits of his ceiling in Thursday’s matinee, earning the distinction as the top value play on the board.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Max Scherzer ($8,600) vs. Chicago White Sox
What kind of world do we live in when Max Scherzer commands just an $8,600 salary against one of the worst teams in the majors? The three-time Cy Young winner is the ideal buy-low candidate on Thursday’s main slate and should have no problem reaching the upper echelon of his projections against the lowly Chicago White Sox.
Some of the discount comes from Scherzer’s most recent outing versus the Baltimore Orioles. In that contest, the imposing righty lasted just 2.0 innings while giving up four earned runs on five hits en route to his third straight loss. Still, that was a different Scherzer than we’ve seen in recent outings.
Prior to his latest debacle, Scherzer was trending positively with his efforts. The 39-year-old had given up nine earned runs across 27.1 innings pitched, striking out 23 and allowing 27 base runners. His unrelenting success is also reflected in his underlying metrics, placing him well ahead of the MLB norm. Although he’s been limited, Scherzer’s expected ERA, chase rate, and hard-hit rate all come in on the elite end of the spectrum. Similarly, his barrel percentage, walk rate, and average exit velocity are grounded among the best in the game.
This might be the lowest salary we see on Scherzer for the rest of the year. His line of best fit has him pointed upward, and he gets to pick on the weakest of American League opponents. Scherzer leads our median and ceiling projections for a reason, and everyone will find out why early on Thursday.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($6,100) vs. Detroit Tigers
The Cleveland Guardians have asserted themselves as the class of the AL Central, thanks in part to the resurgent effort from Jose Ramirez. The switch-hitting All-Star leads the Guardians into today’s series finale versus the Detroit Tigers, projected as the pre-eminent fantasy performer on the slate.
That distinction as the best batter available is well-earned. Ramirez has been a productive fantasy option after the Mid-Summer Classic. Already, he has three multi-hit efforts, totaling seven hits, two extra-base knocks, two runs, and five RBI in six contests, and he should have no problem maintaining that standard versus Kenta Maeda.
The Tigers righty has been serving up meatballs for opposing batters all season, giving up a disastrous 7.07 ERA, thanks to his ineffective 9.1% barrel rate and .459 expected slugging percentage. That plays into Ramirez’s strengths as a left-handed batter, accounting for 15 of his 24 homers and 26 of his 46 extra-base hits.
Ramirez’s fantasy production has improved after the break, hitting double-digit fantasy points in three of his last six outings. We’re anticipating another resounding effort from the Guardians third baseman against the Tigers, encountering little resistance en route to a slate-best performance.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Chris Bassitt ($7,600) vs. Chicago White Sox
Toronto Blue Jays starting pitchers have earned an undeserved reputation this season. Collectively, they have more losses than all but five teams, but their lackluster record is incompatible with their underlying metrics. Chris Bassitt is one of those pitchers we’re watching closely and primed for a bounce-back effort against the Tampa Bay Rays.
A cooling-off period was inevitable after a scorching June. Bassitt was sensational last month, going 2-0 with a sterling 1.95 ERA; however, he’s faced choppier waters in July. Through his first three starts, Bassitt is toting an inflated 6.48 ERA and 1.74 WHIP, not surprisingly yielding a 1-2 record. But the Jays righty will be right at home in Thursday’s AL East showdown.
In two seasons with the Blue Jays, the former All-Star has excelled at Rogers Centre. Bassitt is 13-9 at home over the past two campaigns, with a 3.33 ERA and an 8.6 K/9 rate, both above his two-year rolling average. Further, he gets to pick on an underperforming Rays side that has a .670 OPS and 56 strikeouts in six games after the All-Star Break.
Bassitt is an ideal progression candidate, facing ideal circumstances on Thursday. His salary doesn’t reflect it, but he has one of the top ceilings on the board, making him our preferred value-pitching candidate on the early slate.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Xander Bogaerts ($4,000) vs. Washington Nationals
Surely, the San Diego Padres are grateful to have Xander Bogaerts back in the lineup. Prior to landing on the injured list back in May, Bogaerts had failed to live up to his usual lofty standards. But the 31-year-old has rediscovered his Silver Slugger form since returning to the lineup, consistently mashing the ball for San Diego.
We’re working with a small, if not impressive, sample size with Bogaerts. In seven games since returning from a shoulder injury, the four-time All-Star has a grandiose .983 OPS, recording multi-hit efforts in all but one of those contests. Although it hasn’t yielded the type of run production we would typically expect, it has earned Bogaerts a promotion to the top of the batting order. Last night’s four-hit, two-run effort is foreshadowing what to expect from the Padres second baseman over the latter part of the campaign.
Bogaerts has a natural advantage over southpaw Patrick Corbin. Throughout his career, the right-handed batting Bogaerts has a .471 slugging percentage off lefties, above his career average of .451. That’s without even considering Corbin’s dumpster-worthy analytics profile, placing him in the first percentile in expected ERA and expected batting average.
The Padres will thrive versus the Nationals, and Bogaerts will be leading the charge. Include him on any roster or format as Bogaerts continues his elite play on Thursday.
Marcus Semien ($4,700) vs. Chicago White Sox
A four-game winning streak has elevated the Texas Rangers back into the AL playoff race, and they have Marcus Semien to thank. The Rangers leadoff man has been on another level lately and could ratchet his fantasy value even higher in Thursday’s conclusion versus the White Sox.
Semien has recaptured the form that made him an AL MVP finalist in two of the last three seasons. The two-time Silver Slugger has a .865 OPS in the month of July, with his best efforts coming after the break. Across his previous nine outings, the Rangers second baseman has an MVP-esque 1.037 OPS, accounting for five runs scored and two RBI. More impressively, his power stroke at the plate is the only reason he’s driven in runs, with both of his RBI coming off solo home run shots.
Jonathan Cannon doesn’t possess the arsenal to slow Semien down. The White Sox righty has given up eight runs and 15 hits across his last two starts, playing into Semien’s recent hot streak.
Waves collide as scorching Semien crashes against combustible Cannon. Semien and the Rangers will get the better of their counterparts on Thursday, a fact that is reflected across our projections.
