The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lawrence Butler ($2,300): Outfielder, Oakland Athletics
Here we are talking about the Oakland Athletics like they’re actually a competitive baseball team. Winners of four of their past five, the Athletics have emerged as an efficient run-scoring team getting production throughout their lineup. Naturally, it’s time to benefit from those top-end fantasy performances.
Today, we’re focusing on Lawrence Butler. The A’s outfielder has been on a productive stretch, but with his sterling analytics profile, we’re anticipating more growth in the short term. Butler has hits in four of his last six, totaling two runs, two extra-base hits, and 43.0 fantasy points over that stretch.
Still, where you’ll see the most promise is in Butler’s underlying metrics. The former sixth-round draft pick is tearing the cover off the ball, ranking in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity and 95th percentile in hard-hit rate, translating to a .516 expected slugging percentage. That is well ahead of his actual benchmark of .342, supporting increased production from Butler.
Mitch Keller will be serving them up on Tuesday night, and Butler is ready to feast. Include the Athletics lead-off man in any lineup or format, and be ready to benefit from one of the top bargains on the board.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Freddy Peralta ($10,000) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Many pitchers have benefited from taking on the beleaguered Tampa Bay Rays early this season, but none more so than Freddy Peralta. His last start notwithstanding, Peralta has been sensational early in 2024, and with a lackluster Rays lineup awaiting him, the Milwaukee Brewers ace should exceed his already lofty standards on Tuesday night.
Granted, Peralta was tagged for five runs in his most recent outing, but clearly that was the outlying performance from an otherwise effective start to the season. Peralta had allowed just five earned runs across his previous four starts, resulting in a 1.90 ERA. More impressively, the former All-Star has been virtually unhittable off the bump. His 33.3% strikeout rate puts Peralta in the 93rd percentile while his 33.8% whiff rate is good enough for the 91st percentile.
Tampa Bay is dealing with a rash of injuries, which has negatively impacted their on-field run production. The Rays are the seventh worst in OPS, equaling just 3.9 runs per game. Worse, they’ve already compiled 270 strikeouts, the seventh most in the bigs.
Peralta is set up for a bounce back effort against an underwhelming Rays squad, and that’s reflected in our modeling. He leads our median and ceiling projections by a wide margin and should have no problems reaching the upper-echelon of those metrics at home. Peralta is a must-roster pitcher tonight.
Hitter
Bryce Harper ($5,900) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Philadelphia Phillies’ West Coast road trip is off to a tremendous start. The World Series contenders swept the San Diego Padres before dropping a nail-biting 6-5 decision to the Los Angeles Angels on Monday night. Philadelphia has gotten by without any meaningful production from Bryce Harper, but we expect him to break out in a big way on Tuesday’s main slate.
Harper has just two hits throughout the Phillies’ four-game road trip, but he’s made those counts. Both of those hits have gone for extra bases, meaning three of his last four hits overall have yielded extra bags, including two homers. That’s the type of power we’ve grown accustomed to with Harper, and he’s poised to continue that against the Halos.
Tyler Anderson is the probable starter for the Angels, and his metrics are much worse than his traditional stats imply. The soft-throwing lefty ranks in the 15th percentile in barrel rate, facilitating an 11.5% success rate for opposing batters. Predictably, this is a factor in inflated expected ERA and slugging percentage. Altogether, Anderson is a regression candidate, and Harper and the Phillies will make him pay.
You don’t have to be scared off by Harper being a left-handed batter. Irrespective of pitcher handedness, his splits this season are virtually identical. Harper is slugging .459 versus southpaws compared to .483 versus righties, with five of his 11 extra-base knocks and eight of his 18 RBI coming against lefties. Consequently, we’re anticipating a show-stopping performance from Harper tonight in LA.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Nick Martinez ($6,400) vs. San Diego Padres
Thankfully, you can offset Peralta’s slate-high salary with one of the lowest. Nick Martinez represents the best value on Tuesday’s main slate, coming in at an affordable $6,400 salary against the San Diego Padres. The Cincinnati Reds righty will have no problem surpassing the implied value of his salary at PETCO Park.
Martinez has had a mixed bag of results early this season. He’s given up three or more runs in three of his five starts while limiting teams to just one combined earned run in his other two starts. Considering the state of the Padres and the pitcher-friendly environment he’ll be operating in, we’re anticipating more of the latter on Tuesday.
San Diego has been one of the worst-hitting teams this week. Losers of five in a row, the Padres have compiled a disastrous .622 OPS and 53 strikeouts over the last seven days. Predictably, this correlates with a steep decline in run production, averaging just 4.3 runs per game over that stretch.
Moreover, Martinez is a natural progression candidate. His expected ERA is nearly two points lower than actual, coming in at a respectable 3.89. Additionally, Martinez has been one of the best pitchers at getting batters to offer at pitches outside the zone, ranking in the 92nd percentile in chase rate. The veteran righty can flex those muscles at PETCO and substantially exceed his median projections against the Padres.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Edouard Julien ($4,400) vs. Chicago White Sox
Quietly, Edouard Julien has established himself as a consistent threat. The Minnesota Twins second baseman ended last year with a robust .840 OPS with modest run production values. Still, he’s dialed up the intensity early in 2024, amplifying his stats, metrics, and fantasy value in every way.
So far this season, Julien has a .522 slugging percentage, which is contributing to an improved .859 OPS, both of which put him among the top 20% of his batters in the MLB. More importantly, those efforts are grounded in sustainable metrics. Julien has above-average analytics, ranking in the 77th percentile in expected slugging percentage, 96th percentile in barrel rate, and 98th percentile in chase rate.
We’ve also seen the best Julien has to offer over his recent sample. The Twins’ second baseman has six hits over his last five outings, including two doubles and two home runs. Surely that upward trajectory continues against Mike Soroka on Tuesday.
At the start of the year, Julien’s salary was hovering in the low $3,000 range. Now, it’s creeping up into the mid $4,000s, reflecting his elite fantasy appeal. Still, there’s value in rostering him at this salary on tonight’s slate.
Kyle Schwarber ($5,500) vs. Los Angeles Angels
We’re going back to Angels Stadium with our final pick, highlighting one more Phillies player with notable if not unsuspecting upside. Curiously, most of Kyle Schwarber’s damage has come off southpaws this season. Still, his ceiling isn’t reflected in his salary, making him one of our preferred value plays on the docket.
For some reason, the left-handed batting Schwarber can’t figure out righties. His .238 OBP and .348 slugging percentage are substantially lower than his southpaw values of .431 and .438, respectively. Moreover, 15 of his 23 hits on the season have come off lefties, representing 11 of his 23 runs scored in fewer plate appearances.
As noted, Anderson is punching above his class lately and due for a letdown. However, few people will expect a pair of left-handed batters to precipitate his demise. That makes Schwarber and Harper a dangerous one-two combo worth rostering and setting your lineups apart from the rest.
