The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Will Wagner ($2,500): Second Base, Toronto Blue Jays
When the Toronto Blue Jays decided to sell off as many players as they could at the trade deadline, they knew they would have to get production from other parts of their lineup. While the usual superstars have replenished some of that scoring, the Blue Jays have also benefitted from some unexpected production from up-and-comers stepping in. One of those players who shone since joining the lineup is Will Wagner.
The former 18th-round pick is finally getting a shot with the depleted Blue Jays, and Wagner is making the most of his opportunity. Since being called up on August 12, 2024, the Jays second baseman has a stunning .982 OPS, recording hits in six of his eight outings. He’s been so effective that the AL East basement dwellers immediately promoted him to the cleanup spot, amplifying his fantasy value and run potential.
The most captivating part of Wagner’s ascent is his analytics profile. Wagner is absolutely mashing the ball right now, posting a .578 expected slugging percentage, 57.9% hard-hit rate, and a 52.6% sweet spot rating. Although not qualified, those metrics would all put him within the top 5% of hitters in the MLB.
Arguably, the most appealing aspect of Wagner’s inclusion tonight is that the left-handed slugger gets to tee off right-hander Griffin Canning. The Los Angeles Angels starter has been serving up meatballs all season, and Wagner feasts off righties to the tune of a .765 slugging percentage and 1.376 OPS.
It won’t be long before Wagner rises above value territory, making his inclusion on rosters all the more important tonight.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Dylan Cease ($9,400) vs. New York Mets
Dylan Cease is having a summer for the ages. After a slow start to the 2024 season, the San Diego Padres ace has come to life through the dog days of summer. While the hot, sultry days may be drawing to a close, Cease’s immaculate performances are not.
Since June 26, Cease has been tossing Cy Young-caliber stuff. The 28-year-old has accumulated 57.0 innings pitched across 10 starts, allowing 15 earned runs across that stretch and equaling a 2.37 ERA. Predictably, there’s also been a shortage of baserunners for opposing teams, with Cease limiting opponents to a paltry 0.89 walks and hits per inning pitched.
Still, where we’ve seen the most magic happen is with Cease’s electric strikeout stuff. The hard-throwing righty has sat down 70 batters across his recent sample, translating to an 11.1 K/9 rate and bumping his season-long strikeout percentage up to 31.5%, putting Cease in the 93rd percentile.
Even though he pitched a no-hitter back in July, we have yet to see Cease peak. The former Cy Young runner-up remains above his expected ERA and has complementary metrics supporting ongoing success from the bump. While others will be lining up to roster Paul Skenes, you can set your roster apart by prioritizing Cease on tonight’s main slate.
Hitter
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,500) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Don’t call it a comeback, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been swinging with something to prove over the past month or so. Under constant scrutiny in Toronto, rumors were running rampant that the Blue Jays would try to trade their franchise cornerstone ahead of the MLB trade deadline last month. Instead, they’ve benefitted from his return to AL MVP form as he anchors an untested Jays squad.
Vladdy Jr. has been operating on another level since the start of July. Across that sample, the former AL MVP runner-up has a .702 slugging percentage, recording 13 homers and 30 extra-base hits. As expected, his current form has precipitated improved run production, with Guerrero accounting for 35 runs and 31 RBI over the 43-game sample.
There are two additional factors to consider, validating Vladdy’s spot as our median and ceiling projections leader. First, his production is coming from a completely sustainable place. The Jays slugger 97th percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. Secondly, Canning is a gas can. The combustible Halos pitcher gives up an 8.9% barrel rate and 42.4% hard-hit percentage, ranking in the 26th and 20th percentile, respectively.
Despite the fine fantasy form, Guerrero Jr.’s rostering percentage is on the decline. On a smaller slate, we’ll see some natural growth, but not to where it should be. Vladdy is the man tonight and is deserving of the distinction as our premier batter.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Nick Lodolo ($8,000) vs. Nick Lodolo
There are some noteworthy arms available on tonight’s modest six-game main slate, making it easy to look past Nick Lodolo. But do so at your own peril, as we have lofty expectations for the Cincinnati Reds starter in a crucial showdown versus the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Although he’s been prone to ineffective showings, Lodolo has established himself as a quality middle-of-the-rotation arm. With some more seasoning, we could see him emerge as a top-tier pitcher for years to come.
Lodolo sits in the upper echelon of pitchers, putting together a 3.80 expected ERA and 23.9% strikeout rate. He mixes his four-pitch arsenal magnificently, ranking in the 63rd percentile with a 23.9% whiff rate and the 73rd percentile with a 30.5% chase rate. Those metrics will only improve against a Pirates side that has accumulated the fourth-most strikeouts in the bigs this year.
We also like Lodolo’s prospects of bouncing back after a lackluster showing last time out. The Reds righty was shelled for eight earned runs across 2.1 innings pitched, which was a departure from his more recent efforts. He remains above his expected ERA, implying that it should be a quick turnaround for Lodolo against the Pirates. He should have no problem reaching his fantasy ceiling on Thursday night.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Whit Merrifield ($3,400) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
It’s been a hell of a journey for Whit Merrifield, but he’s finally landed in a spot where he can get back to producing. After falling out of favor with the Toronto Blue Jays last year, Merrifield inked a one-year pact with the Philadelphia Phillies to start the 2024 campaign. His tenure in the City of Brotherly Love was short-lived, with Merrifield getting released partway through the summer.
It took a minor league deal, but the maligned infielder was brought on to help the Atlanta Braves, and he’s made the most of his opportunity. Now he gets to stick it to his former club as the Braves wrap up a three-game set against the Phillies on Thursday night.
Since joining the Braves, Merrifield has recaptured the magic that made him a three-time All-Star. Toting a respectable .790 OPS, the 35-year-old will have ample opportunity to deliver from the leadoff spot against the Phillies.
Not surprisingly, Merrifield reserves his best efforts for southpaws. As a right-handed batter, Merrifield’s slugging percentage jumps 40 points versus lefties, yielding solid run production metrics. He can wield that advantage unforgivingly against contact pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who has given up 19 hits and nine runs across 19.2 innings pitched this month.
According to our aggregate projections, Merrifield rates as one of the top values on the board. We like his chances of reaching his fantasy ceiling and sticking it to his former squad.
Gunnar Henderson ($6,000) vs. Houston Astros
We’re not pulling any punches with our final pick, deferring to Baltimore Orioles slugger Gunnar Henderson as the top shortstop available on the main slate. While he’s been overshadowed by the likes of Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr., Henderson is putting together an MVP-caliber season. But it’s the ideal pitching matchup that puts him over the edge on Thursday.
After a lackadaisical July, Henderson is rounding back into elite form more recently. The former second-round pick has 14 hits over his last 11 games played, totaling four home runs over that stretch. Henderson’s been able to deliver more meaningful run production from the meaty part of the Orioles lineup, driving in nine and coming around to score seven more.
As good as he’s been, we expect Henderson to be in top form against Spencer Arrighetti. The Houston Astros has gotten roughed up in each of his last two starts, giving up a pair of homers in each outing. That’s been an issue for Arrighetti over the past couple of months, as he’s allowed 1.8 home runs per nine innings since the start of July.
Henderson comes with a hefty price tag, but he’s worth the investment. The hard-hitting shortstop has one of the mightiest ceilings on tonight’s main slate, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see him end the night as the top fantasy producer on the docket.
