The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Andrew Benintendi ($2,900): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
It’s been a rough season overall for Andrew Benintendi — and the entire White Sox squad — but he is turning things around in August with a +7.05 average Plus/Minus over he last 10 games.
Benintendi’s season-long .214/.265/.369 hitting line is well below his career average, but he has an elevated .295/.326/.727 line so far this month. He’s hit five of his 13 home runs in August and has tallied 14+ DraftKings points in five of his last nine games.
The White Sox take on right-hander Spencer Arrighetti and his 5-10 record tonight. Arrighetti has a 5.14 ERA and 1.45 WHIP through 21 starts.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Corbin Burnes ($9,700) vs. Boston Red Sox
In his first season with the Orioles, Corbin Burnes is having the best season of his career with a 12-4 record. He is third in the American League with 149.2 innings pitches and second with a 2.71 ERA.
Burnes has a +0.46 average Plus/Minus on the season with a 30.6 hard hit %. His 22.9 K% is below his career average, be he has also dropped his BB% to 5.8.
Using Plate IQ, the Red Sox have a .198 ISO and .356 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Burnes will have six high wOBA and four high ISO hitters in the lineup and will need to lean on his 49.2 ground ball rate to keep runs off the scoreboard.
Hitter
Manny Machado ($5,600) at Colorado Rockies
With the Colorado boost, Manny Machado lands behind only Shohei Ohtani at the top of the ceiling projections on the main slate. His production in 2024 has not lived up to his peak years from 2020-2022, but he still has high ceiling potential in a good situation.
Machado is batting .268/.319/.442 on the season with 18 home runs and 70 RBI. He has a strong 92.2 average exit velocity with a .330 xwOBA and 48.1 hard hit %.
The Padres face Rockies starter Cal Quantrill with a 7-8 record, 4.56 ERA, and 1.41 WHIP. Surprisingly, he has better results at home (3.95 ERA) than on the road (5.10 ERA) this season.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Sean Manaea ($8,700) vs. Miami Marlins
The model likes Sean Manaea in a good matchup tonight at home against the Marlins on the main slate. The Mets lefty is 8-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.23 WHIP on the season.
Manaea has reached the 10-strikeout threshold twice in his last three games despite a moderate 24.2 K%. He allows a .240 xBA and .290 wOBA, both below his career average.
The Marlins have a very low run projection with low park ratings from both sides of the plate. Their projected lineup has a disappointing .108 ISO and .260 wOBA against left-handed pitching on the season.
Manaea has allowed more than three earned runs just once in his last 11 starts. This is a good spot for fantasy owners to bank on a solid return from the Mets hurler.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Luis Arraez ($4,700) at Colorado Rockies
The Padres have by far the highest implied run total on today’s main slate as they open a series at Coors Field. Luis Arraez is a cheaper option in the lineup to take advantage of the plus matchup.
Arraez has four double-digit DraftKings point games in his last six with multiple hits in each of those outings. He continues to lead the National League in batting average with a .307/.339/.381 hitting line.
With only three home runs and 34 RBI, his power stats certainly hold Arraez back from elite fantasy potential. You might expect him to add value on the base paths, but he has only amassed six stolen bases this season. That said, the matchup is great against Cal Quantrill, and the Padres should put runs on the board.
Corey Seager ($5,500) vs. Minnesota Twins
Corey Seager is quietly putting up solid numbers again in Texas with 26 home runs and 63 RBI. His batting line (.274/.355/.499) is well below his 2023 totals, but his 52.1 hard hit % is in the same range as last season.
Seager has a +4.07 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games with five home runs in that span. He has eight home runs and 15 RBI since the All-Star break.
The Rangers face Simeon Woods Richardson on the mound tonight. The Twins righty is 3-3 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in his first full big league season.
