The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Javier Baez ($2,400): Shortstop, Detroit Tigers
The best offensive years for Javier Baez are well behind him, but he is an interesting value play at this price level for the Tigers. Over his last 10 games, Baez has a +3.78 average Plus/Minus with three home runs coming in three straight games from July 25-27.
His season-long numbers do not inspire optimism with a .181/.220/.276 batting line to go with four home runs and 33 RBI in 71 games. His 2018 campaign with 34 home runs and 111 RBI is far in the rearview mirror, but he can still outperform the low expectations of his salary threshold.
Baez and the Tigers take on Mariners right-hander George Kirby tonight. Kirby is 8-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Tarik Skubal ($10,100) at Seattle Mariners
What an incredible season for the 27-year-old Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. At 12-4, he leads the American League with a 2.57 ERA and 162 strikeouts. He returns to Seattle tonight, where he played college baseball for the Seattle University Redhawks.
Amazingly, Skubal allowed a league-high 35 home runs in 2021 before finding his groove over the last couple of seasons. He allows an incredible 0.95 WHIP to go with a 2.81 xERA, .265 xwOBA, and 29.9 K%.
Using Plate IQ, the Mariners have a .153 ISO and .312 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have a strikingly low run projection in a pitcher’s park with low park ratings from both sides of the plate. Skubal will have lots of fantasy attention on him tonight.
Hitter
Pete Alonso ($5,600) at Colorado Rockies
The Mets get the Colorado boost today in game two of a midweek series. The power of Pete Alonso gives fantasy owners a lot of point-scoring potential in the elevation of Coors Field.
Overall, Alonso is batting .242/.328/.463 with 23 home runs and 59 RBI. He sits ninth in the National League with 26 doubles to go with a 42.5 hard hit % and 20.9 sweet spot %. Since the All-Star break, he has improved production to a .250/.377/.516 mark with four long bombs.
Expect a lot of attention on the Mets offense against Ryan Feltner and his 1-10 record. The Rockies right-hander has a 4.97 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He has allowed the fourth-most hits in the National League.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
George Kirby ($8,800) vs. Detroit Tigers
A pitcher’s duel is expected in Seattle tonight with Tarik Skubal and George Kirby. T-Mobile Park continues to be one of the most difficult hitters parks in the league with low park ratings from both sides of the plate.
Kirby is 8-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 23 starts. He has a +0.55 average Plus/Minus on the season allowing a .237 xERA, .266 wOBA, and 35.5 hard hit %.
The Tigers have an incredibly low run projection with two high wOBA and three high ISO hitters in the lineup. Kirby limits free base runners with an extremely low 2.8 BB%, and Detroit strikes out at a 25.6% clip.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Francisco Lindor ($6,100) at Colorado Rockies
The Mets earn top billing on the implied run totals on today’s main slate with a premium matchup against Ryan Feltner at Coors Field.
Francisco Lindor is the highest-rated Mets hitter tonight despite a recent lack of production. He has a -3.12 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He does have two 30+ DraftKings point games since the All-Star break with five home runs and 12 RBI in that span.
Overall, Lindor is batting .253/.329/.455 with 22 home runs and 64 RBI. He ranks sixth in the National League with 23 stolen bases and 74 runs scored.
Teoscar Hernandez ($4,500) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Teoscar Hernandez is en route to the best season totals of his career with a .269/.333/.501 batting line. He is fourth in the National League with 25 home runs, sixth with 74 RBI, and fifth with 216 total bases.
Hernandez has a +3.21 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with five 16+ DraftKings point totals in that span. He has a 47.0 hard hit % with a 91.1 average exit velocity.
Rookie right-hander Tyler Phillips gets the nod for the Phillies for his fifth big league start. He is 3-1 with a 4.39 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through his first five appearances. The model expects a big night from Hernandez.
