The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Luken Baker ($2,100): First Baseman, St. Louis Cardinals
Somehow, the 27-year-old has managed a positive Plus/Minus since his call-up on August 21 despite just two hits in 22 plate appearances. The Cardinals’ Luken Baker lands near the top of the bargain projections tonight with the hopes he can produce more at the plate.
Through seven games with St. Louis this season, Baker has more RBI (5) than hits (2) with an interesting .133/.364/.400 batting line. He has a 27.3 BB% to bring up his fantasy floor, but the .128 xBA is certainly concerning.
At the dollar bin price tag, he is worth a lineup add in tournament lineups tonight against Marcus Stroman and the Yankees. Stroman is 9-6 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Kevin Gausman ($8,800) at Minnesota Twins
Even with a slightly elevated ERA this season, the Blue Jays know exactly what they are getting in Kevin Gausman on the mound. After a 12-10 record in 2022 and 12-9 record in 2023, Gausman currently sports a 12-9 record so far this season.
His 4.10 ERA and 1.22 WHIP are higher than his recent marks, but the veteran has a strong +2.01 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He is coming off a 10-strikeout performance in his last start, where he posted 36.55 DraftKings Points.
Using Plate IQ, the Twins have a .193 ISO and .338 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Gausman’s 22.2 K% is down from his recent seasons, but the model likes his low walk rate and the Twins low hit projection.
Hitter
Gunnar Henderson ($6,800) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Even with some recent sluggish production, Gunnar Henderson is still one of the best young hitters in the game. He currently sits fourth in the American League with 33 home runs and 102 runs while amassing a .278/.363/.534 overall batting line.
After the All-Star Break, Henderson has cooled off to a .255/.339/.409 mark with just five home runs in 149 at-bats. He has a -4.20 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with just five hits in that span.
Recent production may scare fantasy owners off, but the model likes him to get back on track tonight with a prime matchup in Colorado against Austin Gomber. Gomber is 4-9 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Blake Snell ($10,200) vs. Miami Marlins
Blake Snell tops the pitching projections and pitcher salary chart on tonight’s main slate. The model agrees with Vegas, as the Marlins have one of the lowest implied run totals of any team this season.
After a disastrous start to the season and multiple injury stints during the year, Snell has roared back in July and August with incredible numbers. He finished with a 0.75 ERA in four July starts and is 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA thus far in five August outings.
Snell allows an incredibly low 28.7 hard hit % and .186 xBA while maintaining a high 33.0 K%. Expect a strong performance against a Miami lineup with low projections across the board.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Francisco Lindor ($5,600) at Chicago White Sox
Outside of the juicy Orioles-Rockies matchup, Francisco Lindor is high on the main slate projections with solid recent production. He has a +2.94 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with a 34-point single-game spike along the way.
On the season, Lindor is batting .270/.339/.490 with 28 home runs and 79 RBI. He is third in the National League with 91 runs scored and top-10 with 25 stolen bases. His strong .536 xSLG and .380 wOBA are both well above his career averages.
The Mets have a strong matchup against White Sox hurler Jonathan Cannon. The right-hander is 2-8 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.39 ERA.
Ezequiel Tovar ($5,800) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Fantasy players have a lot of good options in the friendly confines of Coors Field tonight as the Orioles come to town. On the home side, Ezequiel Tovar has shown a high ceiling with 37 DraftKings points on Tuesday against the Marlins.
Tovar is batting .273/.297/.470 on the season with 21 home runs and 62 RBI. He ranks fourth in the National League with 149 hits but also sits second with 169 strikeouts to illustrate his boom-or-bust potential.
The model likes a boom game tonight for Tovar and the Rockies against Albert Suarez. The Orioles righty has been solid this season at 6-4 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 26 appearances.
