The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Bligh Madris ($2,300): First Baseman, Detroit Tigers
Bligh Madris is well-traveled over the last nine seasons with stops on three major league teams and at least seven minor league squads. His third stint in the big leagues has been his best with a .304/.365/.411 batting line in 18 games with the Tigers.
Through 64 plate appearances, Madris has three doubles, a home run, and five RBI. With the low salary expectations, he is an interesting lineup filler with a +2.15 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
The Tigers host the Mariners with Bryan Woo on the mound. The right-hander is 5-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.88 WHIP through 13 starts. Madris is a low-ownership value option on the main slate.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Robbie Ray ($8,600) vs. Atlanta Braves
After missing almost the entire 2023 season, Robbie Ray makes his fifth start of 2024 tonight at home against the Braves. Ray is 2-1 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 20.1 innings in his first four outings.
Without a ton of recent statistical track record, the model loves Ray’s 33.3 K% to pile up fantasy points. He’s had four previous seasons above a 30.0 K% to prove his strikeout sustainability and is allowing an impressive .196 xBA.
Using Plate IQ, the current rendition of the Braves offense has a .168 ISO and .312 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have a relatively high home run projection but a low total run expectation tonight, with low park ratings from both sides of the plate.
Hitter
Juan Soto ($6,400) at Chicago White Sox
Juan Soto showcased his ceiling potential last night in Chicago with a massive 46-point DraftKings performance. He mashed three home runs with four total RBI and a walk for his best fantasy point total of the season.
He continues to impress at the plate in his first year with the Yankees to the tune of 33 home runs and 86 RBI through 117 games. He has a .306/.434/.608 batting line with a .431 wOBA, 57.4 hard-hit %, and crazy high 18.4 BB%.
With five home runs in his last three games, Soto is poised to continue his high ceiling outputs against Davis Martin. The White Sox righty is 0-1 with a 3.65 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP in three appearances this season.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
David Peterson ($7,300) vs. Oakland Athletics
Far down the salary list, the model loves David Peterson as a value option on the main slate. He sits 15th in pitching salary on the slate but ranks second in the model rating projections.
Peterson has been excellent through his first 12 starts for the Mets with a 6-1 record and 3.34 ERA. The advanced stats paint a little bleaker picture with a 5.42 xERA and .358 xwOBA, but he has found a way to limit those impacts on the scoreboard thus far.
His 18.4 K% limits any high-end upside, but his price tag is more than reasonable against the Athletics tonight. Oakland has four batters in the lineup with strikeout rates above 26% and faces a rough park rating for hitters on both sides of the plate.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Alex Verdugo ($3,500) at Chicago White Sox
The Yankees have by far the highest implied run total on today’s main slate in Chicago. Alex Verdugo is a bargain-priced option to grab a bit of that offensive production without the price tag of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
Verdugo is batting .236/.298/.367 on the season with 10 home runs and 50 RBI. He has a +1.13 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games without a ball leaving the park.
The upside is certainly capped without massive power potential, but Verdugo should have opportunities to drive in runs and score on the base paths tonight against Davis Martin. The White Sox starter is 3-7 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 75.2 big league innings in his career.
Kyle Schwarber ($5,800) vs. Miami Marlins
The ultimate boom-or-bust fantasy proposition, Kyle Schwarber showed his phenomenal ceiling potential with 57.0 DraftKings points on August 7 with three home runs and seven RBI. On the flip side, he has scored a total of 10 points over his last four games.
Overall, Schwarber is hitting .254/.384/.489 on the season with 27 home runs and 74 RBI. He ranks third in the National League with 81 runs and eighth in strikeouts with 137.
The Phillies have a strong matchup at home against Edward Cabrera and the Marlins tonight. Cabrera is 2-3 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.
