The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Tyler Black ($2,500): First Base, Milwaukee Brewers
It’s been a tepid run since Tyler Black was summoned back to the Milwaukee Brewers at the start of last week. The former first-round pick has appeared in four contests, recording a lone hit and scoring twice while occupying a spot near the top of the order. The results to this point have been underwhelming, but we expect Black to break out in a big way on Tuesday’s main slate.
With a .091 batting average and slugging percentage since returning to the big leagues, Black is performing well below his expected value across the board. There’s a natural progression component to his ascent, but he also benefits from taking on St. Louis Cardinals starter Erick Fedde. The tall righty is a contact pitcher who is operating well above his expected ERA and gives up way too much barrel contact. Fedde sits in the bottom half of the league in both categories, posting a 3.91 expected ERA and 8.2% barrel rate.
Additionally, the left-handed batting Black has a natural advantage against right-hander Erick Fedde. Seven of his nine hits this year have come off righties, including both of Black’s RBI.
Black is a true value candidate on tonight’s main slate. With modest results to this point, he’ll be overlooked by many but we expect him to reach toward his fantasy ceiling from the middle of the Brewers lineup.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Zack Wheeler ($9,300) vs. Atlanta Braves
A pivotal NL East matchup takes center stage on Tuesday night as the Philadelphia Phillies travel to Truist Park for a showdown against the Atlanta Braves. Philadelphia turns to ace Zack Wheeler in the series opener, putting the Braves at a significant disadvantage at home.
A dominant 2024 campaign has put Wheeler in contention to win the first Cy Young award of his career. The hard-throwing righty ranks among the MLB leaders in most traditional stats, putting together the third-best ERA, fourth-best WHIP, and seventh-most wins in the bigs. Given his current form and solid underlying analytics, we’re expecting an improvement in all three categories before the night is over.
Wheeler has been on an incredible run this month. Through three starts, the two-time All-Star is toting around a minuscule 1.35 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, earning the win in all but one of those outings. That progression was expected as Wheeler was sitting north of his expected ERA to start the month, and he should have no problem sustaining that form against the Braves. He’s given up three or fewer hits in four of his last six starts, dropping his expected batting average to .203 and expected slugging percentage to .354.
While the Braves deserve credit for pumping the brakes on an icy 1-7 stretch, their recent success came against inferior competition. Their backs are against the wall in this one as they take on a Phillies pitcher who has vaulted himself near the top of the Cy Young futures board. We expect Wheeler to enhance his candidacy on Tuesday night, putting together the best fantasy performance among pitchers.
Hitter
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,600) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Winners of five in a row and seven of their last 10, the Kansas City Royals have cemented themselves into an AL wild card position. Bobby Witt Jr. has put his teammates on his back this season, almost single-handedly carrying the Royals back to the postseason. He’s showing no signs of letting up and should have no problem reaching the pinnacle of production against Tyler Anderson and the Los Angeles Angels bullpen.
Witt Jr. has turned the AL MVP conversation on its head. The Royals shortstop has been on another level since the All-Star break, accumulating an MVP-worthy 1.311 OPS, with 28 RBI and 33 runs scored. But with room to grow in his analytics, Witt’s scorching run will continue in Southern California.
Entering tonight’s inter-divisional battle, the former second-overall draft pick has an impressive 1.013 OPS on the season. However, that still leaves him shy of his expected weighted on-base average plus slugging percentage of 1.023. Witt Jr. will have the chance to make up that difference against Anderson. The Angels southpaw sits in the 32nd percentile in barrel rate, dropping his expected ERA to 4.13 and relegating Anderson to the 43rd percentile.
Since the end of June, Witt Jr. has elevated his OPS from .897 to his current standing among the MLB’s best. That ascent continues against Anderson and the Halos, as Witt Jr. ranks among the top hitters available in our median and ceiling projections.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Robbie Ray ($8,600) vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s been a mixed bag of results for Robbie Ray since returning to the San Francisco Giants rotation at the end of last month. The former Cy Young winner has alternated between above and below-average performances while finding his rhythm back in the bigs. But coming off his worst showing yet, we like Ray’s prospects of bouncing back against a lackluster Chicago White Sox side.
Predictably, Ray has been better than his traditional stats imply. His 6.00 ERA is nearly two runs higher than expected, with his opponent’s batting average and slugging percentage also off-kilter. All of those metrics should start to work down toward expected levels following tonight’s battle against the lowly White Sox.
The Southsiders continue to find new levels to sink to. Already with the worst OPS in the majors, Chicago has taken a turn for the worse over the past week. The White Sox collective on-base plus slugging percentage has dropped by 10 points, resulting in diminished run production. All of which benefits Ray and the Giants on Tuesday night.
Ray is the latest beneficiary of the White Sox woes. On top of being a natural progression candidate, the Giants southpaw gets to take on a historically bad opponent in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park. This might be the last time you see Ray in the $8,000 price range, and DFS punters need to take advantage.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Julio Rodriguez ($4,800) vs. Seattle Mariners
Your eyes may gravitate toward some of the big-name sluggers on the Los Angeles Dodgers, but we’ll encourage you to divert your gaze to a promising batter in the opposing dugout. While he’s been overshadowed by some of the more proficient batters, Julio Rodriguez has been on a roll since returning to the Seattle Mariners lineup last week. That upward trajectory carries him into our rankings as one of the best available on the main slate.
After going 0-for-5 in his first game back, J-Rod has rattled off hits in six straight. Over that stretch, he’s tallied two doubles, two runs, and a lone RBI, but we’re expecting more meaningful run production to tie into his improved approach at the plate.
Although he’s improved his standing since returning from an ankle injury, Rodriguez is still well short of where we expect him to be. Despite the struggles throughout the season, J-Rod still has a promising analytics profile. The M’s centerfielder sits in the upper echelon of MLB batters in most advanced categories. His .278 expected batting average and .454 slugging percentage put him in the 86th percentile and 74th percentile, respectively, sitting in the 84th percentile in hard-hit rate and 81st percentile in average exit velocity.
Rodriguez has yet to experience the level of success we’d expect from someone with his analytics profile. We’re seeing greensprouts over his recent sample, but it won’t be long before DFS bettors cultivate a more bountiful harvest. Some of that should come on Tuesday night against the Dodgers, with J-Rod delivering one of the slate-best performances.
Junior Caminero ($3,100) vs. Oakland Athletics
Trades and injuries have impacted the Tampa Bay Rays roster, necessitating production from all parts of the batting order. One player who has been asked to do more is recently called-up infielder Junior Caminero. The highly-touted prospect has delivered since joining the big club and should continue his onslaught against the Oakland Athletics.
Caminero has enjoyed success since joining the Rays last week. The 21-year-old has hits in four of six outings while immediately being shoehorned into the heart of the order. Although he’s enjoyed moderate success, Caminero is still falling short of his expected metrics.
Elite bat speed has precipitated a solid hard-hit rate, leaving Caminero’s actual slugging percentage short of where it should be. Moreover, he’s showing discipline beyond his years, already delivering a 19.2% walk rate in his first week back in the MLB.
Caminero and the Rays are poised to get back to their winning ways against Joey Estes. The Oakland Athletics starting pitcher rates among the worst in the bigs, ranking in the 29th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, barrel percentage, and expected ERA. It’s tempting to gravitate toward more prominent names in the Rays lineup, but Caminero should deliver the most meaningful fantasy performance.
