The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jake Rogers ($2,600): Catcher, Detroit Tigers
With the short main slate, it’s hard to find many solid bargain options, but the model lands Jake Rogers and most of the Tigers-White Sox matchup near the top of the value rankings tonight.
Rogers is batting just .194/.239/.364 on the season, with nine home runs and 33 RBI in 78 games. He does have an elevated 44.0 hard hit % and .442 xSLG, both above league averages. He posted 23 DraftKings points in his last game on Saturday with three hits and three RBI.
The White Sox trot out 27-year-old Davis Martin to the hill today with an 0-2 record and 3.22 ERA. The right-hander has been solid through four starts, allowing more than two earned runs just once.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Bryce Miller ($8,900) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Bryce Miller has strong numbers this season with a 9-7 record, 3.32 ERA, and 1.02 WHIP. With a 23.5 K%, he lacks the high fantasy upside to land in the fantasy elite tier, but on the short slate, he lands near the top of the upside projections.
Miller has a +1.45 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, with seven positive Plus/Minus results in that span. He allows a .236 xBA and 41.9 hard hit % on the season.
Using Plate IQ, the Rays have a .147 ISO and .299 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They have a low run expectation with low park ratings from both sides of the plate in Seattle.
Hitter
Jake Burger ($5,600) at Colorado Rockies
Without the likes of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani on today’s main slate, other names get pushed up the ceiling charts, and Jake Burger lands in the tip tier tonight in Colorado.
Ninth in the National League with 25 home runs, Burger is batting .246/.300/.471 with 57 RBI. He has a +4.14 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games and is cooking since the All-Star Break with 15 home runs and a .292/.372/.692 batting line.
He gets the Colorado bump today at Coors Field against Ryan Feltner. At 1-10, Feltner has an elevated 5.00 ERA overall and 6.20 ERA at home this season. Burger will be a popular target for fantasy owners on the main slate.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Ryan Pepiot ($8,200) at Seattle Mariners
The pitching matchup in Seattle should be highly targeted by fantasy managers today, with the pitcher-friendly confines and two above-average pitchers dueling. Ryan Pepiot is coming off four straight positive Plus/Minus starts with at least 18 DraftKings points in each.
On the season, Pepiot is 7-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He has a 26.2 K% and allows a .276 wOBA and 39.2 hard hit %.
The Mariners have three high ISO and three high wOBA batters in the lineup tonight with a 27.6 K% against left-handed pitching. They have a high home run projection but low hit and run expectations.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Jesus Sanchez ($4,000) at Colorado Rockies
The Marlins-Rockies matchup takes the two highest implied run totals on the main slate, and Jesus Sanchez is a value priced option to take advantage of the offensive expectations.
Sanchez is batting .237/.295/.415 with 16 home runs and 50 RBI. He has struggled a bit since the All-Star Game with a .217/.297/.391 mark, but he has a +2.13 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He totaled 18 DraftKings points last night with a home run and a pair of RBI.
Rockies’ starter Ryan Feltner is a popular target for fantasy owners with his 1-10 record and 5.00 ERA.
Triston Casas ($5,000) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
After missing most of the season with a rib injury, Triston Casas rejoined the Red Sox on August 16. In his nine games back with the team, he is hitting .343/.410/.543.
Casas put up 24 home runs in 132 games last season and has eight through just 31 games thus far in 2024. He has a strong 90.5 average exit velocity with an elevated .376 wOBA and 12.4 BB%.
He is an interesting play for fantasy owners looking for hitting options outside of the Colorado matchup. The Red Sox face right-hander Jose Berrios on the mound for the Blue Jays with a 12-9 record and a 3.79 ERA.
