The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Justyn-Henry Malloy ($2,600): Outfielder, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers rookie outfielder went into the break with a four-game hit streak and a +1.77 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has four 14+ DraftKings point games over that span.
Justyn-Henry Malloy is batting .219/.309/.417 in 33 games since being called up on June 3. He has five home runs and 11 RBI with a 33.9 hard hit %. If he can find a way to limit his high 34.5% strikeout rate, Malloy has the potential to improve his fantasy outcomes.
Today, the Tigers face Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt. He finished 8-7 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP before the All-Star break.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Hunter Brown ($8,400) at Seattle Mariners
The main slate is crowded with solid pitching options in the same salary tier. Twelve starters landed between $8,100 and $9,500 on today’s salary chart, and the model picked Hunter Brown as the best ceiling option out of the bunch.
Brown is 7-6 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through 18 starts. He allows a low 31.8 hard hit % and 29.9 sweet spot %. He has a +0.43 average Plus/Minus on the season.
Using Plate IQ, the Mariners have a .128 ISO and .266 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Their projected lineup has a sky-high 36.2 K% with only one High wOBA hitter. The model sees a lot of potential for Brown to exceed his normal strikeout numbers.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) vs. Boston Red Sox
On a full main slate, Shohei Ohtani leads the ceiling projections after an insane first half of 2024. The new Dodgers superstar posted an incredible .316/.400/.635 batting line before the break.
Ohtani is near triple crown territory as he leads the National League with 29 home runs, sits third with 69 RBI, and trails just Christian Yelich in batting average. If that’s not impressive enough, he is tied for third with 23 stolen bases to boost his fantasy ceiling to meteoric levels.
The Dodgers kick off their second half at home against Boston and Nick Pivetta. The Red Sox right-hander is 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The model loves Ohtani to continue his historic campaign tonight.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Luis Castillo ($8,200) vs. Houston Astros
It’s been an up-and-down season thus far for Luis Castillo, with an 8-9 record and a 3.53 ERA. A workhorse for the Astros, Castillo is seventh in the American League in innings pitched and 11th with 116 strikeouts despite a moderate 24.2 K%.
Castillo is 5-3 at home this season with a 2.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He has allowed one total run over his last two starts, with 23+ DraftKings points in each.
The Astros’ strength is putting the ball in play, with a 21.1 K% in their projected lineup. They have a .151 ISO and .327 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Jorge Soler ($5,000) at Colorado Rockies
The Giants have one of the highest implied run totals on the slate today as they get the Colorado boost after the break. Jorge Soler leads the projections for San Francisco despite a lackluster first half of 2024.
After launching 36 home runs last season, Soler’s power numbers have been depressed with 10 long bombs through 82 games. He is batting .225/.305/.397 with 33 RBI and 47 runs scored.
Cal Quantrill gets the nod for Colorado tonight. He was 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.35 WHIP overall before the break, with a 2-3 mark and 4.00 at Coors Field.
Ezequiel Tovar ($4,500) vs. San Francisco Giants
Ezequiel Tovar is another model pick in the opposite dugout. In his last game before the All-Star break, Tovar exploded for 39 DraftKings points with two home runs, a double, and four RBI.
On the season, Tovar is batting .274/.302/.462 with 14 home runs and 42 RBI. He sits fourth in the National League with 108 hits and second with 38 doubles.
The Giants trot out 22-year-old Kyle Harrison tonight with a 5-4 record and a 4.08 ERA. He allows an elevated 44.9 hard hit % and 90.7 average exit velocity. The model expects fireworks in Denver tonight, and Tovar is a prime candidate for a fantasy boost.
