MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for August 13

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Daulton Varsho ($3,500): Outfielder, Toronto Blue Jays

Known more prominently for his defense prowess, Daulton Varsho has turned a corner offensively over the past couple of weeks. The Toronto Blue Jays outfielder has seen an uptick in production, precipitating improved scoring and fantasy potential. That comes to a fever pitch on Tuesday night as the Jays continue their inter-divisional series against the Los Angeles Angels.

Varsho’s analytics profile has taken a beating this year, but he’s showing signs of snapping out of his unimpressive funk. The 28-year-old has a .772 OPS in August, putting him ahead of his season-long benchmark of .690. Still, he’s operating below career norms in on-base and slugging percentages, implying that we should see sustained productivity from Varsho over the coming weeks.

Moreover, Varsho’s taken on a more predominant role on offense in the post-trade deadline world. After the Blue Jays shipped off whatever assets they could, there’s been a need for more quality at-bats at the top of the lineup. The former second-round pick has filled that void, earning a promotion to the two-spot, scoring six times across his last ten games.

Varsho has inched toward his fantasy ceiling on several occasions recently, but we like his outlook versus Carson Fulmer. The Angels starting pitcher is a regression candidate, operating substantially ahead of his 4.32 expected ERA and .420 slugging percentage. Those factors play into Varsho continuing his onslaught and delivering another standout fantasy performance.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Michael King ($9,500) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

We have officially reached the point in the MLB season where the San Diego Padres decided to turn it on. Winners of 17 of their past 20, the Padres have encroached on the Los Angeles Dodgers atop the NL West standings. We’re predicting they inch even closer after Tuesday’s showdown versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, extracting maximum fantasy value from probable starter Michael King.

A cornerstone of the Juan Soto trade last offseason, King has been virtually unhittable over his recent schedule. Since June 29, the Padres righty has allowed just 22 hits across 35.2 innings pitched. Combined with the nine walks he’s issued, that puts King at a Cy Young-worthy 0.87 WHIP over his previous six starts. Predictably, that correlates with diminished run production, with King posting a 2.27 ERA over that stretch with four quality starts. That fantasy value is likely to continue against a Pirates squad that has more strikeouts than nearly every other team in the bigs.

Pittsburgh has abandoned all discipline at the plate this season, recording the fifth-most strikeouts in the majors. That standard has looked worse more recently, with the Pirates striking out 127 times over their last 12 games for a 29.3% strikeout rate. That comes at the same time that we’ve seen an uptick in Kings’ effectiveness, with the 29-year-old tallying 42 punchouts across the six-game sample.

Hear ye, hear ye, King will deliver another masterful performance on tonight’s main slate, living up to his billing as our median and ceiling projection leader. There’s nothing the Pirates can do to limit King’s effectiveness, ensuring he represents the pinnacle among tonight’s pitchers.

Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,500) vs. Los Angeles Angels

It’s been easy to look past the Blue Jays this season, particularly after the MLB trade deadline. But for those paying attention, they’ve seen a resurgent Vladimir Guerrero Jr. throughout the dog days of summer. Although his 22-game hit streak came to an end on Sunday, the Blue Jays slugger remains a top threat every time he steps to the plate.

Guerrero Jr.’s improved production was always expected. He continues to rate as one of the top analytics players in the game, sitting in the 97th percentile or higher in expected batting average, slugging percentage, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Along with his top-end barrel rate and bat speed, there’s nothing opposing pitchers can do to slow down Vladdy Jr.

Guerrero has an unfathomable .955 slugging percentage over his last 24 games. Across that sample, Guerrero has swatted ten home runs, one triple, and 12 doubles in 89 at-bats, complemented by 19 additional singles. Equally as impressively, nearly half of those 24 games (11) have been multi-hit efforts. Still, Vladdy remains almost 40 points below his expected slugging percentage, suggesting the best has yet to come.

Of course, those power metrics go hand-in-hand with improved run production. Guerrero Jr. has accounted for 25 runs scored and 22 RBI since breaking out in the middle of July. Fulmer and the Angels bullpen only had gas to the fire in tonight’s contest. We’re expecting another slate-leading effort from Guerrero on Tuesday night.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Paul Blackburn ($7,500) vs. Oakland Athletics

Every once in a while we get a revenge angle so tantalizing that it’s too good to pass up. Just days after getting dealt by the Oakland Athletics, Paul Blackburn gets to take on his former squad in the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field. Blackburn has found his rhythm with the New York Mets, and he’s an undervalued fantasy asset on tonight’s main slate.

Granted, we’re dealing with an exceptionally small sample size, but Blackburn has been solid in two Mets’ starts nonetheless. The 30-year-old has given up just 11 hits in 12.0 innings pitched, striking out 12 while giving up just two earned runs. Those metrics look even more impressive when we consider that he has yet to take to the field in Queens. As such, we could see an even more productive side of Blackburn in tonight’s inter-league showdown.

There’s not much left to say about the Athletics. They remain a bottom-tier MLB team, and their metrics have plummeted even further since the trade deadline. The A’s are operating at a .678 OPS clip, resulting in fewer runs per game and more strikeouts. Those issues will only be compounded against a pitcher who steps to the mound with something to prove against former teammates.

Blackburn’s ceiling isn’t accurately reflected in his salary against the Athletics. He’s pitched two quality starts with improved strikeout metrics since joining the Mets, and we like both of those trends to continue on Tuesday’s main slate.

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MLB DFS Hitters

Juan Soto ($6,100) vs. Chicago White Sox

Few players rival Juan Soto’s analytics profile. The left-handed batting slugger plays in the shadow of Aaron Judge but remains one of the top hitters in the game. He has a natural advantage over righty Jonathan Canon tonight, but there’s even more to like about Soto’s prospects of swinging the hammer on Tuesday night.

Analytically, Soto is superb. He sits in the 100th percentile in expected batting average and slugging percentage, thanks to his 57.4% hard-hit rate, 20.2% barrel rate, and 94.7 mph average exit velocity. Somehow, though, the Yankees outfielder is still 100 points below expected, toting a .586 slugging percentage relative to his expected value of .680.

While he was held hitless in last night’s contest, five of his last nine hits have gone for extra bases, including a two-home run outing over the weekend. Moreover, he’s carrying momentum from July, in which he slugged .670, with 18 of his 31 hits going for extras.

Although he has decent traditional stats, Canon has done nothing to slow down opposing hitters. He sits in the bottom half of the MLB in expected ERA and average exit velocity, consistently getting tattooed by opposing hitters. That’s reflected in his sub-optimal 7.4% barrel and 38.1% hard-hit rates.

Soto and Judge both present compelling options on tonight’s slate, but we’re deferring to Soto in this situation. He has an added advantage of swinging from the left side and his lower salary makes him the better value. Soto is worth the investment in Chi-Town.

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Marcus Semien ($4,800) vs. Boston Red Sox

Our final selection comes from the hitter-friendly matchup between the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox. Entering the night with the highest total on the board, there will be no shortage of fireworks as the Rangers and Bo Sox flaunt their offensive talents. The Rangers have several noteworthy batters worth consideration, but we like what Semien has to offer the most.

The Rangers second baseman ended July on a high note, putting together a sterling .853 OPS in 94 at-bats. While consistency has limited his effectiveness to the start of August, we expect a more robust showing from him on Tuesday. Regression was inevitable after Semien put together a .479 slugging percentage last month, but after dipping to .342 through the first two weeks of August, it’s time for the pendulum to start swinging in the other direction.

Further, Semien matches up well vs. Kutter Crawford. The Red Sox starter has been one of the worst pitchers in terms of barrel rate this season, posting a 10.6% mark and sitting in the 8th percentile. He relies heavily on his four-seamer and cutter, throwing them a combined 65.0% of the time. That plays into Semien’s strengths, as he’s posted a .494 expected slugging percentage versus fastballs this season.

As expected Crawford gives up a stunning amount of home runs. His 27 long fly balls across 131.1 innings pitched are most in the American League, translating to 1.8 home runs per nine innings. Several batters should have no problem getting to him, but we like Semien to do the most damage from the leadoff spot.