The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Xavier Edwards ($2,300): Shortstop, Miami Marlins
It’s been nearly two weeks since Xavier Edwards made his triumphant return to the Miami Marlins lineup, and early returns have been promising. The highly-touted shortstop has a catalyst at the bottom of the order but still has a discounted salary. That imbalance makes him one of the top value players on tonight’s main slate.
Since returning to the lineup on July 2, Edwards has hits in all but one of his eight outings. Altogether, he’s totaled 10 hits, two doubles, two RBI, and three runs scored, making him one of the most consistent producers in Miami. More importantly, that production is coming from a very sustainable place.
Edwards has an appealing analytics profile. He makes more sweet spot contact than nearly any other batter in the MLB, making optimal contact 43.8% of the time. Moreover, the 24-year-old flaunts above-average speed and plate discipline beyond his years, resulting in one of the purest contact profiles in the game.
Inevitably, Edwards will be a cornerstone of the Marlins lineup for years to come; however, his salary will eventually increase to reflect his solid contributions. For now, you can roster the Marlins shortstop at a generous $2,300 salary and expect him to deliver more fantasy production than you’re paying for.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Tanner Houck ($9,500) vs. Oakland Athletics
A home matchup against the lowly Oakland Athletics is exactly what’s needed to shake Tanner Houck out of his recent funk. Granted, he only allowed one earned run in his last start against the New York Yankees, but the Boston Red Sox pitcher lasted just 3.1 innings, gave up three runs altogether, and struggled with command, issuing four free passes. But he faces a much more forgiving A’s side on Thursday night.
Despite the recent setbacks, Houck still has a top-end analytics profile. His above-average expected ERA and strikeout rate are complemented by sterling underlying metrics. The Missouri native excels at getting batters to chase his pitches outside the zone, posting a 32.8% chase rate and ranking in the 87th percentile. Likewise, batters can’t get solid contact off any of Houck’s offerings, barreling the ball just 5.7% of the time, good enough to land Houck in the 80th percentile.
That’s without considering the Athletics lineup, which remains one of the worst in the majors. So far this season, Oakland has recorded the second-most strikeouts and seventh-worst OPS. The Athletics have adopted a more free-swinging approach lately, which will be their undoing versus Houck. The AL West basement dwellers have struck out 56 times over the last five games, putting them at a significant disadvantage on Thursday.
After a string of lackluster outings, Houck’s primed for a bounce-back effort on Thursday. He leads our median and ceiling projections, making him our preferred pitcher on the main slate.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Every once in a while, it’s worth dipping your toes in the Shohei Ohtani waters, and tonight is one of those nights. The Los Angeles Dodgers are looking to salvage their series against the Philadelphia Phillies, hoping to steal at least one win before they head into their weekend set versus the Detroit Tigers. Thankfully, they can count on Ohtani to do his part on offense.
Analytically, no one stacks up against Ohtani. The Los Angeles Dodgers slugger ranks in the 100th percentile in barrel rate and hard-hit rates, expected batting average, and slugging percentage. As we’ve seen over the past few seasons, Ohtani has translated that into MVP-worthy on-field results.
That’s been especially true since the calendars flipped to June. The four-time All-Star has increased his slugging percentage to .682 over that stretch, but his season-long benchmark of .635 remains below the expected level of .664. That suggests that we are in the thick of an Ohtani correction phase, and the upward trajectory should continue against the Phillies.
Virtually every day, Ohtani is priced above the rest of the available batters, but as we are seeing, he’s worth the investment. A fact that is also reflected in his elite PlateIQ profile. That’s the case again on Thursday as he leads the Dodgers into the series finale at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Brandon Pfaadt ($7,300) vs. Atlanta Braves
It’s not too late to hop on the Brandon Pfaadt train. The Arizona Diamondbacks righty has been on a heater lately, posting elite metrics over the past month. Pfaadt’s traditional stats remain above expected, implying that his run will continue with another strong showing against the Atlanta Braves.
Pfaadt only lasted 4.1 innings last time out, but he flashed his strikeout excellence, sitting down six San Diego Padres in limited action. That’s in addition to the eight batters he struck out in his previous outing, a quality start in which he gave up just one earned run in 6.0 innings, with eight punchouts. Moreover, that was his third quality start across four starts, punctuating his recent efforts.
Pfaadt’s analytics profile suggests that he’s due for ongoing success from the bump. The 25-year-old has a 3.51 expected ERA, nice enough for the 69th percentile. Likewise, he ranks in the 60th percentile in chase rate and 62nd percentile in barrel rate, highlighting his potential to strike batters out without giving up hard contact.
The Atlanta Braves aren’t the same team without Ronald Acuna Jr. in the lineup. Over the last two weeks, they’ve accumulated the eighth-worst OPS and third-most strikeouts, complicating their outlook moving forward. In the short-term, the Braves are in tough against a thriving pitcher, making Pfaadt the best value arm on the board tonight.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Julio Rodriguez ($5,100) vs. Los Angeles Angels
For months, we’ve been waiting for Julio Rodriguez to break out, and we’re starting to see signs of that in advance of the annual All-Star Game. The Seattle Mariners centerfielder should have no problem maintaining his top-end performance vs. the Los Angeles Angels on tonight’s main slate.
J-Rod is one game removed from a four-hit performance, but it’s his power stroke that has us excited about his prospects moving forward. Four of Rodriguez’s last eight hits have gone for extra bases, including two homers and two doubles. That has brought his season-long slugging percentage up to .350, which is still a significant departure from the expected benchmark of .454.
As expected his increased productivity at the plate correlates with improved run production. Rodriguez has accounted for nine runs since the start of the month, scoring six and driving in three.
Surely, J-Rod will be part of the welcoming committee that introduces Jack Kochanowicz to major league life. Rodriguez has spearheaded the M’s recent ascent, which has seen the AL West leaders total 27 runs over their past six games. You’ll find Rodriguez planted near the top of our projections, and we expect him to reach his ceiling against the Halos.
Yandy Diaz ($4,100) vs. New York Yankees
A tepid start to the season has sunk Yandy Diaz’s chances of matching last year’s gaudy totals. But if we sharpen our lens to his more recent sample, there’s been no better leadoff man in all of baseball. The Tampa Bay Rays first baseman can prove his worth again in tonight’s intra-divisional battle versus the New York Yankees.
At the end of May, Diaz had a lackluster .661 OPS, unbecoming of a leadoff man. But he’s turned a corner since then, totaling a .819 mark in June, punctuated by a 20-game hitting streak that came to an end on June 29. After a cooling-off period, we’ve seen Diaz return to his scorching ways.
Heading into tonight’s tilt, the reigning Silver Slugger is riding a more modest four-game hitting streak. Across that small sample, Diaz has tallied six hits, one double, and one home run, translating to two runs scored and four RBI. He’s expected to add to those totals against southpaw Nestor Cortes.
As expected, the right-handed batting Diaz reserves his best efforts for lefties. His OPS jumps from .676 versus righties to .842 against southpaws, accounting for nine of his 26 extra-base hits in just 88 at-bats.
Given Cortes’ 45.1% hard-hit rate and 7.9% barrel rate, Diaz can be expected to continue his recent assault. We’re betting he and the Rays head into the weekend on a high note, getting to the Yankees starter in the series finale.
