The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Tyrone Taylor ($3,000): Outfielder, New York Mets
The New York Mets sure have come a long way. Down and out through the first few months of the season, the Mets have clawed their way back into the NL playoff picture thanks in large part to their solid supporting cast. Over the past month, Tyrone Taylor has been a significant part of their success and we like him to maintain that standard in Tuesday’s battle versus the Colorado Rockies.
A staple in the bottom half of the Mets’ batting order, Taylor occasionally gets promoted to the top of the lineup, as he did in last night’s 6-0 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. The former second-round pick was responsible for half of those runs, driving in three with a fifth-inning double. That reinvigorated his batting metrics, which have declined slightly since the calendars flipped to August.
However, extending our lens further back reveals a promising outlook for the Mets outfielder. Since the start of July, Taylor is slugging .458, with nine of his 18 hits going for extra bases. Included in that sample are five doubles, two triples, and two long fly balls, highlighting his ability to maximize output on the basepaths. Predictably, those hitting metrics correlate with improved run production, with Taylor scoring 13 times with 5 RBI coming over his last 11 games.
Hits have come in bunches for Taylor during his hot streak. He has four multi-hit efforts across the same 11-game sample, making him an all-or-nothing kind of fantasy contributor. We’re expecting more of the former at hitter-friendly Coors Field as the Mets continue their ascent up the NL standings. Taylor should have no problem reaching the upper echelon of his projections, and with only a $3,000 salary, that makes him the top value on tonight’s main slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Luis Castillo ($8,200) vs. Detroit Tigers
Early-season struggles de-railed Luis Castillo from the Cy Young conversation, but the Seattle Mariners stalwart has re-entered the conversation with his more recent efforts. Touting a sparkling 1.99 ERA across his past five starts, Castillo has become a fantasy boon for DFS punters over the past month.
Castillo’s return to form was an inevitability. The sinker-ball pitcher has thrived since joining the M’s in 2022, posting a 27-21 record with a 3.34 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while maintaining his 9.6 K/9 rate. Those metrics are nearly back in order following a torrid July in which he posted a 3-1 record, 1.99 ERA, and 0.98 WHIP. Still, his season-long metrics are above average, implying further correction is anticipated.
Fantasy bettors should expect those numbers to continue to plummet on Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers. Since the trade deadline, the Tigers have been one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors. Their collective .600 is the third worst, resulting in the fewest runs over that stretch. Now, they head into the pitching-friendly confines of T-Mobile against one of the hottest arms in the MLB.
Not surprisingly, home field has been quite the advantage for Castillo this year. The three-time All-Star has a 2.82 ERA with 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts, punching out 9.3 batters every nine innings. Surely, those metrics will look even better when he gets through a toothless Tigers side.
Hitter
Francisco Lindor ($5,900) vs. Colorado Rockies
We are adding to our Mets stack, shedding light on Francisco Lindor as the preeminent fantasy prospect worth rostering on Tuesday night. On top of having one of the most attractive analytics profiles in the game, the Mets shortstop has the added advantage of playing in Denver against one of the worst pitchers in the bigs. That’s a recipe for success for fantasy managers looking to cash in on the main slate.
He doesn’t get credit for it like he used to, but Lindor is one of the best hitters in the league. His .789 OPS has dipped slightly from last year’s benchmark of .806, but he’s brought those numbers up more recently. In July, the three-time Silver Slugger posted an MVP-esque .941 OPS, swatting nine homers, driving in 23, and coming around to score 18 more. Still, he’s operating below his expected slugging percentage and OPB, suggesting Lindor’s hot streak hasn’t come to an end yet.
That looks even more true when we stack Lindor and the Mets up against Kyle Freeland at Coors Field. The Rockies southpaw sits in the ninth percentile in expected ERA and in the bottom 5% of pitchers in expected slugging percentage. Consequently, Freeland has translated those metrics to a 5.64 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 1.4 HR/9.
Lindor and the Mets rate highly across our projections, but Lindor’s most outstanding distinction is leading our ceiling projections. We suspect he ends the night as one of the top performing fantasy producers on the main slate.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($8,000) vs. Chicago Cubs
Pablo Lopez has one of the highest ceilings over the latter part of the campaign, and that’s reflected in our Tuesday night projections. The Minnesota Twins ace is operating substantially above expected this season and should see his traditional stats plummet with sustained analytics success.
Lopez hasn’t been nearly as bad as his 4.65 ERA suggests. The former All-Star ranks on the top end of the spectrum in several noteworthy advanced metrics, including expected ERA, chase rate, and strikeout percentage. His 3.43 expected ERA puts Lopez in the 72nd percentile, while he ranks in the 82nd percentile in getting batters to chase balls outside the zone an 84th percentile in strikeout percentage.
More importantly, we’ve seen the best Lopez has to offer over his recent schedule. The hard-throwing righty comes into tonight’s inter-league affair versus the Chicago Cubs on the heels of three straight quality starts. Over that modest sample, Lopez has allowed just five runs over 20.0 innings pitched for a 2.25 ERA. Improved scoring efficiency hasn’t come at the expense of his strikeout metrics, with Lopez punching out seven batters in all three contests.
With the winds expected to blow in from center field at Wrigley tonight, Lopez is poised to continue his hot streak. While his salary doesn’t reflect his potential, the Twins ace leads our ceiling projections, earning the distinction of top value and highest ceiling on the main slate.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
George Springer ($4,400) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays may be outside of the playoff picture, but that doesn’t mean they’ve called it quits on the season. Although they’re just 5-5 over their past 10, the Blue Jays have put their best foot forward over the last two weeks. Led by George Springer, we’re expecting another resounding effort from them against the Baltimore Orioles in a crucial AL East showdown.
Springer is having a down year, but he’s turned a corner over the past month. The two-time Silver Slugger posted a renewed .848 OPS in July, with 11 of his 26 hits going for extra bases. Combined with his base running prowess, stealing five bases, Springer put himself in a position to score 18 times and drive in 16 more.
It’s been a more tepid start to August, but the Jays outfielder should spring back to life shortly. Springer continues to operate well below expected levels, falling nearly 50 points below his expected slugging percentage and 23 points beneath his expected weighted on-base average.
After being demoted earlier in the season, Springer has seemingly reclaimed his title as the Jays leadoff man. Considering his recent performances, he’s cemented himself into that promotion as he rides his current form back up to career averages. Don’t overlook the Jays’ slugger against the O’s.
Alex Verdugo ($3,300) vs. Los Angeles Angels
You can’t go wrong cherry-picking some of the more notable names from our projections, but we’re meandering further down the list to highlight Alex Verdugo as a fantasy stud on tonight’s main slate. Verdugo earned a promotion to the New York Yankees leadoff man, enhancing his underappreciated fantasy value.
Verdugo ended July on a hot streak, a pace that he should continue throughout the start of August. The Yankees outfielder totaled ten hits over the final six games of July, with four of those knocks going for extra bags. Moreover, that improved play came at the same time he jumped up the batting order, precipitating a substantive increase in scoring. Verdugo scored 10 times across the six-game sample while driving in two more.
Despite the surge, Verdugo’s traditional stats are still below where we’d expect them to be. The former second-round pick’s .369 slugging percentage is 24 points below expected, and his OBP is 19 points off the mark.
In reconciling his current form with underlying metrics, it’s evident that Verdugo should have no problem continuing his recent onslaught against the lowly Los Angeles Angels. Finding a leadoff man in an offense as potent as the Yankees for just $3,300 is the gold nugget in today’s fantasy river.
