The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Max Schuemann ($2,500): Shortstop, Oakland Athletics
This 27-year-old rookie shortstop has come out on all cylinders after the All-Star Break with three straight positive Plus/Minus games and a massive 32-point DraftKings performance on Friday against the Angels.
Max Schuemann got the call-up on April 12 after starting the first week of 2024 in the minors. The veteran minor leaguer is batting .254/.351/.375 in his first big league season with six home runs and 25 RBI. He raises his floor a bit with a high walk rate, but his .218 xBA is a concern.
The Athletics continue their home stand against the Astros and right-hander Spencer Arrighetti. He has struggled to a 4-7 mark with a 5.63 ERA and 1.60 WHIP through 17 starts. The model likes Schuemann to continue his hot streak in a good pitching matchup.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Hunter Greene ($8,200) at Atlanta Braves
With the sixth-highest salary on the main slate, Reds hurler Hunter Greene leads the ceiling projections today in Atlanta. He allowed just one run total in his last two starts before the All-Star Break and tallied 17 strikeouts.
This season, Greene is 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He sits third in the National League with a .200 batting average against and seventh with 126 strikeouts. He allows an impressive .194 xBA and .318 xSLG.
Using Plate IQ, the Braves projected lineup has a .155 ISO and .290 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a high 25.6 K%, but also a high home run projection tonight with moderate park ratings from both sides of the plate.
Hitter
Rafael Devers ($6,300) at Colorado Rockies
It takes a lot to unseat Shohei Ohtani from the top of the ceiling projections. Even with a trip to Colorado, Rafael Devers couldn’t quite overtake Ohtani but sits just behind him with a slightly lower price tag.
Devers continues to produce for fantasy owners with a .287/.372/.580 batting line on the season to go with 23 home runs, 61 RBI, and 62 runs scored. He did have just one hit in his first series after the break, but is primed for an offensive explosion in the mountains tonight with one of the highest average exit velocities in the league.
The Rockies will feature Austin Gomber on the mound with a 2-6 record in 18 starts, though his 4.61 ERA and 1.30 WHIP are better than his record may indicate. Surprisingly, Gomber is actually better at Coors Field, with a 1-1 record and a 3.54 ERA in eight home starts.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Cole Ragans ($9,000) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Royals got an excellent first-half performance from Cole Ragans with a 3.16 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, although they probably hoped he would have better than a 6-6 record. Ragans will kick off his second half tonight against the Diamondbacks.
Ragans ranks second in the American League with 141 strikeouts and can make batters look silly even without an overpowering fastball. He has produced a +0.88 average Plus/Minus on the season with two straight 22+ DraftKings point outings.
The Diamondbacks projected lineup does have a low 17.9 K% against left-handers on the season. They have two high ISO and four high wOBA hitters in the lineup tonight.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Jarren Duran ($6,100) at Colorado Rockies
It’s hard to ignore the Red Sox lineup today with by far the highest implied run total on the main slate as they kick off their series in Colorado. Jarren Duran has lit it up at the plate during the summer months with a .364/.420/.636 batting line in June and a .303/.347/.545 line so far in July.
Duran continues to pace the American League with 30 doubles and 10 triples on the season. He is fourth with 22 stolen bases and sixth with 67 runs scored. He can score fantasy points in a multitude of ways and has three straight multi-hit games.
Austin Gomber gets the nod for the Rockies with a 2-6 record. All systems go for the Red Sox offense tonight in fantasy lineups.
Marcus Semien ($4,700) vs. Chicago White Sox
Marcus Semien is one of the top model picks not playing in Coors Field tonight. The veteran second baseman is starting to heat up a bit in July after a first half of the season that did not quite live up to expectations.
On the year, Semien is batting .241/.314/.391 with 13 home runs and 51 RBI, well below his 2023 numbers. So far in July, he has swatted .283/.397/.434 with a couple of home runs and seven RBI. He has a +0.57 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
The Rangers open a series against the White Sox and right-hander Erick Fedde. The 31-year-old right-hander had an excellent first half of the season with a surprising 7-3 record and 2.99 ERA. He was 6-13 with a 5.81 ERA last season.
