The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Joey Loperfido ($2,400): Outfielder, Toronto Blue Jays
Despite entering Thursday’s tilt against the Baltimore Orioles without a hit in his last two games, Joey Loperfido’s tenure as a Toronto Blue Jay got off to a promising start. The young outfielder recorded hits in his first three games with the Jays, including a triple against the New York Yankees over the weekend. Loperfido will have a chance to build off those recent performances in the series finale at the Rogers Centre.
Loperfido has been insulated in the Jays’ lineup, sandwiched in the two-spot between sluggers George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. That’s afforded him some good pitches to look at, which he has been making the most of.
Although he doesn’t deliver a ton of hard-hit balls, Loperfido has been making optimal contact with the ball. His 46.1% sweet spot rating rates among the best in the majors, reflecting a primo swing path and bat speed.
Moreover, Loperfido excels against fastballs, which Dean Kremer relies on heavily. He throws his four-seamer over 33.0% of the time, mixing in variations with his cutter and sinker.
There aren’t too many batters at the top of the order that you can roster for $2,400, but Loperfido fits the bill. Combined with his promising start and ideal swing, that makes him our top value play on tonight’s main slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Bryan Woo ($9,000) vs. Detroit Tigers
There’s an inherent advantage in rostering any Seattle Mariners pitchers when they’re throwing at home, but that advantage is even more pronounced with Bryan Woo toeing the rubber tonight. The hard-throwing righty has been dazzling of late and should be moving down Detroit Tigers all night.
Woo’s been on some kind of heater. The former sixth-round pick hasn’t allowed a run over his last 11.0 innings pitched, giving up just six runs in four starts since returning to the rotation in the middle of July. Across the four-start stretch, Woo has struck out 15 over 30 innings while limiting opponents to 22 hits and just four walks. Not surprisingly, his analytics profile supports that Woo is walking a sustainable path.
The 24-year-old has been sensational every time he takes to the mound. Woo sits in the 99th percentile in expected ERA, thanks to his elite underlying metrics. His 2.2% barrel rate and 2.6% walk rate are both good enough for the 99th percentile, while he sits above the 80th percentile in hard-hit rate, expected batting average, and slugging percentage.
It’s clear that Woo’s profile is tailor-made for the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. He’s toting around an inconceivable 0.95 ERA at home this season, dragging his season-long ERA down to 2.08. We’re not expecting any of those metrics to climb against a Tigers side that continues to rate as one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors.
Deservingly, you’ll find Woo atop our median and ceiling projections, earning the distinction as the top arm available on the main slate.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,700) vs. Los Angeles Angels
It’s time to say this out loud — Aaron Judge is approaching Barry Bonds territory. The New York Yankees slugger has a scorching 1.157 OPS this season, reflecting his superb .698 slugging percentage and .459 OBP. As good as Tyler Anderson has looked lately, he will be no match for Judge on Thursday night.
There are a few factors at play, but we have to start with Judge’s MVP analytics profile. The three-time Silver slugger ranks as the best hitter in several categories, including expected slugging percentage, expected weighted on-base average, expected slugging percentage, and hard-hit rate. Further, he reserves his best efforts for soft-throwing left-handers.
In 120 plate appearances versus southpaws, Judge has a mind-numbing .508 OBP, driving his OPS up to 1.167. But somehow, the former MVP has ratcheted those numbers even higher over his more recent sample.
Since the start of August, Judge has an incredible 1.641 OPS. He’s totaled eight hits in five games, with three multi-hit efforts and two home runs. That extends his run of good play from the end of last month, in which he swatted four dingers over the final six games of July.
It’s all academic at this point. Every time Judge steps into the batter’s box, he’s a threat to send some lucky fan home with a souvenir. We’re betting he carries that hot streak into Thursday’s encounter against Anderson, living up to his potential as the best hitter available.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Marcus Stroman ($7,400) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Count Marcus Stroman as another New York Yankee that we expect to reach his full potential on the main slate. The two-time All-Star may be coming off one of his worst starts of the season, but that has disrupted an otherwise impressive streak that Stroman should resume against the Halos.
Prior to his most recent shellacking, Stroman had been trending in a positive direction. The former first-round pick hadn’t given up more than three runs in any of his previous three starts, totaling just six earned runs against tough AL East opponents. Thankfully, he’ll have a much easier time navigating a feckless Angels team.
We know who the Los Angeles Angels are. They remain one of the worst-hitting teams in the MLB, ranking sixth-last in OPS and fifth-last in runs. We shouldn’t be surprised, but the Angels have found a way to lower the bar over their recent schedule, with their run production taking a hit over the past week. They’ve seen a decrease in their OPS, precipitating fewer runs per game.
Stroman needs a matchup like this to get back on track, and the DFS stars aligned as he takes to the rubber for the series finale on Thursday. His salary doesn’t reflect his ceiling, making Stroman and his $7,400 salary the perfect complement to Judge.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Josh Lowe ($3,800) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The top of our projections are littered with the best the AL East has to offer. While it may be tempting to roster any number of Yankees, Blue Jays, or Orioles, DFS punters will be pleased to see what Josh Lowe has to offer.
The Tampa Bay Rays outfielder has been one of the hottest hitters in the majors this week. Lowe has a 1.319 OPS, correlating with improved run production. Four of his six hits have gone for extra bags, resulting in four runs and three RBI. Still operating below his expected slugging percentage, Lowe isn’t done with his hot streak yet.
Since the Rays traded away Isaac Paredes, Lowe has been the presumptive clean-up man in the Rays lineup. As we’re seeing, he’s not disappointing. We’re betting on the left-handed batting slugger to deliver another top-notch performance against righty Kyle Gibson, helping the Rays salvage the finale of their inter-league set versus the Cardinals.
Brandon Lowe ($4,600) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Rays’ love doesn’t end there, as there’s another left-handed bat to target at the top of the batting order, with just as much promise. Brandon Lowe has also been swinging a hot bat lately, posting an All-Star-worthy 1.042 OPS over the past two weeks. Like Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe has an inherent advantage over Gibson, with an even more appealing fantasy profile.
Lowe is doing it all right now. The Rays second baseman has 16 hits over his last 12 games, with eight extra-base hits, six runs, 11 RBI, and two stolen bases. Still, there’s more room to grow relative to his underlying metrics. Lowe’s season-long slugging and on-base percentages remain below his expected, implying his upward trajectory will continue.
As a team, the Rays are due for a breakout, and we expect both Lowes to lead the charge. Tampa Bay’s OPS has climbed over the past week, with their runs per game going in the opposite direction. That imbalance suggests that the floodgates will eventually open, and we’re expecting the surge to start on Thursday night.
Lowe will continue to be a driving force and an ideal second baseman to target on the main slate.
